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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 21:36:34 -0500
From: APIC <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Africa: Policy Outlook 2000

Africa: Policy Outlook 2000
Date distributed (ymd): 000118
APIC Document

+++++++++++++++++++++Document Profile+++++++++++++++++++++

Region: Continent-Wide
Issue Areas: +political/rights+ +economy/development+
+security/peace+ +US policy focus+
Summary Contents:
This posting contains a summary overview of expected Africa
policy issues for the year, with a focus on U.S. policy.  For
more information on the issues and countries mentioned please
visit the Africa Policy Web Site
(http://www.africapolicy.org).

+++++++++++++++++end profile++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

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Africa Policy Outlook 2000

In 1999, the range of conflicts extending diagonally across
Africa from Angola in the southwest to Ethiopia and Eritrea in
the northeast continued to generate new humanitarian disasters
and to pose formidable obstacles to hopes for continental
advance. National elections were held in South Africa, Nigeria
and thirteen other African countries, reinforcing democratic
practices in large areas of the continent despite serious
questions about the fairness of the proceedings in Nigeria and
several other countries. The region with the largest number of
elections considered generally free and fair was Southern
Africa, where Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique and Namibia as well
as South Africa all reelected incumbent governments. A
December coup in Cote d'Ivoire interrupted an electoral
campaign already set to exclude the opposition -- a
development which despite appearances might open up new
prospects for democratization.

Even in countries with competitive elections, however,
international observers as well as local democracy activists
increasingly stressed that real change depended on increasing
public participation and on access to resources that were not
forthcoming. Growth rates for 1999 were predicted to be 2.3
percent for Sub-Saharan Africa, only slightly more than in
1998 and not enough to prevent the second year in a row of
declining per capita income. Despite new pledges of debt
relief from creditor countries, the prospect at year's end was
for continued stagnation or decline in international public
investment (also known as "development assistance") and for
only modest increases in private direct investment.

While HIV/AIDS was the most visible and widely publicized of
the new threats to African societies that could offset
advances on other fronts, the issue of inadequate investment
in human capacity and social infrastructure applied much more
widely to health in general, to education and to other
government services necessary to undergird economic progress.

Internationally, developing countries and debt campaigners
forced a much higher level of attention to the need to resolve
the debt crisis afflicting African countries. Creditor
countries and multilateral institutions acknowledged the
inadequacy of previous efforts to resolve the problem under
the HIPC (Heavily Indebted Poor Country) initiative. New
commitments still fell far short of the total cancellation
campaigners argue is necessary, but promised to make modest
additional resources available to qualifying countries, most
of which are in Africa.

Other than these two issues -- HIV/AIDS and debt -- there was
little new movement in international and U.S. policy debate on
African issues. African conflicts continued to gain less high-
level international attention than those in other parts of the
world. And international economic policy towards Africa was
still derivative from global debates in which African voices
played little role.

Conflict Zones

Although the effects impacted the entire continent, ongoing
open warfare in Africa showed pronounced differences between
regions in 1999, a pattern that was likely to continue for the
year 2000. With the exception of Angola, returned to full-
scale conflict at the end of 1998, southern Africa remained
the largest zone of stability. In West Africa, also, most
countries were not at war. New peace settlements were
instituted during the year after additional bitter conflict in
Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau, although the prospects for
stability were both fragile and controversial. An amnesty
referendum in September in Algeria raised hopes for
diminishing violence in that country's internal conflict.

The largest interlinked set of unresolved conflicts included
Angola and the Republic of the Congo in west central Africa;
the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the heart of the
continent, Burundi and Rwanda in the Great Lakes region,
tieing in not only to eastern Congo to also to Uganda and to
Sudan; the perennial war in Sudan; and the border conflict
between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Despite a multilateral agreement for a peace settlement in the
Democratic Republic of Congo signed in Lusaka in July, the
momentum for implementation of the agreement was still weak at
year's end, with the Congolese antagonists, regional powers
and international community all less than whole-hearted in
their commitment to make it work. Finalization of a peace
accord in the border conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea
seemed no closer at the end of 1999, although the blockage was
identified publicly as disagreement on "technical issues."

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke
promised to make January 2000 the "month of Africa" in the
opening session of the UN Security Council in the new year.
While it would take more than a month to make significant
progress on any of Africa's unresolved conflicts, it should
quickly become apparent whether the U.S. and other major
powers will really give significantly greater attention to
supporting peace efforts.

