Buharry,
Lets hope that your dreams come through.But one must not mistake believing
that S.M.Dibba is not aware of his potentials on the ground,even though in
the open he never put up a resistance.He knows that on the ground he can
complicate the situation and thus an easy ride for the AFPRC.I will not be
surprise if Dibba insist in contesting the elections.To be on the safe
side,the "Alliance"should immediately engage Dibba in serious
dialogs,offering him even the possibility of choosing his ministerial post
during the transisation period and the role he could play,he is a potential
to take note of.
If you  observe the present political platform,you will find out that the
opposition is always marking it good in traditionally known opposition
arrears during the PPP /Ncp era.Whether this is the Badibus or the
Jaaras,this is partly due to the old NCP nostalgia.Serre Kunda West will be
an easy ride for the AFPRC and if the situation continues like this to the
parliamentary elections,we might come to see a minority representative from
the AFPRC in parliament,this can easily happen with the 3 seats of
Badibu.Alliance or no Alliance the struggle continues.God bless Gambia '''


For Freedom
Saiks


----- Original Message -----
From: Momodou Buharry Gassama <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2001 1:01 PM
Subject: Re: Breaking News:A Split In The Opposition?


Hi!
    While this walkout by S.M. Dibba might look disastrous on the surface, I
don't think we should panic. I believe that this is more of a tactical move
than a desire to split the opposition. Mr. Dibba knows by all indications
that his chances of winning the elections are rather slim. This is due to
numerous facts. Among them are:
1. He has been out of politics for numerous years.
2. He has kept absolutely quiet during the years he was banned whilst people
like O.J., Halifa Sallah, Ousainou Darboe, Hamat Bah etc. challenged Jammeh
on numerous occasions thus gaining them the image of being fighters for the
rights of Gambians. He will therefore have an uphill task of gaining the
trust of Gambians.
3.Time is not on his side. He does not have sufficient time to put in place
an effective machinery to enable him to outplay the APRC, UDP etc. I do not
know if he has the resources, but it will take a lot to create a campaign
machinery as effective as that of the APRC or UDP within such a short
period.
4. Ousainou Darboe's presence on the political scene for the past years and
his numerous battles against the government on human rights and other issues
have gained him a lot of support. A lot of this support comes from former
NCP supporters. Even though Dibba might be able to take some NCP supporters
from Darboe, it would be an illusion to expect to get back all NCP
supporters in light of the fact that he has been quiet and inactive for so
long. I believe that O.J. would have a better chance of being elected than
Dibba because he was widely known during the Jawara era. Add to this is the
fact that he was the most vocal and challenging of all of the Decree 89
politicians. The realities on the ground however made the PPP declare its
support for Darboe.

    The above and other factors make it an uphill task for Dibba to expect
to win the elections. While the NCP might have been the major opposition
party during the Jawara era, the UDP has taken its place during the Jammeh
era. Dibba therefore knows fairly well that Ousainou Darboe as a
presidential candidate has more chances of winning than he does. One has to
however use all the chips in one's block during negotiations. If Dibba had
accepted Darboe's nomination on the spot, a calculation may be that he might
not have been able to gain major concessions in a future government of
national unity for his party. By walking out and knowing that he might be
able to split the opposition vote, Dibba is hoisting himself in a position
from which he can negotiate more favourable conditions. Dibba knows that his
party is important in a coalition and that his walkout will not be the end
of attempts to get him to join a coalition. He is probably waiting with
conditions on a piece of paper for the delegation or phone call encouring
him to join. This is about politics, negotiation and the art of gaining
concessions. We should therefore not be surprised if we hear very soon that
Dibba has accepted Darboe's nomination. Have a good day.

Buharry.

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