AFRICA ACTION
Africa Policy E-Journal
October 13, 2003 (031013)

Africa: Trade and Markets, 2
(Reposted from sources cited below)

The annual Trade and Development Report released by the United
Nations Conference on Trade and Development, just before its
meeting in Geneva October 6-17, calls for a "policy rethink" on
the effects of market-driven free-trade policies on developing
countries. The report notes particularly disadvantageous results
for Africa, with further entrenchment of dependence on primary
commodities with volatile prices.

This posting contains excerpts from an UNCTAD report on issues
in Africa´s trade performance presented at the meeting. Another
posting today contains a general press release from UNCTAD, brief
excerpts from the Trade and Development Report, and the executive
summary and introduction from the Africa-specific report. Both
reports and additional background information is available on  the
UNCTAD website [http://www.unctad.org].

+++++++++++++++++end summary/introduction+++++++++++++++++++++++

TD/B/50/6

28 July 2003

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA:
ISSUES IN AFRICA´S TRADE PERFORMANCE

Report by the UNCTAD secretariat


STRUCTURE OF TRADE AND AFRICA´S PERFORMANCE

7. While the value of Africa´s manufactures increased by 6.3 per
cent annually, this seemingly high growth rate is about half the
growth rate recorded by Asia (14 per cent) and Latin America (about
12 per cent) and is from a relatively low base. It is also the
result of significant growth in labour-intensive and resource-based
semi-manufactures from a few countries, in particular Mauritius
(garments) and Botswana (rough diamonds). ...


9. The trends discussed above indicate that most African countries
have been losing market shares in commodity exports to other
developing countries, while at the same time most have been unable
to diversify into manufactured exports. Africa´s difficulties in
maintaining market shares for its traditional commodities derive
from its inability to overcome structural constraints and modernize
its agricultural sector, combined with the high cost of trading.
Africa has not been able to increase the productivity of its
agriculture because of low investment in the sector. As a result,
it has lost its competitive advantage in producing cocoa, tea and
coffee vis-a-vis the new and more efficient producers in Asia and
Latin America. The loss of market shares for cotton and sugar is
largely due to high subsidies and domestic support for less
competitive producers in the United States and Europe. ...


11. Furthermore, structural changes have increased the premium on,
inter alia, accurate market information, timely delivery and
packaging, which have become critical for gaining competitive
advantage in global markets. The African continent thus has a great
competitive disadvantage due to its weak and unreliable transport
and communication links and its tardiness in information technology
compared to other developing country regions. African countries
also lack a strong institutional capacity to provide the necessary
support services to its producers and exporters.

(a) Dynamic products

12. The most dynamic products in world trade are manufactures.
While the majority of these are high-tech products, some
labour-intensive manufactures, notably clothing, have seen rapid
growth in world trade as a result of the spread of international
production networks and subcontracting (see Trade and Development
Report 2002). In Africa, undergarments (SITC 846) are the only
important export item among the most dynamic products in world
trade (table 4). However, its share in total African exports is
only 1.7 per cent. Moreover, two countries (Mauritius and
Swaziland) account for over 85 per cent of total exports of this
product.

13. Seventeen of the 20 most important export items of Africa are
primary commodities and resource-based semi-manufactures. On
average, world trade in these products has been growing much less
rapidly than manufactures. ... World trade in other primary
commodities that account for an important proportion of total
exports of Africa, particularly agricultural products such as
coffee, cocoa, cotton and sugar, has been sluggish, with the
average growth of trade in such products in the past two decades
barely reaching one-third of the growth rate of world trade in all
products (i.e. 8.4 per annum over 1980-2000).

...

15. Africa´s difficulty in breaking into trade in market-dynamic
products is also related to the significant changes that have
occurred in recent years in international trade in agricultural
products. World trade has shifted away from traditional commodity
exports to non-traditional ones, such as fruits, vegetables, fish
and seafood, which have high income elasticity and lower rates of
protection in industrial and large developing countries. While
there have been significant declines in trade ranging from 18 to 11
per cent between 1980/1981 and 2000/2001 for coffee, cocoa, tea,
sugar and sugar products and textile fibres, international trade in
fruits and vegetables has increased by 15 per cent, fish and
seafood by 12 per cent and alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks by 10
per cent. ...

(b) Market access

18. The introduction of the African Growth and Opportunities Act
(AGOA) in 2000 and Everything but Arms (EBA) in 2001 by the United
States and the EU respectively is a welcome development in market
access for African countries. However, an analysis of EBA in 2001
revealed little use of the scheme owing in part to the fact that
the beneficiaries continued utilizing Lome protocols which arguably
have less restrictive rules of origin than the former (Brenton,
2003). An assessment of AGOA reveals that the additional benefits
represent a modest expansion over the preferential treatment that
SSA countries already enjoyed under the generalized system of
preferences (GSP) (UNCTAD, 2003:2). On the other hand, it is
contended that, had it not been for the restrictive rules of origin
governing market access under AGOA, its medium-term benefits would
have been five times greater (Mattoo et al., 2002).

