i have seen the telegraph be right on and i have seen them appear to be fools.
with this i think they are probably on target.
--- On Mon, 11/3/08, KE Cleveland <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> From: KE Cleveland <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: FW: How would Britain cope with a pandemic?
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Date: Monday, November 3, 2008, 7:38 PM
> OK, something serious to think about vis-a-vis how the
> world-at-large will
> deal with a pandemic and how this just might play out in
> socialized settings
> of which we speak.
>
> The following article/opinion piece is from the UK
> Telegraph. I can't speak
> to the Telegraph's journalistic veraacity, but
> they're not very far off the
> mark on projections of influenza infection and mortality.
>
> So, let's say best case scenario we have a 30% CFR.
> That's a little low
> from the modelling I've seen, but it's a start.
> Now with this particular
> round of the flu, you'll have not one, but three surges
> of infection with
> about a 60% infection rate. Let's have a round number
> of 100 people in a
> given population. Over the 9 months of active pandemia, 60
> people will
> become infected, some 20 will die.
>
> Now, let's multiply our scale and add 4 zeros to our
> population, giving us
> 1,000,000. Of those, 600,000 will contract active
> infections, 200,000 will
> perish--without intervention. So what do we have for
> intervention? Ah,
> yes, we have the golden bullet oseltamivir (Tamiflu). Our
> collective
> governments pat us on the head and tell us no worries
> because we'll have
> prophylaxis for all! Oops... what they forgot to tell us
> is that news from
> Vietnam is indicating that viral suppression is incomplete
> in that nation's
> clinic (the most comprehensive H5N1 treatment facility in
> the world, oddly
> enough). That means...resistance. Kind of like antibiotic
> resistant
> bacteria--same idea. Tamiflu is quickly becoming old news
> on the flu front
> and that's not good because the World Health
> Organization has invested a lot
> of capital (human and otherwise) in advising nations to
> stockpile Tamiflu.
> The golden bullet turns out to be brass after all.
>
> Here's the catch: NO ONE has immunity (yet) to this
> virus. And it's not
> whacking the old and the babies this time around. It's
> a repeat of the 1918
> scenario where the population with the highest morbidity
> and mortality is in
> the 20-40 year-old range. Why? Well epidemiologists think
> it will be due
> to something called "cytokine storms" (look it
> up, it's windy).
>
> Ok, lets lowball and say we have a few 10K infections in
> our 1M population.
> The majority of these folks will be really sick, but
> "stay home from work"
> sick, not deathly sick. There will, however, be a fairly
> large cohort of
> young adults who will get very, very ill. They will
> require intensive
> supportive care as they transition into full-blown
> pneumonia. Let's say out
> of our 1M populatiion, 1,000 are critically ill (these
> figures are wa-a-a-y
> below expectations) and need ventilation. Our city of 1M
> has 50 vents, max
> (I'm dreamin' here), so that means 950 people are
> going to die without
> intervention--which is not available. Who is going to
> triage those 1000
> patients who have an equal chance of living or dying with
> treatment? The
> government? What makes the local Health Department or the
> CDC the authority
> on who lives or who dies? Because they "are".
> The government appoints
> itself the authority, and once it has the authority it
> ain't coming back.
> That's the plan and that's Socialism.
>
> Read the following. I think it's foretelling.
>
> Kyle
> ------------------------------
> *From:* [log in to unmask] on behalf of Tim
> *Sent:* Mon 11/3/2008 9:41 AM
> *To:* [log in to unmask]
> *Subject:* How would Britain cope with a pandemic?
>
> How would Britain cope with a pandemic?
>
> Via *The Telegraph*, : Flu epidemic anniversary: How would
> modern Britain
> cope with an influenza
> pandemic?<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/health/3330052/Flu-epidemic-anniversary-How-would-modern-Britain-cope-with-an-influenza-pandemic.html>Excerpt:
>
> "So many were ill that only the worst could be
> visited," recalled a GP's son
> from Lancashire. "People collapsed in their homes, in
> the streets and at
> work... All treatment was futile."
>
> The symptoms of the 'Spanish' influenza –
> so-called because Spain, as
> opposed to countries involved in the conflict, did not
> censor reports of the
> spreading plague - included a hacking cough, projectile
> nose bleeds, and a
> condition known as heliotrope cyanosis, a dark-blue
> discoloration caused by
> shortage of oxygen to the lungs.
>
> Unlike most strains, it did not just strike the very young
> and old but also
> the 20-40-year-old age group. Around 228,000 Britons
> perished, and
> worldwide, it killed at least 50 million – ten times as
> many as had died in
> the war.
>
> Now, as the world faces the prospect of a new pandemic -
> mostly likely
> triggered by the bird flu virus H5N1 - the question has to
> be asked: how
> would Britain cope with a similar outbreak today?
>
> In the event of a repeat of 1918, the Department of Health
> calculates that a
> quarter of the UK population could fall sick over a
> fifteen-week period and
> 375,000 people could die. But the Armageddon scenario is
> that a new avian
> virus could have an even worse impact - resulting in more
> than 450,000
> deaths.
>
> One of the last Britons still living who remembers
> the'Spanish Lady,' is Ada
> Darwin, a 98-year-old who lives in Chester. She was seven
> when influenza
> killed her younger brother and both her parents.
>
> "There were black horses with plumes made from ostrich
> feathers, then the
> gun carriage with my dad's coffin covered with the
> union flag," she recalls.
>
>
> "My mother's coffin was in a big glass hearse with
> Noel's coffin under the
> driver's seat. My grandma told us my mother had gone to
> Jesus, but I said,
> 'Jesus has got plenty of people, I want my
> mummy.'"
>
> Britain's Monty Python, of course, long ago taught us
> always to look on the
> bright side of life. But we really have no reason to
> suppose the case
> fatality ratio in the next pandemic will fall into the 2%
> range experienced
> by most industrial nations. (The CFR seems to have been
> much higher in
> countries like India, and approached 100% in small Native
> communities in
> Alaska and northern Canada.)
>
> We've had a welcome respite from human cases for
> several months, but the
> case fatality ratio remains around 60% worldwide and 80% in
> Indonesia. We're
> often told that when H5N1 becomes easily transmitted
> between humans, it will
> lose much of its virulence.
>
> Well, maybe. If someone can cite evidence for this
> assertion, please send it
> to me. But we should at least consider the possibility of
> H2H avian flu with
> its present CFR. As Dr. Samuel Johnson, another wise
> Briton, famously
> observed, "Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is
> to be hanged in a
> fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully."
>
> November 02, 2008 at 04:51 PM |
> Permalink<http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/11/how-would-brita.html>
>
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