FEBRUARY 2000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- African BUSINESS SENEGAL SPOTLIGHT Senegal elections: Opposition take up battle stations Senegal goes to the polls later this month (February) to elect the next President. The incumbent, Abdou Diouf who has been in power for 19 years will stand for his last term but the opposition has been gathering strength to deny him victory this time around. Gerry O'Kane delves into the intricacies of Senegalese politics. It could prove to be a taxing few weeks for President Abdou Diouf as the country moves closer to the 27 February presidential elections. Senegal's Diouf faces a tricky contest against some stiff political opposition. His party is already on the back foot as allegations of vote rigging plans began emerging barely as the last firework came to earth after the Millennium celebrations ended. But there are indications that it is a campaign he has long been planning. The allegations of rigging are all the more damaging as he is standing against his veteran rival, Abdoulaye Wade, who returned from a year abroad in October. It was a warm and triumphant welcome for the opposition leader, as tens of thousands of people turned out to greet him. That sort of popularity makes many independent observers believe that Diouf will find it tough to win in a clean election. Of course what makes the situation even more volatile has been the recent overthrow of Henri Konan Bedie in Cote d'Ivoire. Bedie was on the verge of an election when coup leader Brigadier General Robert Guei's move left him without any domestic allies. While coups may have a common air about them in Africa, it will not have passed Diouf's notice that Senegal and Cote d'Ivoire have both been considered francophone Africa's most stable countries; both have faced growing unrest among the military and both have heard growing demands for change. Diouf was well-alerted to the discontent in June last year when a general strike paralysed Senegal. The country's airport, hospitals and schools were closed in the first such action in seven years after a breakdown in negotiations over pay and welfare. In mid-December at his Socialist Party's (PS) conference and in the presence of 2,500 delegates, he was selected as presidential candidate. It is the last time he can stand for office but he is already into his 19th year of rule and as a result the mood for change has become stronger. One newspaper warned, "the real danger for Abdou Diouf is the rub-off effect of being in power for too long ... This proclivity to hold on to power often leads to manipulations which harbour risks for the democratic process." At Diouf's selection, the party's first secretary, Ousmane Tanor Dieng, emphasised that the party's goal was to ensure a transparent and democratic first round of the presidential election. It was then that Diouf shocked observers with pledges of 'Sopi' (change). This is a somewhat surprising statement for a man who has been in power so long. So Abdou Diouf has to contend with concerns that he is not damaging the concept of the nation's democracy and he must be seen as an advocate for change, even among a strong coterie within his own party. Fortunately he may be aided, if only in perception, by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) countries advancing towards an economic union last month. Ironically it is not only within the PS that there will be change. In late February, the 73-year old Abdoulaye Wade will end his leadership of the Democratic party. He has held the position undisputed since 1974 but the fight for his successor will be on, whether Wade becomes national President or not. And the same goes for Diouf. This is his last Presidential election and he is soon to surrender leadership of the PS, although it is predicted that the party's first secretary, Ousmane Tanor, will succeed. This uncertainty within the PS was made worse by the dismissal from the party of the former foreign minister, Moustapha Niasse in June. Niasse said he has resigned. He was highly critical of party members and the way the country was being run and accused some of his former colleagues of corruption. Within a month Niasse applied for permission to register a new political party and now Diouf faces Niasse and his Alliance for Progressive Forces in the Presidential elections. Niasse himself is regarded as one of the most popular and richest politicians in the country and has already received words of support from several influential Islamic leaders. The issue of vote rigging will not go away, even after the elections are over and done. In April last year, the main opposition in Senegal - the Democratic Party - boycotted parliament in support of its demands for stronger measures to prevent fraud in the Presidential elections. In his inimicable style, Wade called for safe-guards and demanded that experts from France and the United States help draw up a reliable register of voters. The demands were ignored. Even before the new year dawned, many independent newspapers expressed concern over the issue of voter confidence in the honesty of the elections. They hinted