PRICE VOLATILITY AND TERMS-OF-TRADE LOSSES

19. African countries depend heavily on a few commodities, which
have suffered from both price volatility and secular decline since
the 1960s. Price volatility for commodities like coffee, cocoa and
tea is mainly induced by supply shocks resulting from weather
conditions. ...

20. Secular decline in real prices emanates mainly from gluts in
commodity markets. For those commodities produced in the north, for
instance cotton, groundnuts, sugar and wheat, subsidies and othe r
domestic support for farmers underscore the significant increases
in the marketed surplus. For example, EU agricultural policies
stimulate output for export or reduce import needs. EU wheat
exports rose by 55 per cent to 22 million tons (increasing the EU´s
global market share by 6 percentage points to 20 per cent) between
1980/1981 and 1991/1992. The United States´ subsidies for cotton
production amount to US$ 3 4 billion annually, and with about 40
per cent of production exported, the United States is the biggest
world exporter of cotton.

21. In the case of tropical beverages such as coffee, cocoa and
tea, overproduction stems partly from increased productivity due to
technical advance by some traditional producers in Latin America
and Asia, as well as expansion of land allocated to production, for
instance in Brazil. ...


24. UNCTAD´s analysis of real commodity prices of 15 products of
export interest to Africa between 1960 and 2000 suggests that
bananas, copra, coconut, copper, cotton, coffee, cocoa, fish-meal,
gold, sugar, tea and white pepper suffer from high price
volatility. ...

25. On the whole, problems due to declining terms of trade for SSA
commodity-dependent countries are exacerbated by the high price
volatility of their major exports such as coffee, cocoa, gold, tea
and cotton. The extent of fluctuations in real export prices of SSA
compared to the other regions has been summed up in an IMF/World
Bank document as follows: "Sub-Saharan exports experienced roughly
twice the volatility in terms of trade than East Asia´s exports did
in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, and nearly four times the volatility
 that the industrial countries experienced" (cited in UNCTAD, 2001:
38).

(a) Impact on African economic performance

26. Volatility of commodity prices aggravates difficulties in
macroeconomic management and frustrates investment efforts because
of uncertainty about overall economic conditions, including
exchange rates, return on investments and import capacity,
particularly of critical imports such as oil.

27. Between 1997 and 2001, the UNCTAD combined price index in US
dollars fell by 53 per cent. That is, commodities lost more than
half of their purchasing power in terms of manufactured goods:
African commodity exporters would have had to double their export
volumes in 2001 to maintain their foreign exchange income at 1997
levels. ...

28. A major explanation for the poor economic performance of the
region in the past two decades and a half is the significant loss
of resources due to adverse terms of trade. ... Research carried
out by UNCTAD indicates that if SSA terms of trade had remained at
1980 levels, the share of the subcontinent in world exports would
have been double its current level...


30. According to a recent IMF/World Bank publication, a substantial
drop in the prices of their key export commodities explains the
deterioration in the debt-to-export ratios of 15 highly indebted
poor countries (HIPCs), of which 13 are African. ... In 2001, for
example, the price of coffee, which is the main export in five
HIPCs, fell by 35 per cent. Large price falls were also recorded
for other commodities that were the primary exports of at least one
HIPC; cotton fell by 19 per cent (Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, and
Chad), cashews by 69 per cent (Mozambique and the United Republic
of Tanzania), fish by 21 per cent (Senegal) and copper by 13 per
cent (Zambia). ...


WHO BENEFITS?

33. While African producers have incurred losses in foreign
exchange earnings, traders and firms in the higher steps of the
value chain have been reaping significant benefits. According to
the International Coffee Organization (ICO), for example, in the
early 1990s earnings by coffee-producing countries (exports f.o.b.)
were some US$ 10 12 billion, while the value of retail sales was
about US$ 30 billion. Today, the value of retail sales is US$ 70
billion, while producers receive only US$ 5.5 billion. With an
estimated 125 million people in the developing world dependent on
coffee production for their livelihoods, the impact of such a price
decline has been devastating in terms of social dislocation,
including social exclusion and poverty.

34. A value chain analysis of the coffee market reveals that, since
1985, a growing share of total incomes in the chain has accrued to
economic agents in the importing countries. The asymmetrical
character of power in the coffee value chain explains the unequal
distribution of total incomes. "In the producer countries it
[power] is very weak   farming is highly fragmented and the
destruction of marketing boards further reduces the capacity of
farmers to raise their share of value chain rents. At the importing
end of the chain, there are three major residues of power
importers, roasters and retailers. They compete with each other for
a share of value rents, but combine to ensure that few of these
return to the farmer or producer country intermediaries or
governments" (Fitter and Kaplinsky, 2001:16).

35. The World Bank reckons that, in 2002, the world market price of
cotton would have been more than 25 per cent higher but for the
direct support of the United States for its cotton producers.
Furthermore, various estimates suggest that, in 2002, cotton
subsidies by the United States and the EU have caused a loss of up
to US$ 300 million in revenue to Africa as a whole, which is more
than the total debt relief (US$ 230 million) approved by the World
Bank and the IMF under the enhanced HIPC Initiative to nine highly
indebted cottonexporting countries in West and Central Africa in
the same year. The cost of lower cotton prices to Mali, according
to Oxfam, amounted to $43 million in 2001. This is exactly the
amount of debt relief received by Mali from the World Bank and the
IMF in the same year under the enhanced HIPC Initiative. In Benin,
Mali and Burkina Faso, about 11 million people depend on cotton as
their only source of income, and in Benin, for example, lower
cotton prices have been associated with a 4 per cent rise in
poverty in 2001.

