by Isabelle Ligner
ABIDJAN, Jan 17 (AFP) - Recent political upheavals in Ivory Coast have
exposed significant weaknesses in the economy of the world's leading cocoa
producer, once hailed as the economic miracle of west Africa.
President Laurent Gbagbo summed up the situation following the latest
upheaval -- an abortive coup on January 7-8: "It's not good for investors,
it's not good for investments in the country."
The attackers, he added, wanted to "frighten off economic players."
But for most international economists, institutions and traders, the
feet
of the ancient elephant of west Africa have long been shown to be fragile.
"The Ivory Coast miracle is over," said a director of an import-export
company, "then it became a mirage and now it is a nightmare."
A military coup in December 1999, the first in Ivory Coast's history,
had
badly dented donor goodwill and foreign investment, he said.
Since the coup, he added, his business had dropped off 50 percent.
This month's attempt at overthrowing the government -- by armed
attackers
President Laurent Gbagbo has hinted were supporters of opposition leader
Alassane Ouattara -- represented the final twist of the knife, the director
said.
An Abidjan port official said that "due to the political troubles", 30
percent of merchandise was being diverted to Ghana and Togo.
For small traders, "life is difficult," said a Malian merchant in
Abidjan's
Plateau sector, the city's commercial centre.
"There are many idle days," the trader said. "The merchandise doesn't
arrive. We have to increase the price but the people don't have the money."
According to economist Francis Akindes, "the living conditions of the
people are deteriorating rapidly" due to unemployment and "the saturation
of
the informal sector."
Economists had been hoping a promised return to democracy through the
staging of presidential elections in October and a parliamentary poll in
December would restore confidence in the country.
But both the presidential and legislative polls were mired in violence,
sparked by electoral officials claiming Ouattara is not Ivorian and
therefore
ineligible to scontest the polls, have so far left at least 200 people dead.
Meanwhile, the government's coffers have been bled dry.
"The government has no economic plan," said a despairing international
economist.
Ivory Coast's spiralling debt and political instability, he added, "is
chronically discouraging all investment. The flight of capital is
increasing
significantly."
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank suspended aid to the
nation in December 1998, accusing the former regime of Henri Konan Bedie of
bad governance.
The European Union followed suit after a scandal involving 27.5 millions
euros in which several ministers were implicated.
Ivory Coast's debt, meanwhile, soared during the military rule from
December 1998 until October 2000, forcing the country to suspend its debt
repayments.
The new government of Gbagbo was not able to halt the crisis and debt
continued to spiral, reaching 1,000 billion CFA francs (1.5 billion euros)
at
the end of November.
The situation has been aggravated by a 40 percent plunge in the
international price of cocoa and coffee, leading economists to predict
negative growth for the fiscal year 2000.
Analyst Adama Kone noted that the country was being classified "a risk"
by
investors. Even traditional trading partner France, the former colonial
power,
is beginning to baulk.
"If France doesn't want to help us, we will have to search elsewhere for
support," Gbagbo said in December.
il/bp/nb
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