February 9, 2017
Aljazeera.com
*Buhari's unclear health situation rings alarm bells for Nigeria's future.*
[image: People hold placards during a rally to show support for Nigeria's
President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja, Nigeria on February 2 [Afolabi
Sotunde/Reuters]]People hold placards during a rally to show support for
Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja, Nigeria on February 2
[Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters]
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/profile/fisayo-soyombo-.html>By
Fisayo Soyombo
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/profile/fisayo-soyombo-.html>
@fisayosoyombo <https://twitter.com/fisayosoyombo>
Fisayo Soyombo was the pioneer editor of Nigerian online newspaper TheCable.
It was Ayodele Fayose, the Governor of Ekiti State, who first said
<https://www.thecable.ng/fayose-everything-under-buhari-is-inconclusive>
everything under the Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari was becoming
inconclusive.
That outburst - and Fayose has quite a litany of complaints against Buhari
- came after Nigeria's electoral umpire declared
<https://www.thecable.ng/breaking-inec-cancels-southern-ijaw> the Bayelsa
State governorship election "inconclusive" on the third day of the exercise.
It was a happy ending for Fayose: Seriake Dickson, candidate of his party, won
the election
<https://www.thecable.ng/breaking-pdps-dickson-re-elected-bayelsa-gov> a
month later. Actually, there was little to worry about in the first place.
One year on, a crisis of monstrous scale and manifold consequences is
brewing. Buhari is on medical vacation in the United Kingdom, and it is so
far inconclusive, even indefinite
<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/muhammadu-buhari-medical-leave-uk-170206042202525.html>
.
The announcement of Buhari's latest vacation on January 19 was itself
inauspicious - not because it was his third in one year, but because he had
asked the National Assembly for 10 days off when he was in fact going to be
away for longer.
Inside Story - Can Muhammadu Buhari turn Nigeria around? (25:05)
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW573fensqU>
That a "10-day vacation" began on January 19, and was to end on February 6,
offered faint indication of the president's much-guarded state of health.
And it was all sudden: Yemi Osinbajo, the man Buhari temporarily handed
power to, abruptly ended his participation at the World Economic Forum in
Davos, Switzerland.
Rumours of hsi death have spread
<https://www.thecable.ng/fact-check-buhari-dead-attempts-suicide-fake-news-booming>on
fake news sites, and it is very worrisome that Buhari has refused to
personally assure the country of his wellness. On one occasion Garba Shehu,
one of his two spokesmen, tweeted
<https://twitter.com/MBuhari/status/823279596598685705> a photo of Buhari
supposedly watching Channels, Nigeria's leading television station, but it
all seemed a cover-up.
The president could have called that same station to address his countrymen
for just a minute. In such an ethnically divided country as Nigeria, such a
move is crucial for the preservation of democratic sanity. With that
assurance still missing, the power grabbers are already at work.
*The fears of the north*
Until May 2010, it seemed inconceivable that a member of a minority ethnic
group would become president.
Were that even to happen, it looked like an outright impossibility that the
north - a region that typically sees the number-one seat as its birthright
- would be the victim of such power transfer.
But when northerner Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, the former president, left Nigeria
for Saudi Arabia in November 2009 to get treatment for pericarditis and
hadn't returned by February 2010, Goodluck Jonathan, from the Ijaw ethnic
group, was formally declared acting president.
With Yar'Adua's death
<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2010/05/20105523627997165.html> three
months later, Jonathan - a man who was chosen as Yar'Adua's running mate
not for his political appeal but for his reputation of "never rocking the
boat
<http://www.vanguardngr.com/2010/01/ag-president-jonathan-shape-of-things-to-come/>"
- became president.
Either Buhari returns to office in earnest to personally oversee the
fulfillment of the promises he made to Nigerians in 2015, or he gives up
the position for someone else who will run his own vision and will be
entirely accountable for the state of the nation.
The north had lost the power it had been impatiently waiting for since the
turn of the Fourth Republic in 1999. Worse still, despite the protests of
the northern elite, Jonathan ran for office, and won in 2010.
The possibility of a repetition of this situation is why the north is
particularly apprehensive over Buhari's extended medical vacation. There is
no chance Buhari's northern friends, already accused of imposing a
political stranglehold over the masses, will watch Osinbajo become
president without a fight - in the event that Buhari is unable to continue
in office owing to ill-health or death.
Despite the denial of rumours that there is pressure
<http://punchng.com/osinbajo-not-pressure-resign/> on Osinbajo, a
southwesterner, to resign, the meeting
<http://www.nairaland.com/3593441/northern-governors-hold-meeting-buratai> of
northern governors with the National Security Adviser Babagana Monguno and
Chief of Army Staff Tukur Buratai has raised eyebrows.
OPINION: One year ago, Buhari promised to change Nigeria
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/03/year-buhari-promised-change-nigeria-160330100241917.html>
Osinbajo himself has, in practice, done very little to dismiss the rumours.
He has been typically calm and self-controlled in his response to matters,
but his incoherence while discussing Buhari's health
<https://www.thecable.ng/just-%e2%80%8ei-spoke-buhari-afternoon-hale-hearty-says-osinbajo>
was a striking giveaway. "I think that the health status of Mr President is
an issue that only Mr President would discuss at the appropriate time," he
said in Abuja on Monday.
"Again, he is running test and all of that. Before you will be able to
determine your health status you must be able to say this is my health
status." Those closing words show Osinbajo is himself in the dark about the
state of the president's health.
Talk to Al Jazeera - Muhammadu Buhari: 'I haven't failed' against Boko
Haram (26:00) <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1QZDA1BFUo>
*Nigeria over Buhari*
Buhari must be honest with himself. At 74, he alone understands his body
and the rigours it can accommodate. He may have temporarily transferred
power to Osinbajo but that's just a procedural constitutional requirement.
Osinbajo will not exercise that power beyond the extent to which he knows
Buhari would want him to. And, quite frankly, that is not what Nigeria
needs at the moment.
Either Buhari returns to office in earnest to personally oversee the
fulfillment of the promises he made to Nigerians in 2015, or he gives up
the position for someone else who will run his own vision and will be
entirely accountable for the state of the nation.
With the Nigerian currency naira falling to an all-time low, companies *folding
<http://businesshilights.com.ng/272-firms-collapsed-due-to-restricted-421-items-form-forex-access-lcci/>*,
and the cost of living *on the rise
<https://www.thecable.ng/how-govt-policies-lower-living-standards-push-millions-of-nigerians-into-poverty>*,
there were protests against Buhari's government across the country on
February 6. There was no news from Buhari and his vice president could not
be held wholly accountable.
For all his failings, Jonathan remains a hero for conceding the 2015
election. Buhari will be a far bigger one were he to concede the presidency
to a fitter candidate if his health deteriorates further.
In his absence, the hawks will be hovering over Osinbajo, and the
behind-the-scenes power play won't result in any meaningful national
development. Buhari must spare Nigeria the political heartbreak of
governance by an absentee president.
*Fisayo Soyombo was the pioneer editor of Nigerian online newspaper
TheCable.*
*The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.*
--
Ann Marie
"The art of living consists of knowing what to pay attention to and what to
ignore." -- Mardy Grothe
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