One particularly critical test will be whether the new
international seriousness about implementing sanctions against
UNITA in Angola displayed in 1999 continues and is
strengthened this year. Another will be the level and
sophistication of international diplomatic attention given and
pressure mobilized to support the complex and diverse peace
processes in this set of conflicts. UNITA's current military
weakness in Angola, the existence of a peace framework
waiting to be implemented in the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, and the appointment of Nelson Mandela as the new
mediator for Burundi give new opportunities in several cases.
But it will not be easy to turn opportunity into real
progress.

Elsewhere, particularly in countries with recent peace accords
such as Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau, long-term stability
will continue at serious risk without more rapid progress on
demobilization and rebuilding of political and economic
institutions.

The Economic Agenda

In 1999 economic issues affecting Africa were on the agenda in
several international arenas, most prominently in discussions
of debt, HIV/AIDS, international trade (around the Seattle
meeting of the World Trade Organization) and, in the U.S., the
congressional debate on competing bills concerning trade with
Africa.

Despite the inherent interrelationships between these issues,
however, the public debate resulted in no coherent discussion
on economic strategies for economic progress in Africa.
Ongoing debate within multilateral agencies at an African and
global level had little echo within Western public policy
discourse. Critical perspectives from Northern and African
non-governmental sources had an impact in accentuating doubts
about the Washington consensus of free-market fundamentalism
-- most dramatically in the failure of the World Trade
Organization to launch a new round at Seattle.  But there was
little progress in gaining footholds for positive alternative
strategies in the public policy arena.

Growth rates for sub-Saharan Africa are projected by the World
Bank to increase modestly in 2000-2001, to 3.3 percent -- one
percentage point greater than the previous two years. Export
growth for the sub-Saharan region is expected to advance by
6.3 percent in the year 2000 (4.6 percent excluding South
Africa and Nigeria). Imports are not projected to keep pace,
allowing the current account deficit to shrink from 4.6
percent of gross domestic product in 1998 to 2.6 percent in
2000.

Despite new commitments made by creditor countries in 1999,
the impact of additional debt relief is likely to be modest.
In December 1999, multilateral and bilateral donors pledged an
additional $3.7 billion of "quick-disbursing" financial
assistance over three years in support of "poverty reduction
strategies nested within sound macroeconomic programs." How
the shift to an increased emphasis on "poverty reduction"
would affect structural adjustment programs in practice
remained to be seen.

In the year 2000, as in previous years, Africa will continue
highly vulnerable to commodity prices and global economic
developments. The momentum of the debt campaign, the
inconclusive outcome of the Seattle trade summit, and
continuing failure to change Africa's structural position in
the world economy will ensure continued questioning of the
Washington consensus. It is doubtful, however, whether
positive alternative strategies will gather sufficient force
to win more than token acknowledgement in international and
U.S. policy debates.

Democratization and Goverance

For the coming year, as in 1999 and 1998, the prospects for
further democratization of African countries present a very
mixed picture, with entrenched hierarchical and repressive
structures vying against a wide array of new initiatives.

In Nigeria, the election of President Olusegun Obasanjo last
year resulted in a successful transition to civilian rule and
opened up political space within the country significantly.
Fundamental issues, however, are still unaddressed, including
regional and ethnic inequalities -- particularly in access to
oil wealth -- and the division of powers between the federal
government and other units. The destruction of the Delta town
of Odi by the military in November 1999, among other
incidents, raised significant doubts about the government's
willingness to resolve the crisis in the Delta in a democratic
manner.

Elsewhere elections or referenda are scheduled during the year
in a number of African countries, including Zimbabwe, Lesotho,
Tanzania, Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, Ghana, Senegal and Western
Sahara. In Kenya and in Zimbabwe new constitutional review
processes are under way despite footdragging and manipulation
by incumbent regimes. In Cote d'Ivoire, the new military
regime will be under pressure to make good on its pledge to
move quickly towards democracy and demonstrate more openness
than the previously entrenched regime.

Whether inside or outside electoral arenas, momentum towards
greater democratization will be determined by how willing
political authorities show themselves to engage in real
dialogue with political opposition and non-govermental citizen
groups. In addition to Nigeria, countries where such
developments during the year are likely to have particularly
significant impact for their subregions include Kenya,
Zimbabwe and Cote d'Ivoire. The degree of progress -- or
regression -- on this front within African countries will
continue to be a major determinant of the prospects of
advances on other issues, as well as on African capacity to
project African perspectives in international debates.

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