Like all list members I support peace initiatives in Cassamance for a variety
of reasons  chief among which is the fact that it threatens the territorial
integrity of my country. Simply put we can't afford  a simmering war of
attrition next to our door step. Sadly President Jammehs' peace initiatives
seemed to have bogged down with both sides looking to be caught up in
procedural wrangles in round after round of negotiations. So far every
meeting seemed to have produced little or no substantial progress. What
emerges primarily is an agreement to schedule further meetings. Meanwhile
moderates within the  rebel delegation continue to loose credibility as each
meeting fails to advance the negotiations in a meaningful way. Rejectionist
and crime syndicates who have come to be a component of the rebel camp use
the lack of progress to increase the level of terror ranging from murdering
civilians to cattle rustling sometimes crossing into Gambian villages. In a
creul paradox the appearance of talks is unwittingly fueling the unrest.
Gambian mediation has so far not succeeded. That is not to say the President
and his team do not wish to succeed, but precisely a wish is about the only
thing this President brings to the table. The history of diplomacy
particularly on matters as seemingly intractable as the Cassamance problem
has taught us that a successful mediating effort would take far more than a
wish. First ,does Yahya Jammeh and his team enjoy a significant amount of
trust  from both interlocutors? Does he have sufficient stature that would
translate to the requisite clout needed to influence one or both sides to
make decisions or concessions that is required to move the talks? My  opinion
is no to both questions . Therein lies the reason why the talks have been
spinning in circles. Gambia has not been able to establish what diplomats
call terms of reference to a degree that would permit the talks to evolve.
Since we come into the talks with the expressed understanding that Senegal's
territorial integrity would have to be maintained, I think Gambia can craft a
term of reference that would have at it's heart significant devolution of
power for the region within a unified Senegal. It would have to incorporate a
concession or two not previously offered by Senegal. The language must be
carefully written so that it does not seem to subjugate other regions within
Senegal or otherwise suggest a binational state.Once that basic outline is
accepted, other  peripheral issues would quickly fall into place. Dr Sedat
Jobe certainly has the finesse to arrange meetings , talk on the phone and
look after other process issues, but when it comes whittling real
concessions, nothing can substitute the personal intervention of a a
respected and credible leader who can nudge a reluctant negotiator. Yahya
Jammeh would always be thanked for offering venue and encouragement and his
offers to continue the mediation are not likely to be spurned by either side,
but he does not have the requisite clout to promptly and successfully bring
an end to the terrible conflict in the Cassamance.

This why I was not the least bit suprised to hear the President-elect of
Senegal today(thursday) on BBC that his first trip outside of Senegal  would
be to Guinea Bissau in a bid to quickly resolve the Cassamance problem.The
folks out there have some influence on the major components of the rebels and
Mr Wade knows theirs is the shortest and surest route to peace. Influence is
the most tangible ingredient in conflict resolution. I am optimistic that
peace can come to Cassamance once and for all.

Karamba

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