you should not be the only one.
--- On Mon, 11/3/08, KE Cleveland <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> From: KE Cleveland <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: Re: FW: How would Britain cope with a pandemic?
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Date: Monday, November 3, 2008, 7:50 PM
> Ok, for dramatic effect here, I'll make my final point:
>
> Kendall pointed to discrimination based on Asian/Middle
> Eastern lineage. In
> the flu scenario it will be the folks who have the best
> chance of recovery
> based on prima facie evidence. That's going to leave
> out the disabled. Is
> there empirical proof that folks with disabilities as a
> whole have poorer
> respiratory functionality than folks without? No, but this
> is how things are
> going to fall out. Epidemiology will be used to determine
> treatment--not
> the doctor/nurse in the triage room.
>
> Am I the only one that sees a parallel here?
>
> On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 7:38 PM, KE Cleveland
> <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> > OK, something serious to think about vis-a-vis how
> the world-at-large
> > will deal with a pandemic and how this just might play
> out in socialized
> > settings of which we speak.
> >
> > The following article/opinion piece is from the UK
> Telegraph. I can't
> > speak to the Telegraph's journalistic veraacity,
> but they're not very far
> > off the mark on projections of influenza infection and
> mortality.
> >
> > So, let's say best case scenario we have a 30%
> CFR. That's a little low
> > from the modelling I've seen, but it's a
> start. Now with this particular
> > round of the flu, you'll have not one, but three
> surges of infection with
> > about a 60% infection rate. Let's have a round
> number of 100 people in a
> > given population. Over the 9 months of active
> pandemia, 60 people will
> > become infected, some 20 will die.
> >
> > Now, let's multiply our scale and add 4 zeros to
> our population, giving us
> > 1,000,000. Of those, 600,000 will contract active
> infections, 200,000 will
> > perish--without intervention. So what do we have for
> intervention? Ah,
> > yes, we have the golden bullet oseltamivir (Tamiflu).
> Our collective
> > governments pat us on the head and tell us no worries
> because we'll have
> > prophylaxis for all! Oops... what they forgot to tell
> us is that news from
> > Vietnam is indicating that viral suppression is
> incomplete in that nation's
> > clinic (the most comprehensive H5N1 treatment facility
> in the world, oddly
> > enough). That means...resistance. Kind of like
> antibiotic resistant
> > bacteria--same idea. Tamiflu is quickly becoming old
> news on the flu front
> > and that's not good because the World Health
> Organization has invested a lot
> > of capital (human and otherwise) in advising nations
> to stockpile Tamiflu.
> > The golden bullet turns out to be brass after all.
> >
> > Here's the catch: NO ONE has immunity (yet) to
> this virus. And it's not
> > whacking the old and the babies this time around.
> It's a repeat of the 1918
> > scenario where the population with the highest
> morbidity and mortality is in
> > the 20-40 year-old range. Why? Well epidemiologists
> think it will be due
> > to something called "cytokine storms" (look
> it up, it's windy).
> >
> > Ok, lets lowball and say we have a few 10K infections
> in our 1M
> > population. The majority of these folks will be
> really sick, but "stay home
> > from work" sick, not deathly sick. There will,
> however, be a fairly large
> > cohort of young adults who will get very, very ill.
> They will require
> > intensive supportive care as they transition into
> full-blown pneumonia.
> > Let's say out of our 1M populatiion, 1,000 are
> critically ill (these figures
> > are wa-a-a-y below expectations) and need ventilation.
> Our city of 1M has
> > 50 vents, max (I'm dreamin' here), so that
> means 950 people are going to die
> > without intervention--which is not available. Who is
> going to triage those
> > 1000 patients who have an equal chance of living or
> dying with treatment?
> > The government? What makes the local Health
> Department or the CDC the
> > authority on who lives or who dies? Because they
> "are". The government
> > appoints itself the authority, and once it has the
> authority it ain't coming
> > back. That's the plan and that's Socialism.
> >
> > Read the following. I think it's foretelling.
> >
> > Kyle
> > ------------------------------
> > *From:* [log in to unmask] on behalf of Tim
> > *Sent:* Mon 11/3/2008 9:41 AM
> > *To:* [log in to unmask]
> > *Subject:* How would Britain cope with a pandemic?
