If the rumour is anything to go by then President Jammeh's 18-month leave of absence may not herald any good tidings. "What are you saying, Hamadi,?" someone might be thinking.  " We want to get rid of this guy".  Yes, we (or at least most of us) do.  But, I may be pessimistic in thinking that unless he resigns with his government or gets defeated at the ballot box his long absence will cause trouble.  In my opinion, Mr. Jammeh's departure will create a power vacuum in which the APRC, the 22nd July Movement, disgruntled politicians, and the greatest threat, the Gambia National Army, will vie for power and draw the country into lawlessness and chaos.

The APRC

Since the April Massacre there has been a growing schism within the APRC leadership.  The April incidents, the firing of Kabba Bajo, the hiring and firing of sympathisers, the blatant corruption, etc. have tarnished the party's image and eroded the confidence of their support base. Some of the cowards within the party ranks and from the leadership will start talking as soon as the cat is away. 

22nd July Movement

Headed by Libya-trained Baba Jobe they can overnight become a paramilitary wing with a different agenda. The Libyan secret service, the Lanyia Shawriyaa, has recruited and funded rebel movements which have later overthrown their governments. A case in point is Charles Taylor in Liberia. The frequent visits to Syrte by some of the movement's cadres should be a warning signal. They obviously are just not drinking 'attaya'. I don't want to speculate that some have of them have visited the training camps in Sebha and Misurata.

Disgruntled Politicians

This group can comprise former PPP politicians, angry that the party is over, angry that 'little boys' made them run for their lives and recite verses of the Holy Quran in the middle of the night. OJ symbolizes their possible resurgence and, I believe, more would show up when Mr. Jammeh goes into hibernation. This class can also comprise any present-day politicians, who are mad that the APRC government does not even listen to them. There could be an ensuing mayhem in which some are defending the corrupt government that fills their pockets, some are trying to get back to the revelry that they once enjoyed, and a few are trying to stop everybody else.

The Gambia National Army (GNA)

Since it took over power on 22nd July, 1994, the GNA has in actual fact never been kept out of the show. "Once a soldier, always a soldier," their coup leader said. The 11/11/94 massacre of officers Faal, Barrow, Saye, Kebbeh and many others, the death-in-detention of Sadibou Hydara, the murder of Koro Ceesay, the incarceration of "wild boy" Sana Sabally, the April Massacre are all tied to the GNA. Let's not also forget the recent cold-blooded killings of Manneh and Dumbuya. For the last two years the GNA has been undergoing a lot of changes. High ranking officers have been arbitrarily fired, some are complaining of a deep tribalism with the Army's ranks, and a couple of officers are watching, watching very closely. They're looking for the opportune moment to get things back in order. It is said that President Jammeh is so paranoid that he does not want to live at the official state house in Banjul, he has no organized travel plans, and he does not trust Gambian bodyguards.

My opinion therefore is that President Jammeh's long leave of absence may be a serious and foolish action with dangerous consequences.

If he is going on mental leave, as some have inferred, please let him not be taken to Campama. He might get a stick and start chasing school children in the area.  I suggest that he be taken to Buiba.  There, he'll be made to work in the rice fields, whipped, and occasionally get a slap from a passenger on his way to Basse.

Hamadi.