Jobe, I forgive you for your gullibility in regurgitating these IMF and
World Bank figures and thinking that all is good because the Washington
Economists say so. If you were here last year you would have seen what me
and Hamjatta had to say about these figures and how to analyze them. If you
understood how this data is collected and also understand the time frame
within which IMF officials work when they visit Gambia to work on these
figures, you will know how meaningless these figures are to the poor farmer
in Kiang or the taxi driver in Serrekunda.

IMF and World Bank accept any garbage they are fed by the Central Bank and
the Ministry of Finance, respectively. Most of these Washington officials
care less about how our economies are performing. All they care about is the
size of their debt portfolios and whether they can travel to these so-called
Third World countries and live in fancy hotels. For the consumption of my
dear Dr. Jones, I am saying most, not all IMF and World Bank economists.

To illustrate to you how unreliable this data is and how ignorant IMF
officials are of what goes on in Gambia, let me point out to you some
callous and blatant lies Gambian officials told to the IMF last year. Did
you know that part of the government's explanation for our poor economic
performance was attributed to the Massacre of April 10 and 11, 2000? The
APRC Government indicated that a lot of money was spent renovating Gamtel
installations that were damaged by the 'rioting' students. This expenditure
made a dent into our economy. What the report to the IMF failed to mention
was that Yaya and his entourage made a bigger dent  in our economy during
their trip to Cuba while our children were being slaughtered by his security
forces. What the report failed to mention was that Yaya and his cohorts make
a bigger dent in our economy when they steal money from government coffers
in order to send their wives and children to vacation in the U.S. I can go
on and on about what the figures the IMF work from do not contain. What I
sought to portray here is that, IMF will swallow any garbage from these
people without probing deeply into issues.

Jobe, unlike you, I know how the game is played. I know where these figures
come from. As I keep saying, my war is with Yaya. I do not seek to destroy
innocent civil servants that do not work actively to propagate Yaya. I will
let them continue to enjoy their cozy jobs and per diems. It is Yaya and
people like you that actively support child murderers that I am after. At
this stage, I will just ask you to do further probing about the source of
these figures and analyze matters vis-a-vis the plight of ordinary Gambians
(our farmers).

Moving on to the sectors you want to discuss today, I noticed that you have
shifted from your earlier posture of trying to make the Jawara record an
issue. That is an improvement. I realized you did not have much to credit
the AFPRC/APRC with in our Financial sector. The figures you gave us about
deposit levels are irrelevant to the AFPRC/APRC record. Your analysis
spanned from 1985-1995. If anything, I am almost positive that domestic
savings declined in the aftermath of the coup when people were not sure
where the country was going. I might be wrong though because around this
time, AFPRC thugs were running around town with dollars they looted from the
Gambian people. Sana Sabally paid a D16,000 loan for his dad less than a
month after stealing power. So it is conceivable that savings continue to go
up in 1995. But this was mainly stolen money. The real money that was saved
during the Jawara era and the money that made up the bulk of the figure you
cited, came mainly from aid agencies (like USAID) that were operating in the
country. Ask your sources at Standard Bank. Some of the domestic savings
also came from parastatals like Gamtel, Social Security and Ports. These
legitimate savings went down and not up during Yaya's watch. Those are the
figures we are interested in. Don't ride on PPP's record.

When you said that there never existed any commercial courts or arbitration
office, I can only conclude that you are either engaged in semantics or you
are exhibiting a deep ignorance of what you are talking about. What do you
understand a commercial court or an arbitration office to mean? A building
called a commercial court or an arbitration office? Do you know that even in
the U.S. most arbitration proceedings are conducted at the offices of
private lawyers. There are certain entities like the World Bank's ICSID and
the American Arbitrators' Association that have offices that they rent out
to private litigants that want to use the rules of these arbitration bodies
to govern the resolution of a dispute. There is no such thing as an
arbitration office per se. You can conduct an arbitration anywhere the
arbitrators and the litigants want. Most of the commercial disputes that
arise in Gambia are governed by arbitration rules of bodies that are outside
Gambia. The arbitrators of those bodies also live outside Gambia. Almost
invariably, the parties to these disputes even if they are Gambian would
have chosen a forum other than Gambia to arbitrate their dispute. Take the
government's case against Alimenta. ICSID rules were used to settle that
dispute. The arbitrators were not Gambian. One of the parties was not
Gambian. How would an 'arbitration office' in Gambia feature in this
equation?

'Commercial Courts' are also courts that hear commercial disputes. You see
how ignorant your statement is? Gambian courts hear commercial disputes
everyday. We do not need a special court house with the sign 'commercial
court' written at the door. I hope that is not what you meant. If you mean
that we need judges specialized in just adjudicating commercial disputes,
that is perhaps understandable. Then again, the commercial docket in The
Gambia is not that big to warrant specialist judges. We have innocent
Gambians languishing in jail because the criminal courts are backlogged.
They cannot hear all the criminal case. Before you have a judge specializing
in just one area of the law while our ordinary citizens languish in jail
without trial, why can't you advocate for general practitioner judges that
will ensure that we apply the maxim 'innocent until proven guilty' and not
condemn our citizens in jail before they are tried and convicted? You see,
the problem we have back home is that the inmates are running the asylum.
People like you want to be authorities on issues you do not understand and
grasp well.

