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From: f ossia <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To: African Association of Madison <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Fooling people some of the time
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2007 15:40:34 +0000


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Fooling people some of the time
Herman J. Cohen

The International Herald Tribune

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

WASHINGTON

The president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, is America's friend. The Bush Administration admires his leadership in promoting conflict resolution, peacekeeping, and democracy in Africa. Some American friends are promoting him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Unfortunately, Obasanjo's role in Nigeria's internal affairs has been far less laudable. His energy policies have done little to alleviate Nigeria's crushing poverty and social unrest. Moreover, as Obasanjo enters the final months of his second four-year term, he is subverting his country's fragile democracy in order to prolong his personal power.

Obasanjo began to monopolize power from the day he entered office in 1999. He kept the oil portfolio for himself so that he could use Nigeria's vast oil wealth for political ends. All politicians were beholden to him for money. He established an anti-corruption commission. But the record shows that his friends were exempt and his enemies were investigated whether or not they had dirt on their hands. He also manipulated the awarding of contracts and mineral concessions to intimidate potential rivals.

In late 2005, Obasanjo began promoting the idea that only he could complete the reforms he had initiated as president. It was necessary, therefore, to amend the Constitution to enable him to run for a third term. He launched a major campaign to pressure the state governors and the two houses of the Federal Parliament to support the amendment. Bribes of as much as $400,000 were reportedly offered to senators and representatives. Governors who refused to cooperate were threatened with impeachment for corruption.

Fortunately, Obasanjo had become so unpopular that the members of Parliament knew that voting for a third term would be political suicide. The constitutional amendment failed in the Senate and thus died before it could get off the ground.

But instead of accepting this verdict, Obasanjo decided to choose his own successor in a way that would allow him to manipulate power after leaving office. First, he used the anti-corruption police to intimidate presidential aspirants like Vice President Abubacar Atiku and a former president, Ibrahim Babangida.

Then he short-circuited the primary elections in the governing People's Democratic Party to impose his own nominee as the party's presidential candidate, the governor of Katsina state, Umaru Yar'Adua. He also imposed an amendment to the governing party's rules requiring that the chairman of the board of governors be a former head of state. Obasanjo is now the only person eligible for that post. From there, he clearly aims to manipulate power after he leaves office.

If Yar'Adua wins the election, he will need to obey Obasanjo's directives and appoint Obasanjo's people if he wants a second term.

Obasanjo is also doing everything to make it impossible for the vice president to run. Atiku has been ejected from the party, which resulted in Obasanjo declaring the vice presidency to be vacant. Fortunately, the still-independent courts declared Obasanjo's action unconstitutional.

While Obasanjo engages in undemocratic tactics, the Independent National Electoral Commission, which is under the president's thumb, is stalling in its preparations for the voting in April. Clearly, the objective is to prevent new voters from registering because they would be most likely to vote against Obasanjo's candidate.

In addition to his efforts to undermine democracy, Obasanjo has little to boast about after eight years in power. There has been no noticeable reduction in poverty levels despite the surge in oil revenues from Nigeria's daily production of 2.5 million barrels. The government-owned oil refineries are producing less now than at the beginning of his first term.

Other government-owned industries and utilities continue to be moribund. Obasanjo has done nothing to alleviate the deep insufficiency of electric power, a problem that has caused many factories to close, including the French investor Michelin Tires.

Retired civil servants and local business suppliers are not getting paid. Violence in the oil-producing Delta region has grown worse. As much as 20 percent of Nigeria's oil exports are being stolen or disrupted by the insurgency.

Finally, Obasanjo has hardly dented the colossal problem of corruption. As much as $600 billion in ill- gotten gains sit in foreign bank accounts while the rural farmers live on less than a dollar a day.

The voters are not likely to be fooled. But the April election may not be the first in Nigeria to be rigged by the incumbent, if it actually takes place.

Copyright © 2007 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com

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