> >
> > How would Britain cope with a pandemic?
> >
> > Via *The Telegraph*, : Flu epidemic anniversary: How
> would modern Britain
> > cope with an influenza
> pandemic?<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/health/3330052/Flu-epidemic-anniversary-How-would-modern-Britain-cope-with-an-influenza-pandemic.html>Excerpt:
> >
> > "So many were ill that only the worst could be
> visited," recalled a GP's
> > son from Lancashire. "People collapsed in their
> homes, in the streets and at
> > work... All treatment was futile."
> >
> > The symptoms of the 'Spanish' influenza –
> so-called because Spain, as
> > opposed to countries involved in the conflict, did not
> censor reports of the
> > spreading plague - included a hacking cough,
> projectile nose bleeds, and a
> > condition known as heliotrope cyanosis, a dark-blue
> discoloration caused by
> > shortage of oxygen to the lungs.
> >
> > Unlike most strains, it did not just strike the very
> young and old but also
> > the 20-40-year-old age group. Around 228,000 Britons
> perished, and
> > worldwide, it killed at least 50 million – ten times
> as many as had died in
> > the war.
> >
> > Now, as the world faces the prospect of a new pandemic
> - mostly likely
> > triggered by the bird flu virus H5N1 - the question
> has to be asked: how
> > would Britain cope with a similar outbreak today?
> >
> > In the event of a repeat of 1918, the Department of
> Health calculates that
> > a quarter of the UK population could fall sick over a
> fifteen-week period
> > and 375,000 people could die. But the Armageddon
> scenario is that a new
> > avian virus could have an even worse impact -
> resulting in more than 450,000
> > deaths.
> >
> > One of the last Britons still living who remembers
> the'Spanish Lady,' is
> > Ada Darwin, a 98-year-old who lives in Chester. She
> was seven when influenza
> > killed her younger brother and both her parents.
> >
> > "There were black horses with plumes made from
> ostrich feathers, then the
> > gun carriage with my dad's coffin covered with the
> union flag," she recalls.
> >
> >
> > "My mother's coffin was in a big glass hearse
> with Noel's coffin under the
> > driver's seat. My grandma told us my mother had
> gone to Jesus, but I said,
> > 'Jesus has got plenty of people, I want my
> mummy.'"
> >
> > Britain's Monty Python, of course, long ago
> taught us always to look on
> > the bright side of life. But we really have no reason
> to suppose the case
> > fatality ratio in the next pandemic will fall into the
> 2% range experienced
> > by most industrial nations. (The CFR seems to have
> been much higher in
> > countries like India, and approached 100% in small
> Native communities in
> > Alaska and northern Canada.)
> >
> > We've had a welcome respite from human cases for
> several months, but the
> > case fatality ratio remains around 60% worldwide and
> 80% in Indonesia. We're
> > often told that when H5N1 becomes easily transmitted
> between humans, it will
> > lose much of its virulence.
> >
> > Well, maybe. If someone can cite evidence for this
> assertion, please send
> > it to me. But we should at least consider the
> possibility of H2H avian flu
> > with its present CFR. As Dr. Samuel Johnson, another
> wise Briton, famously
> > observed, "Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows
> he is to be hanged in a
> > fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully."
> >
> > November 02, 2008 at 04:51 PM |
> Permalink<http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/11/how-would-brita.html>
> >
> > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
> > You received this message because you are subscribed
> to the Google Groups
> > "TheBirdFlu" group.
> > To post to this group, send email to
> [log in to unmask]
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
> >
> [log in to unmask]<[log in to unmask]>
> > For more options, visit this group at
> > http://groups.google.com/group/thebirdflu?hl=en
> > -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
> >
> >
> >
>
> -----------------------
>
> To change your mail settings or leave the C-PALSY list, go
> here:
>
> http://listserv.icors.org/SCRIPTS/WA-ICORS.EXE?SUBED1=c-palsy
-----------------------
To change your mail settings or leave the C-PALSY list, go here:
http://listserv.icors.org/SCRIPTS/WA-ICORS.EXE?SUBED1=c-palsy
|