As far as the increased number of commercial banks are concerned, I would
only point out to you that the banks you mentioned did not first come to
Gambia after 1994. Some of these banks were in the works long before 1994.
The Islamic Bank did not just appear in the scene in 1994/95. Ask your
sources of information to tell you about the application process of these
banks. Their commission have very little to do with Yaya and his cohorts.

What can I say about the re-export trade and tourism? No amount of spin can
cover the obvious. Why did you not discuss why the British had that travel
advisory? It was because a bunch of bandits hijacked our country. You
seriously believe people will buy this garbage about the 'foot and mouth'
disease? When did that happen? It is the lawlessness in the country and
silly tax  and tariff regime that killed the tourist industry and the
re-export trade. Mental midgets like Yankuba Touray cannot do a thing about
that. They can jail 'bumsters' all they want, but that will not wipe out the
lawlessness in the country.

Finally, I will just point out that because Yaya stole money from the people
and bought a Mercedes SUV and drives it in Kanilai, does not mean that
people in Kanilai are not poor. Because Famara Jatta cooks up bogus trips to
go abroad and earn per diem and drive a government owned vehicle to so to
grocery stores, does not mean that Gambians are not poor. You might set your
eyes to these token and silly 'luxuries', but we are more concerned by the
fact that there are people in Kiang that do not see a single 50 dalasi note
in two months.
KB



