SOME ASPECTS OF THE SENEGALESE ECONOMY AND WADE’S VICTORY

While the political analysts and commentators are gearing up for the final
vote tally to dispense their prognosis, those of us who are less endowed
with the ability to assess, gauge and predict human behaviour and what
drives people to vote differently under different circumstances (as
evidenced by the preliminary voting patterns in rounds 1 and 2), would
prefer to look at what is currently on the ground; and measurable to some
extent.

It is evident during the campaign that the youth played a central role in
the elections. Apart from the increase in their numbers, through the
extension of the voting franchise to 18-year olds, they are among the most
disadvantaged. They also have a lot more at stake.

In 1999,a census was conducted which revealed that 64 percent of those
covered have been seeking employment for at least two years without
success.  Over 56 percent of job seekers in Senegal are between the ages of
15 and 35 years. Within this group of young people, 52 percent are
illiterate.

Between 1989 and 1996, the minimum guaranteed hourly wage increased from
CFA 201($1.50) to CFA 209 ($1.60). The minimum hourly wage has not changed
since then which means that the cumulative real reduction of 360 percent in
the purchasing power of the hourly worker in Senegal.  Consumer prices
increased by 55 percent in only three years – 1994 –1996.

In 1991- 92, the proportion of the Senegalese population considered poor
was 33.4 percent  (44 percent rural and 16.4 urban). Over half (54 percent)
of the population live on less than $1 a day. Indications are that the
poverty threshold in Senegal has increased further in recent years. Six of
the ten regions i.e. Ziguinchor, Tambacounda, Kaolack, Louga, Falick and
Kolda registered higher poverty rates than the national average. Dakar
(Cape Verde) and St Louis faired better in the poverty league table because
of the disproportionate number of government “functionnaires” living in
these regions and the huge salary gap between them and the wage earner (not
to mention the urban poor and unemployed) thus positively influencing the
average income levels in these two regions.

These figures alone are adequate indication that the economy played an
important role in the outcome of the elections. How important a role
remains to be seen. We will have to rely on the political analysts,
election experts, media specialists and other experts to further appreciate
the Senegalese experience that will be a subject of intense study and
debate for years to come.

Sidi Sanneh

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