In a message dated 10/11/00 4:02:13 PM, Todd Moody
<[log in to unmask]
writes:

<<  . . . It is a fact that a number of epidemiological
studies have found a strong correlation between red meat
consumption and colorectal cancer.  At least one study has failed
to find such a correlation, however.  Even Bruce Ames, the
scientist that Ray likes to cite when he is casting aspersions
against peanuts and the like, takes this very seriously, as does
Walter Willett, one of the best-known epidemiologists in the
world.  Still, while I don't take quite as dim a view of
epidemiological conclusions as Ken Stuart does, I do agree that
they are far from giving us the whole story.

Obviously, if meat consumption is itself correlated with some
other factor, then that factor too will be correlated with
colorectal cancer, and the task is to figure out whether it is
the meat or that other factor that is causing the colorectal
cancer (if either is).  Epidemiologists know this and try to
control for it, by multivariate analysis.  But they can only
control so many variables.  We don't know if it's the meat
itself, the cooking of it, or something else -- or whether the
whole thing is a statistical illusion. . .  >>

I think it would be important to know what population these studies
were done
on, and most importantly, what other variables were present. For
example,
some studies have indicated that populations eating a low carbohydrate
diet
have much lower cancer rates. What if the poplulations in these
studies
consuming all that meat were also polishing off large amounts of soda,
ice
cream, chips, etc. along with their meat? The SAD comes to mind here.
The
longest lived population in the world (ie, the greatest number of per
capita
centenarians) are the Okinawans, who eat fewer calories but a
substantially
higher fat level than their mainland Japanese kin. Although I do not
know how
much red meat they eat, a higher fat level would indicate to me that
they are
eating a good amount. The key is caloric restriction, which so far is
the
only known way of extending maximum lifespan. I do not know what their
rate
of colon cancer is, but it seems to me that caloric restriction,
scientifically proven to extend lifespan, would be the salient
consideration.

Maddy Mason
Hudson Valley, NY