>From: Kebba Jobe <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: Why I can support the APRC government despite...Pt3.
>Date: Thu, 26 Apr 2001 16:05:26 -0000
>
>Part3.
>
>d) FINANCE
>
>More often than not, financial institutions and regulations play a vital
>role when it comes to investing in any country. This in turn determines the
>level of confidence that investors have and the risks associated with such
>investments. It can also be argued that this has a direct bearing on the
>performance of the economy. By end of 1995 there were 4 commercial banks
>and
>6 insurance commercial banks and a handful of foreign exchange bureaus.
>Total bank deposits grew from D140.7 million in June 1985 to D624.2 million
>in June 1995, with a steep increase in the savings component. Percentage
>growth in real GDP averaged 3.3 % during the period 1983 to 1993. There
>never existed any commercial courts or any arbitration office. This, the
>government has announced, would be put into place this year.
>
>Presently there are 7 commercial banks and 7 insurance companies. All of
>these are present in sere Kunda, most are in Bakau and a number of them in
>the provinces. All the banks are computerized and in the case of the
>Standard Chartered, they introduced ATMs in the country for the first time
>last year. Real GDP also grew at an average of 5.33 % during the period
>1994
>to 1999.
>
>The re-export trade made significant improvements over the years
>contributing 24% to GDP at its peak in 1985/86 before the collapse of the
>Senegambia confederation in 1992. Shortly after, its contribution to real
>GDP growth plummeted to almost to zero. This however improved steadily to
>14.3 % in 1994/95. This collapse can be attributed mainly to the geography
>of the country, being surrounded on all three sides by the Republic of
>Senegal. Senegal has in the past tightened border controls to the extent of
>nearly killing our re-export trade that, invariably needed to transit
>through its territory.
>
>Over the years both the former PPP regime and AFPRC/APRC tried to overcome
>this problem mainly by appeasement. However the APRC government realizing
>that this is not a long term solution to the problem, embarked on projects
>to expand cargo-handling facilities of both the air and seaports. Maersk
>Gambia limited recently started a twice monthly Less than Container Load
>(LCL) Service to Both Freetown and Monrovia. All indications from the GPA
>are that this is becoming very popular with our Merchants. May be our “Sink
>At Port” dream of the PPP, may after all, become a reality.
>
>e) TOURISM
>
>Over the years, this sector made the most significant growth in terms of
>contributing to real GDP. It is however one of the most sensitive to global
>or local changes. The recent Foot and mouth outbreak in UK and the infamous
>1994 UK travel advice are 2 cases in point. In the case of the UK travel
>advise of 1994, Gambia’s economy received a shock that it had never before
>experienced. Within a matter of days, our entire tourism industry
>collapsed,
>making 10,000s of people dependent on it income less. It took concerted
>effort on the part of both stakeholders and government to recover from that
>shock. The industry recovered very quickly (within 3 years) only to be
>jolted again by the pullout/buyout of FTI (the biggest tour operator of
>recent past) this year. You will recall that their pullout was attributed
>to
>government’s decision to ban the “all exclusive package” within established
>hotels due to public outcry over its effect on local businesses. Even
>though
>I don’t have any statistics on this sector at the moment, I will endeavor
>to
>provide them as soon as available. I am however convinced that government’s
>efforts over years to diversify our tourism market and product, tackle the
>bumster menace, the new weekly direct flight to the US and the
>establishment
>of an autonomous tourism development agency, to provide for a one stop
>shop,
>will soon begin to pay off.
>
>e) LIGHT INDUSTRIES.
>
>This sector still continues to under-perform. The number of new players in
>this sector hasn’t grown significantly over the years. Notable new entries
>are perhaps the GTTI foundry and Gamjuice. There may be others that I may
>be
>unaware of. This sluggish can most definitely be attributed to the energy
>crisis we have. Let’s hope this will be resolved soon.
>
>PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY
>
>Annual % growth of GDP in recent past when compared to the rest of Africa
>has been very good considering our lack of resources. The following proves
>my point. For reference please refer to (www.worldbank.com or www.imf.org)
>
>% Annual growth of GDP.
>
>1995/96 – 5.3%, 96/97 – 0.8%, 1997 – 5.2 %, 1998 – 4.9 %, 1999 – 5.6 %
>
>Foreign reserves (Millions of SDRs).
>
>1995/96 – 70.1,  96/97 – 70.4,  1997 – 69.6, 1998 – 75.4,  1999 – 78.1
>
>Dalasi/SDR rate for the period.
>
>1995/96 – 14.3,  96/97 – 14.1,  1997 – 14.0, 1998 – 14.4,  1999 – 15.6
>
>Import cover (Months).
>
>1995/96 – 5.2,  96/97 – 5.5,  1997 – 5.6, 1998 – 5.1,  1999 – 5.7
>
>Groundnut production (in 1,000 metric tonnes).
>
>1995/96 – 75.2,  96/97 – 45.8,  1997 – 78.1, 1998 – 73.5,  1999 – 123.0
>
>
>Domestic Savings (Millions of SDR – exchange rate the same as above).
>
>1995/96 – 2.9,  96/97 – 6.0,  1997 – 7.1, 1998 – 7.5,  1999 – 8.9
>
>Gross Domestic Savings (Millions of SDR –  Exch. Rates same as above).
>
>1995/96 – 10.0,  96/97 – 12.6,  1997 – 13.5, 1998 – 14.5,  1999 – 14.4.
>
>Government Revenues (Millions of SDR –  Exch. Rates same as above).
>
>1995/96 – 17.7,  96/97 – 19.4,  1997 – 19.3, 1998 – 18.8,  1999 – 17.7.
>
>Gov. Outstanding debt (Millions of SDR –  Exch. Rates same as above).
>
>1995/96 – 111.1,  96/97 – 107.0,  1997 – 104.4, 1998 – 107.5,  1999 – 97.4.
>
>
>
>I would like to conclude the performance of The Gambian economy by quoting
>from the IMF country report 00/114 of 2000 that says, “The Gambia has made
>substantial progress in implementing economic reforms. During the past 3
>years, inflation remained low at about 2.0 percent, and the overall fiscal
>deficit (excluding grants) was reduced to 4¼ percent of GDP from 7.8
>percent
>in 1997. The Gambia has also made a strong effort in implementing
>structural
>reforms in recent years, including in the area of external trade
>liberalization”.
>
>In the light of these, The Gambia qualified for debt relief under the HIPC
>initiative from all of The Gambia's creditors worth nearly US$67 million in
>Net Present Value (NPV) terms, which is equivalent to 27 percent of total
>debt outstanding after the full use of traditional debt relief mechanisms.
>
>According to the IMF,
>“The enhanced HIPC Initiative will help The Gambia to advance its poverty
>reduction programs and stimulate economic growth. The debt reduction
>operation will translate into debt-service relief over time of US$91
>million. Debt service will be reduced by about 43 percent over 2001-05 and
>25 percent over 2006-15. This will create room for additional public
>expenditures on poverty reduction. The Gambia's eligibility for debt relief
>under the enhanced HIPC Initiative is a recognition by the international
>community of the progress made in implementing economic reforms and
>achieving poverty reduction”.  IMF release No. 00/68 of 2000.
>If the above report on the economy is anything to go by, I cannot
>understand
>what people mean when they say the economy is in “shambles” or is being
>mismanaged. I wonder why the IMF/World bank would continue to pump money
>into the country to the tune of over $30.31 millions from 2000 to date if
>the economy was in shambles or is being grossly mismanaged. I wonder also
>whether the other donors are equally blind to see the mismanagement of the
>economy. Remember when the UDP was telling us that the government would not
>be able to pay salaries and that the shortage of basic goods and services
>was eminent?
>
>Anybody who wants to see how the economy is performing need only to look
>around to see how the construction industry is booming or the number of
>beautiful cars plying our roads daily or the number of supermarkets
>springing up everywhere. Gone are the days of the rickety taxis.
>
>I will go on to governance tomorrow and when I conclude hopefully the day
>after, I will try to answer all questions raised.
>
>Have a good day & bye 4Now, KB Jobe.
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
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