Ken,
The predominant seasonal flu for the 2008-2009 year (also an A/H1N1 variant) was darn near 100% oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistant in Europe and North America. Fortunately, we have a couple more arrows in the quiver--Zanamivir (Relenza) (which did quite well in Europe), Amantadine (Symmetrel) and Rimantadine (Flumadine). The last two have a different mechanism than Tamiflu or Relenza, but (at least in the US) there's not much of either in the National Stockpile.
Unfortunately, there's no quick assay for sub-typing a flu virus. Heck, for the most part, all of the states are still shipping samples to CDC for analysis. So what's going to happen is that every parent with a snotty-nosed kid is going to go either to the ER or doc's office and demand that their kid get a course of Tamiflu. There won't be time for any sort of real diagnosis, and the physicians won't have the gears to tell Mom or Dad, "No". Before you know it we'll have the viral equivalent of MRSA.
We're already handing out Tamiflu "prophylactically" to folks who have been exposed to the Sw A/H1N1 before they're even symptomatic--and this flu is presenting, for the most part, as really, really mild. If it returns this fall, it probably will produce more than just mild cold symptoms, and by that time we'll have already shot ourselves in the foot.
Kyle
-----Original Message-----
From: Cerebral Palsy List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of ken barber
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2009 12:25 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Time to wake up the list, if possible
i hardly hear from them unless i email. out of sight out of mind. they answer if i email. the last thing i got was not whether they needed the swine flu H1N1 in the soup this next year, but how to guess how it would mutate. what they got to work with now could be put in but the virus is expected to mutate and one even said if there was much treatment with antivirals this sprint the fall mutant might be antiviral resistant. it is important to know that the people i hear from are support staff and not researchers and are really just giving me the rumors.
--- On Mon, 5/11/09, Kendall D. Corbett <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> From: Kendall D. Corbett <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: Re: Time to wake up the list, if possible
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Date: Monday, May 11, 2009, 11:56 AM
> But for those on the list who keep
> kosher....? ;-{)}
>
> Peter and Ken, thanks for the undoubtedly well researched
> info on the
> vaccine! Coming from you two, I'm convinced! I
> didn't get the vaccine this
> year - I went to get it, put my latex allergy on the
> form, and they said to
> get it at my doctor's office, as the stopper in the vaccine
> bottle might
> contain latex. I then forgot. I'll put it on my
> calendar for late summer
> or early fall. I heard once that that's a target date
> of having the best
> guess on the new iteration of the vaccine. Any info
> on that Ken, from
> insiders at the CDC?
>
> On Sun, May 10, 2009 at 8:49 PM, ken barber <[log in to unmask]>
> wrote:
>
> > eggs and dead flu virus i think is the simplest way to
> explain it but since
> > we are talking swine flu think ham and eggs. :-)
> >
> > --- On Sun, 5/10/09, Tamar Raine <[log in to unmask]>
> wrote:
> >
> > > From: Tamar Raine <[log in to unmask]>
> > > Subject: Re: Time to wake up the list, if
> possible
> > > To: [log in to unmask]
> > > Date: Sunday, May 10, 2009, 10:44 PM
> > > how / what do they make flu shots
> > > from? not sure i want anything other than human
> dna.
> > >
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > Tamar
> > >
> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > > Tamar Mag Raine, Commissioner,
> > >
> > > Oakland Mayor's Commission on People with
> Disabilities
> > >
> > > [log in to unmask]
> > > http://www.zazzle.com/TamarMag*
> > > www.cafepress.com/tamarmag
> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ________________________________
> > > From: ken barber <[log in to unmask]>
> > > To: [log in to unmask]
> > > Sent: Sunday, May 10, 2009 7:32:50 PM
> > > Subject: Re: Time to wake up the list, if
> possible
> > >
> > > yes, it is next years mutation that they are
> worried about.
> > > with human, bird, and swine DNA it could mutate a
> lot of
> > > different ways.
> > >
> > > --- On Sun, 5/10/09, Peter Hunsberger <[log in to unmask]>
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > > From: Peter Hunsberger <[log in to unmask]>
> > > > Subject: Re: Time to wake up the list, if
> possible
> > > > To: [log in to unmask]
> > > > Date: Sunday, May 10, 2009, 1:58 AM
> > > > That's a very bad assumption.
> > > > Just so happens, if you got your flu shot
> > > > this year you are mostly protected from the
> current
> > > version
> > > > of the swine flu
> > > > (as far as we know at the moment). The
> reason
> > > being,
> > > > that the people doing
> > > > the predicting guessed correctly on one of
> what was
> > > likely
> > > > to be the most
> > > > likely new variants to show up this
> year, Not
> > > getting
> > > > the flu shot each
> > > > year greatly increases your odds of catching
> the flu.
> > > > I'll be attending a lecture on Monday by one
> of the
> > > people
> > > > who heads up the
> > > > effort to make the predictions, part of the
> talk is
> > > about
> > > > how they pick
> > > > which flu variants are most likely to show
> up. I
> > > can
> > > > already tell you its
> > > > an extremely set of sophisticated set of
> predictions
> > > that
> > > > takes into account
> > > > mutation rates (among other things).
> Please
> > > don't put
> > > > your health and the
> > > > health of others around you at risk, get
> your flu
> > > shots
> > > > every year!
> > > >
> > > > On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 2:34 PM, Tamar Raine
> <[log in to unmask]>
> > > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > Yeah, your conclusion is right,
> Virginia, One
> > > reason I
> > > > don't get flu shots
> > > > > is they make them based on last year's
> flu. They
> > > can't
> > > > really predict it.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Peter Hunsberger
> > > >
> > > > -----------------------
> > > >
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> > >
> > >
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>
>
> --
>
>
> Kendall
>
> An unreasonable man (but my wife says that's redundant!)
>
> The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the
> unreasonable one
> persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
> Therefore, all progress
> depends on the unreasonable man.
>
> -George Bernard Shaw 1856-1950
>
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