It is very strange that most folks see an opposition alliance only in terms
of UDP, PPP and NCP. The PDOIS and NRP does not seem to figure in the
equations that I have so far seen since the announcement of the MERGER of
the UDP and PPP. What most folks don't realise is that PDOIS has made
significant gains during the past two to three years. It seems to me that
only PDOIS is sincere in its utterances of wanting meaningful change. The
rest (NRP and NCP excluded for lack of evidence) are only united by their
wish to see the back of Yahya. This will however be possible only if the
APRC does something really stupid. From the way things are going however,
there is very little chance of that happening. The APRC's has a strong and
appealing record and their campaign is based on that record and not
personalities as seems to be the case withe so-called big opposition
parties. For anyone to ignore this, will be doing so at his/her own peril.
The debacle that is characteristic of the opposition now has been glaring
for sometime now and yet fanatics of the opposition don't want to admit. THE
FIRST REPUBLIC IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE SECOND!!!

Have a good day, Gassa.

>From: Yusupha C Jow <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: The NCP Needs To Be Reengaged
>Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 19:26:03 EDT
>
>I sincerely hope that there is time, though not much, for the NCP to
>reconsider her current position and perhaps allow for a renegotiation with
>the Alliance as it is currently composed.
>
>The Alliance, instead of drawing lines in the sand and sharpening their
>swords in preparation for a war of words with the NCP, should make an all
>out
>effort to re-invite S.M. Dibba and his party back to the negotiating table
>in
>the hopes of forging a compromise which would ensure the NCP's direct
>involvement in the Alliance.
>
>The same goes for the NCP. However, from the aforementioned press release,
>it
>appears the NCP is trying to avoid the kind of strife which will create
>more
>schisms between themselves and the Alliance.  This is a very encouraging
>development which should be used as a foundation for future negotiations
>towards a more widely encompassing Alliance.
>
>The NCP and the Alliance should both realize that this arrangement, as
>presently comprised, will simply not suffice when it comes to defeating the
>APRC soundly come October.  At first, I, like many, was of the opinion that
>the NCP's absence would not really hinder the Opposition's chances of
>winning
>in October.  But, the closer I peeked, the more it became evident that is
>not
>the case.
>
>Before the advent of the barbarians and butchers in power, the NCP was the
>main opposition party in The Gambia.  During the last general elections
>before the advent of the APRC, the NCP garnered about 36% of the total
>vote.
>Coincidentally, this is approximately the same percentage of votes which
>the
>UDP garnered during the last post-APRC general elections.
>
>Similarities aside, these statistics show that, before the advent of the
>APRC, the NCP was a force to be reckoned with in the Gambian political
>landscape, and this leads to the million dollar question: Where did all the
>NCP supporters go after Decree 89 was passed?
>
>Some of them joined the ranks of the APRC, while the majority of their
>supporters joined the then newly formed UDP party.  To buttress my point, I
>shall point to the fact that in both parliamentary and general elections
>held
>in formerly strong NCP strongholds, such as Bakau and Baddibou, the results
>still favored the Opposition in the UDP.
>
>Former PPP supporters, on the other hand, mostly joined the ranks of the
>APRC
>after Decree 89.  Save for a few constituencies, previous PPP strongholds,
>i.e., most of the country, have now become APRC controlled regions.  It is
>also to be assumed that some former PPP supporters did vote for the UDP,
>but
>those were probably few and far between, for, to their credit, the APRC did
>a
>good job of attracting supporters who were previously loyal to the former
>ruling party.
>
>The phenomenon which occurred after Decree 89 was the biggest realignment
>of
>political affiliations in post-independence Gambian history, and this was
>solely caused by advent of the APRC, which led to the infamous Decree.  So,
>we know that Yahya was the cause of this occurrence, but what about its
>implications as it relates to the events of August 13 ?
>
>Well, as I see it, another realignment of political affiliations is taking
>place as we speak and depending on the outcome of future Alliance
>negotiations, these changes in party affiliations shall continue to morph.
>
>As a result of the NCP''s current position of refusing to join the
>Alliance,
>the Opposition's core, formerly that of the NCP, will fragment because a
>considerable portion will repledge their alliances to the NCP and S.M.
>Dibba.
>  This said, it will be more difficult to ascertain the portion of UDP
>supporters that will be lost because of this shift of alliances.  But going
>by the strong support the NCP once enjoyed in previous presidential
>elections, that loss might be sizable enough to effectively scuttle the
>Alliance's hopes for a victory in October.  Possibly, the small portion of
>former NCP voters who cast their ballots for the APRC during the last
>election might similarly jump ship, but most likely this particular
>migration
>of supporters will only amount to a few percent of the APRC vote, hardly
>enough to make a sizable dent in their fortunes.
>
>The PPP, by virtue of their participation in the Alliance, will probably
>not
>be a direct cause for the polarization of UDP's supporter base.  Their
>reemergence in the political arena will mean some of its former supporters
>will shift their allegiances from the APRC to the Alliance.  But, again,
>getting a determination an approximate number is tough.  Regardless, at
>this
>rate, this shift will probably go towards offsetting the loss of voters
>created by the polarizing effect caused by the NCP's refusal to go with the
>Alliance.
>
>Please note that PDOIS and the GPP are conspicuously absent from my
>summation.  I must say that I greatly admire PDOIS whose strategies and
>principles, being the best ones out there, can surely move our country
>forward.  Nevertheless, there impact in terms of numbers is negligible when
>compared to, say, a PPP, NCP, or UDP.  The same applies to the GPP even
>though Hassan Musa Camara has been designated elder statesman of the
>Alliance.  This is not to say that PDOIS' or GPP's involvement in this
>Alliance is not welcome, a few percentage points might make all the
>difference this time around and thus they might make the difference, but in
>the grand scheme of things the NCP is currently the bigger fish to fry.
>
>So we have it folks: Nothing but a wider Alliance which includes the NCP
>will
>suffice.  This is not the time for divisive politics.  Personal egos,
>finger
>pointing and a war of words will only further turn off voters who might
>have
>otherwise voted for the Alliance, NCP or PDOIS.  Dibba needs to be
>reengaged
>and this way good will surely triumph over evil.
>
>-Jah Lives,
>Yus
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L
>Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html
>You may also send subscription requests to
>[log in to unmask]
>if you have problems accessing the web interface and remember to write your
>full name and e-mail address.
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------


_________________________________________________________________
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L
Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html
You may also send subscription requests to [log in to unmask]
if you have problems accessing the web interface and remember to write your full name and e-mail address.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------