In the spirit of instigating a discussion (hopefully cordial) in
anticipation of the upcoming elections, I have few questions I'd like to
"put out there".  I must apologise, I have not been keeping up with Gambia-L
posts, so if I am touching on anything that has already been discussed to
exhaustion, please let me know.

1)  How do the results of the recent by-elections play in the forecast of
the upcoming elections?  I believe the seats in question were previously
held by the UDP and were considered UDP strongholds.  One was lost to the
APRC and the other narrowly kept by the UDP.  Can or should these results be
considered the most recent or accurate indication of true voter sentiment in
The Gambia today?  If not, what are variables to discount them?

2) Could Jammeh's decision and timing to lift the ban on these veteran
politicians actually be attributed to a master stroke with the sole purpose
of disrupting or dividing a previously viable and dangerous challenge from
the opposition?  Or was it due to pressure for a greater democratic process?
Before the ban was lifted, how close were the main opposition parties to
forming an alliance to contest the elections?  I know all indications were
that PDOIS were not keen at all.  What about the UDP and the NRP?  Also,
from a general opposition standpoint, what was the gain in having the ban
lifted so close to the elections?  Did this offer an opportunity for
previously disenchanted people who would not have voted for any parties, to
now vote?  If so, for whom?  Are there former APRC supporters who are now
supporting the PPP, NCP, GPP, etc. and their new political partners?

I welcome your comments.

Latir Gheran

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