This might also be an argument against 'likely to become'

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/8/1/holder-data-sentencing.html

“'Some proponents describe past records as a 
measure of risk, but what we know is that a 
person’s past record is the product of two 
things: One is engagement in crime and the other 
is the level of surveillance they experience,' 
Ghandnooh said, adding that police forces 
typically have a heavier presence in low-income 
and minority areas ­ making individuals in those 
communities more likely to be arrested in the first place." 



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