(This is my first post- hi everyone)

I don't think anyone on a paleo diet needs to worry about this study,
as it breaks a golden rule of statistics (correlation does not imply
causation) and a golden rule of science (only change one thing at a
time in a study).

You might have people eating a 80% carb, 15% fat, 5% protein diet (say
group A), and people eating a 50% carb, 40% fat, 10% protein diet (say
group B). You would expect group B to be fatter, which fits with what
the study says about high carbs and high protein.  Now imagine that
group A has all its carbs as starch, while group B has half its carbs
as starch, half sugar.  Now, the claim that a high complex carbohydrate
diet is associated with low weight is true.  Taking up the point Paul
Sands made, now imagine that group A are "sensible eaters" but who eat
a lot of wholemeal bread sandwiches and consume (say) 2000Cal daily,
but group B are junk food eaters who love hamburgers (less complex
carbs, more fat) and eat 3000Cal daily.  Now the claims are losing all
meaning.

And finally... the reason why this doesn't affect the paleo diet: most
of the people on low-carb diets are on the Atkins diet and are doing it
to lose weight, so _by definition_ you find more fat people than thin
people on low carb diets.  This is what is meant by "correlation does
not imply causation"- low carbs did not cause them to be fat, high
carbs and/or high fat did.  The Atkins diet is often treated as a
license to eat fat, and an unrestricted calorie Atkins diet can be
disastrous for your waistline.  Not to mention that a lot of people
cheat but would still count as "low carb dieters".  A number of people
eating like this would further tip the scales in favour of "low carb is
good".  Which all boils down to the fact that if you want to correlate
dietary carb content to weight, you must keep all other things equal.
And it still doesn't prove anything.

It's just statistics for politicians: give me the numbers and tell me
what you want me to prove.

Ashley Moran

And while I've been typing this (I got a bit carried away when I
realised how bad the article is- I hope you didn't all nod off) I see
Kent Multer has added a few good points I missed.

On Apr 14, 2004, at 5:22 am, Elizabeth Miller wrote:

> Anybody know anything more about this study. In my gut I just don't
> believe it. It flies in the face of too many other studies! And I can
> verify that a high carb, low protein diet diet sure didn't lead to
> anything like thin for me -- I was a fat making machine on that diet!
>
> Liz
>
> Thinnest People Eat a Lot of This Food
>
> A four-nation study of more than 4,000 men and women ages 40 to 59 has
> produced a stunning conclusion in our Atkins diet-fueled society: The
> thinnest people on Earth eat the most carbohydrates. Even more
> alarming,
> the people who eat the most protein are actually the heaviest.
>
> "Without exception, a high-complex-carbohydrate, high-vegetable-protein
> diet is associated with low body mass," study leader Linda Van Horn of
> Northwestern University said in a news conference reported by Reuters.
> "High-protein diets were associated with higher body weight."
>
> Before you reach for the nearest doughnut, realize that the carbs that
> do a body good aren't from french fries and white bread that contain
> lots of sugar. They are complex carbohydrates such as whole grains,
> fruits, and vegetables.
>
> In the Northwestern study, more than 4,000 people from the United
> States, Great Britain, Japan, and China wrote in a food diary
> everything
> they had eaten during two 24-hour periods. "Lo and behold, what we did
> find is that without exception, a high complex-carbohydrate,
> high-fiber,
> high vegetable-protein diet was associated with low body mass index Van
> Horn explained. A low body mass index or BMI is a standard measure of
> healthy weight.
>
> But also notable is this finding: The more animal protein that was
> consumed, the higher the person's weight. And the greater risk to his
> or
> her health. "I think any diet that recommends increasing the amount of
> saturated fat poses a risk," said Randal J. Thomas of the Mayo Clinic.
> "There may be good things about the diet...but any diet that recommends
> increases in saturated fat could be increasing the risk in the
> population."
>
> http://channels.netscape.com/ns/homerealestate/package.jsp?name=fte/
> thinnestpeople/thinnestpeople&floc=HR-1_T
>