On Wed, 20 Sep 2000, Andy wrote:

> In order to make an accurate calculation of the probability of a self
> replicating system emerging from the primal soup, it is nessesary to have a
> complete knowledge of physics, to know all of the boundary conditions existing
> at the time, and to have access to immense computing resources. As none of these
> things were available at the time, and still aren't, their conclusion must be
> viewed with great caution.

Indeed.  Nobody would deny that.  Still, it is perfectly
reasonable to say that *given what we know now*, the spontaneous
emergence of self-replicating systems from prebiotic soup in the
probable windows of time available is vanishingly small.  I think
it's understood by everyone that such claims are tentative, like
all theoretical pronouncements, especially concerning remote and
unobservable events.

> Fractal geometry tells us that immensely complex
> systems can be built from very simple rules, and that very small changes in the
> initial conditions can have profound effects.

Sure, and if you or anyone else has a theory of how fractal
geometry can get self-replicating proto-cells out of a random
soup of amino acids and nucleic acids, then that would count
against the Intelligent Design theory.  The mere conjecture,
however, than someday someone might develop such a theory
doesn't.

Todd Moody
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