36. European Union reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
announced recently, involving moving away from production- and
price- linked subsidies, are a welcome development. It is, however,
too early to ascertain the impact of the reforms on output and
prices, or how soon it would be extended to products like sugar,
tobacco and cotton, which are important exports for some African
countries. Farm support systems in OECD countries are having
serious consequences in Africa for the poverty reduction objective
of the Millennium Development Goals. It is unlikely that the
current CAP reforms will change this situation even if they lead to
cuts in subsidies. They are focused on domestic support, not trade,
and contain no new provisions about tariffs or improving market
access for African agricultural exports.

POLICY ISSUES

42. While policy responses should take into account the
characteristics of the commodity and trends in its global markets,
two main issues need to be underscored. First, more than any other
developing region, Africa is heavily dependent on the export of
commodities, although paradoxically its share in world exports has
declined in the last two decades. Second, the majority of Africa´s
non-fuel commodity exports have been subject both to high price
volatility and a secular decline in real prices. The continent has
therefore been caught up in a downward spiral where such dependence
and its attendant ramifications have become a structural feature of
many of Africa´s economies. ...

43. The preceding analysis suggests a bigger role for the state
than is currently recognized in addressing commodity dependence in
African countries. Governments have a critical role to play in
providing extension services and reducing dependence by creating
conditions that promote horizontal and vertical diversification
towards higher-value-added products. Similarly, Governments are
best placed to coordinate an integrated programme of "supplyside
responses" effectively, as well as undertaking quality control. It
is therefore essential that institutional capacities be reinforced.

44. A horizontal diversification programme must incorporate more
dynamic, higher-value-added products such as fruits, vegetables,
fish and seafood, as well as temperate products such as grains and
meats, which are unrelated to existing or traditional exports, in
order to attain a balance between commodities subject to persistent
and short-lived shocks. ...

45. Institutional capacities must also be enhanced for the
provision of public goods and services that address market
imperfections, including eliminating segmentation of rural and
urban markets and linking them to regional and global markets.
Improvements in ports, cargo-handling facilities and
telecommunications infrastructure, together with the removal of
non-physical barriers to transportation (e.g. harmonization of
customs and transit documentation), should reduce costs and
increase the competitiveness of exports, in particular for
landlocked African countries. ...

48. The great potential for intra-African trade, which could create
additional markets for African exports, has yet to be exploited.
This has long been recognized, but efforts aimed at promoting it
have met with limited success. Promoting regional economic
integration through enhanced regional and intra-African trade is
one of the major objectives of the New Partnership for Africa´s
Development (NEPAD), and one can only hope that some tangible
results will now be achieved, considering the strong support for
NEPAD in the international development community. UNCTAD´s analysis
of trade between the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the
Southern African Development Community (SADC), for example, reveals
great potential for increasing trade in primary commodities,
including meat, tropical beverages, cotton, diamonds and non-
ferrous metals. The analysis also suggests that a few resource-
intensive basic manufactures, such as cotton yarn, cement and some
types of woven fabrics, could also be traded.

49. Problems stemming from commodity trade relations are manifested
at the multilateral level, hence domestic policy packages are
unlikely to be effective without a complementary package from the
international community.

50. To the extent that more advanced developing countries in Asia
and Latin America with a relatively diversified economic base move
from low-value agricultural commodities towards labour-intensive
manufactures and higher-value-added dynamic products, a space would
be created for the poorer countries in the production and export of
agricultural commodities, including processed products. This
depends, inter alia, on increased market access for these products.
... Such a process would be facilitated by greater liberalization
of OECD domestic agricultural markets through a significant
reduction, and finally elimination, of massive agricultural
subsidies and support for commodities such as cotton, groundnuts
and sugar, which are of export interest to Africa. In the meantime,
a mechanism is required at the international level to ensure that
countries providing subsidies to their producers should compensate
African countries for income losses arising from such subsidies on
a pro rata basis. ...


52. The persistence of the problems of commodity dependence in the
past three decades suggests that markets have not been able, and
cannot be expected, to solve the problem. It could also be argued
that the limited and some what half-hearted support of the
international community for the traditional price support and
stabilization schemes was an important factor in their demise. ...

54. African countries require sufficient resources in order to
invest in improving human and physical infrastructure and undertake
institution building. Thus, support by the international community
should be combined with a judicious set of policies designed to
help African countries through the provision of much increased
levels of official flows in order to help bridge the savings and
investment gap, as well as the provision of a permanent exit
solution to the debt problems of Africa.

+++++++++++++++++++++Document Profile+++++++++++++++++++++

Date distributed (ymd): 031013
Region: Continent-wide
Issue Areas: +economy/development+

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