The writer is general Secretary of the South African Communist Party....



The Future of Socialism

 By Jeremy Cronin <[log in to unmask]>

 Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels realised one and a half centuries ago
that
 the future of socialism was intimately linked to the future of
capitalism.
 Browse the Communist Manifesto (written in 1848) and you may be
surprised
 to find it is, in part, a eulogy to capitalism.  It praises
capitalism's
 spirit of innovation, its restless energy that spans the world and
creates
 the basis for global unity for the first time in human history.

 There is just one problem.  All of this impressive dynamism is driven,
not
 by global solidarity, but by private profit-taking.  The Marxist vision
of
 a communist future was, then, not about the abolition of all that
 capitalism was building, but about socialising the possibilities
manifest
 in the first great wave of globalisation 150 years ago.  If socialism
is
 to have a future, then it has to re-connect with this original thought.

 A discussion of the future of socialism must also address itself
candidly
 to the immediate past of socialism.  In the 20th century there have
been
 two major socialist projects. The one, in key parts of the developed
 North, was social democracy.  The other, largely in the East and South,
 took inspiration from the 1917 Bolshevik revolution.  These two
currents
 split, in the course of the First World War, what had been a common
 international socialist movement.

 The differences between them have often been noted.  The one nurtured
for
 some 25 years after World War 2 welfare states that achieved admirable
 levels of civilisation. The other, in the name of "communism", led vast
 and often authoritarian Third World modernisation programmes in the
 formerly feudal Eurasian expanses of a Russia and China.

 Less remarked upon are the similarities in both the social democratic
and
 communist projects of our century.  Both were focused, rather
exclusively,
 on state power as a commanding height to be captured, by election or
 insurrection.  Both came to be associated with narrow party political
 projects, straying into bureaucratisation and away from the
pluralistic,
 social movement base that had been a feature of 19th century socialism.

 Both have also foundered, to some extent, on the increasing
globalisation
 of production.  The cross-class social pacts that underpinned the
welfare
 state were, by the mid-1970s, increasingly dumped by Swedish or German
 capitalists.  These national bourgeoisies, having retrieved
 competitiveness, thanks to post-war, state-led, national reconstruction
 programmes, now preferred to reap super-profits in the Third World,
rather
 than paying taxes for social infrastructure at home.

 On the other side, the attempt to build socialism in one country, and
then
 in one bloc, collapsed at the beginning of the 1990s.  The walls, built
to
 keep capitalism out, became prison walls for the communist project
itself.

 If socialism is to have a future, it cannot be based on a mechanical
 repetition of its own recent past.

 But what about capitalism?  It has proved to be remarkably resilient
 through this century.  But I agree with a growing body of international
 opinion - ranging from Fidel Castro to George Soros - that despite its
 seeming vitality, contemporary capitalism is in a deep-seated systemic
 crisis.

 In brief, this crisis, which dates back to 1973, is one of several long
 cycle (as distinct from shorter business cycle) downturns in the world
 capitalist economy.  As with similar periods of structural crisis -
 1825-45, 1872-92, and 1929-48 - at heart, it is a crisis of
 over-accumulation and declining profitability.

 Historically, capitalism has surpassed these crises through the mass
 destruction of capital (in war), through externalising costs by
depleting
 the environment and plundering non-renewable resources, by frenetically
 intensifying production, and by extending production to new areas of
the
 globe in which work forces are non-unionised and labour is cheap.

 In an era of nuclear weapons, of growing and irreparable environmental
 degradation, and of new union movements from South Korea to Brazil,
each
 of these options is increasingly foreclosed.

 More than in previous systemic crises, we have also seen over the last
25
 years the dramatic "financialisation" of the global economy - the real
 economy of production is now dangerously dwarfed by a casino economy,
 involving vast flows of speculative hot money.  These flows are both a
 response to, and a frightening symptom of the present crisis.

 We cannot go on like this.  But that does not mean humanity will
realise
 in time, with sufficient coherence and purpose, that the private and
 corporate profit-taking logic, that still drives our world, is also
 driving us all over the edge.

 Capitalist crises give birth to a range of responses - many of them
 entirely negative, like fascism and nazism in the 1930s, or xenophobic
 religious fundamentalism in the present.

 The future of socialism lies in joining with a wide array of
progressive
 forces - with those concerned about the environment, or global
inequality,
 or preserving and deepening democratic institutions, or overcoming
gender
 oppression, or with those who, perhaps from religious conviction, are
 alarmed at the commercialisation of social relations and the loss of
human
 solidarity.

 While socialism requires, no doubt, dedicated political parties, it
needs
 also to broaden, pluralise and socialise itself in a shared project of
 human civilisation.  That is its future.

 Jeremy Cronin
 Deputy General Secretary,
 South African Communist Party


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