that in spite of President Diouf's promises of free and fair elections, people were cynical and voter turn-out would be low. On New Year's day, the government's national news agency told the country that 2,619,808 voters had been registered (excluding those overseas) and had already began collecting registration cards. The agency dismissed a vague rumour that the cards were not standard. Within days the issue had become a national crisis. The opposition parties claimed that there were two types of voter cards; one that conforms to correct standards and printed in Senegal and the other, which is fake, and printed in Israel. They formed the Front for Fair and Transparent Elections. Eventually the government admitted that there were indeed registration cards from abroad. It said they had been ordered by Interior Minister, General Lamine Cisse because there had been intentions to cheat - but by the opposition parties rather than by the government. The chairman of the socialist party, Abdourahim Agne went so far as to say that the only reason one of the opposition party leaders was complaining was because he was the former Interior Minister and fancied the job back. Ironically, however, the recent war of words about vote rigging also reflect a problem the opposition face in beating Diouf. Some 17 opposition parties have united to complain about the election irregularity - their number splits votes against the ruling party. The high profile (if dubious quality) of opposition presidential candidates now also splits the votes. Apart from Wade and Niasse, there is the leader of the Union for Democratic Renewal (URD), Djibo K‰. Both K‰ (whose party is only slightly over a year old) and Niasse are highly popular because the man in the street see them as having courage, the courage to drop years of links with the SP and go out on their own. They have wasted no time in appealing to the youth vote, a sector of the population that has suffered most from the country's economic problems. Long-term members of opposition parties such as Idrissa Seck, Wade's number two, Amath Dansokho of the Independence and Work Party (PIT) and Iba Der Thiam of the Convention of Democrats and Patriots, among others, hope to gain Wade's mantle when he steps down. They are vehemently opposed to either K‰ or Niasse trying to gain influence in the opposition camp. For many traditional opposition players these two are old pillars of the regime and only moved to opposition when they were forced from the centre of power from the PS. It was these concerns which brought together six of these most powerful opposition parties to form an electoral alliance called the Alternative Coalition 2000 in support of Wade. The coalition expressly excluded any role for these two maverick politicians. So apart from the number of candidates splitting the opposition vote, is there much else Diouf can do to get re-elected? A closer look at his political manoeuvring over the past year reveals method in what was considered madness in playing with the social political agenda. Observers point out that it can hardly be a coincidence that in late December a cease-fire was announced between the government and the Movement of the Democratic Forces of Casamance rebels. Naturally this pleased an increasingly dissolute army who had been dealing with the problem. The armed rebels have been fighting for the independence of Senegal's southern Casamance region and they signed the cease-fire agreement in Banjul, Gambia, after two days of negotiations. The two parties also agreed to meet once a month for six months in Banjul (starting again at the end of January) in a bid to solve issues on which they differ. According to the Gambian negotiators, the meetings will also enable them to examine the means needed to implement the permanent monitoring of the cessation of hostilities in Casamance. Senegalese authorities announced they had not agreed to secession by the southern region but did say they planned to review the movement's demands to be transformed into a political party, the release of its fighters and the lifting of all constraints on the free movement of people and goods in Casamance. And by the second week of January, Diouf had already announced the release of political prisoners. The deals should not come as a surprise. In May 1999, the government announced a big aid programme for the Casamance, where the 18-year old rebellion was originally sparked by underdevelopment. The Prime Minister, Mamadou Lamine Loum said the money would go towards job creation, rebuilding the infrastructure and landmine clearance. At the time the plan was greeted positively but with some surprise. For any leader the economy remains the greatest problem the nation faces. There is little doubt that Diouf hopes that with the economic union under the auspices of UEMOA, some of Cote d'Ivoire's economic prowess will rub off on Senegal, although considering that country has frozen debt repayments it may be an optimistic view. In the meantime February and March look set to see some down and dirty politicking. 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