Pa Modou,
Thanks for taking a shot
----Original Message Follows----
From: Jungle Sunrise <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: First observation of the 2003 budget speech.
Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2002 12:06:38 -0500
Folks,
From the 2003 budget speech, we are told:
“44.
The poor crop performance is estimated to result in a drop of 6.8% in total
agricultural output, with groundnut production falling by about 12%
compared to the figure of last year. Despite the steep fall in crop
production, expected to decline by 10.7%, the other sub-sectors of
agriculture once again recorded increases.
57.
For 2002, imports are provisionally valued at around D2, 947.6 million,
whilst exports stand at about D 417.5million. The trade balance deficit is
D2.5 billion. For 2001 the corresponding trade balance deficit was D2.0
billion. Total imports CIF for the current fiscal year is estimated at D2.9
billion compared to D2.1 billion in 2001 and D2.4 billion for 2000 fiscal
year. This is an increase of D840.7million or 39 percent over the year
2001. These statistics reflects (the increase in the volume of imports and
appreciation of international currencies against the Dalasi.
58.
Total exports are provisionally valued at D417.5million, with groundnut and
groundnut products accounting for 70.1 percent of the total exports. Fish
and fish preparations exports increased by about 7.6 percent whilst exports
of fruits and vegetables remained at the same level as that of last year.
United Kingdom, Germany, Brazil. France, China, United States, Cote
d'lvoire, Senegal and India are our main trading partners. It should be
noted that the total re-export trade amount is captured within total
imports.
120.
Cereal production increased from 175,000 metric tons in 2000/2001 to
187,000 metric tons in 2001/2002, an increase of 6.9%. Early millet
production of 89,000 metric tons represents 52% of the overall cereal
production. However, the production of rice (the main staple food of the
country) declined from 34,000 metric tons in 2000/2001 to 19,000 metric
tons in 2001/2002, a decline of about 44%. This is due to reductions in
both upland and swamp rice production.”
Folks,
The above, from the 2003 budget, makes very sorry reading. Not only are we
expecting a drop in production of our main cash crop, groundnuts, of about
12% compared to last year, we also importing far more than we are
exporting. It also seems that rice imports constitute only a measely 5 or
so percents. I would have thought that considering our dependence on rice
and the very small percentage of imports it constitutes, ways and means can
be found to make it more affordable. Yes, it would be good to produce our
own rice rather importing it, but the fact is that the bulk of our imports
is definitely from rice or cereals. The SOS and his team need to do a
thorough analysis and give us a break down of what the remaining 95% of our
imports are. A break down of this 95% of imports may show how taxation,
incentives and sensitization of our populace may influence a change of
attitude and re-prioritise our imports. The huge gap between what we import
and what we export is obviously untenable and we must look into ways and
means of drastically reducing this imbalance.
Another area of concern is the fact that, not only is groundnut production,
which accounts for about 70% of our total exports, down compared to last
year, the quality of the crop is also seems to be down significantly.
A cousin of mine from Bansang told me a few days back that farmers are
reluctant to take their groundnuts to the “Seccos” because of the poor
weight of this year’s crops. He told me that instead of selling at
the “Seccos”, were the price paid depends on the weight of the crop rather
than its volume, they are selling to some “Bana Banas” who are buying based
on volume. There are others too, who are reluctant to take their produce to
the “Seccos” for fear of a repeat of the credit buying of the past years.
If these become the trend, then we are in for even harder times.
On a different note, I am a bit puzzled by an article from The Gambia
Daily. From the Monday, 16th December edition of The Gambia Daily, the CRD
Divisional Agricultural Co-coordinator is reported as telling a Gambia
Daily reporter that the Kuntaur rice fields have “yielded a bumper rice
harvest”. According to the paper, rice yields from these rice farms have
increased from 2,000 tonnes per hectare to 5,000 tonnes per hectare in
these 58 Hectare fields. Multiplying 58 by 5,000 gives 290,000 tonnes of
rice. Even if the DAC or reporter got it wrong ten-fold, the expected yield
is still more than the 19,000 tonnes reported by the SOS for Finance in his
budget speech.
Could those in the know please confirm whether such yields per hectare
usual and whether the Kuntaur rice fields can be as much as 58 hectares?
Have a good day, Gassa.
--
There is a time in the life of every problem when it is big enough to see,
yet small enough to solve (Mike Leavitt)
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