Impending or be it inevitable economic disasters like all human-associated
calamities, have a subtle way of announcing their imminent arrival - be it to
the liking or disliking of those it will affect. Nay, oft times, the
imminence of such calamities are not subtle; but they are a
matter-of-factness as facts can be. In effect, and in lieu of the aforesaid
truism, with some impending disasters, we've always seen the writings on the
wall but for some reason or the other, we refuse to circumvent such impending
calamities either because we figured the problem that seemed to be the bane
of the difficulties will correct itself in the long term or simply the
problem is a problem because doom-sayers, cynics and alarmists say so; i.e.,
the problem is nothing but a figment of their over-worked imaginations.
A feisty conservative believer in historical inevitability - or a historical
inevitabilist, as Karl Popper would call them - once told me that every
impending life event comes with a harbinger: from environmental disasters
like El Nino to economic ones like the Great Depression, the signs were there
- albeit in encrypted codes - for the wise and profound to read. In an act of
whimsical flippancy, she added that even if a bath is impending for an
individual, we can tell; for one such sign is that that individual is dirty
and so it follows from the logical progression of this case, the individual
must have a bath. Never mind the simplistic logical progressions inherent in
her overall argument. Of course, there are inevitable things in life - death
being the most obvious of them. Save in instances where one is diagnosed as
terminally ill with, say, cancer, i.e., one's imminent death is
scientifically pronounced as a soon-to-be eventuality, can we generally read
the sign boards that lead to one's death-bed? The point being that to what
extent can we read signs of things to come? Is this a credible and reputable
thing to do? Needless to say that there is now a vast array of
pseudo-sciences that employ such historical inevitability language to sell
the idea of reading into the-yet-to-become future. This professed desire to
read the supposed road maps that signally identify the-yet-to-be future,
admittedly, is not all pseudo-science; the economics profession tend to
cautiously use data - treading very carefully - to offer or suggest insights
into the-yet-to-be future; and, of course, adding a very familiar caveat: all
such predictions are conditional that otherthings remain equal or ceteris
paribus.
My own convictions have little or no truck with such philosophical alignments
of historical inevitability and lurches moderately closer to cautiousness of
the economics profession's tendency to proffer conditional insights into the
future. I happen to believe, like Shakespeare seemed to me to suggest, that
men are sometimes masters of their own destiny and things sometimes only
become historically inevitable if men choose not act upon them to circumvent
impending disasters. Sometimes our inability or inaction to circumvent
situations or problems that present themselves as harbingers of impending
disasters is what make them historically inevitable. I wax philosophical to
properly introduce the philosophical difficulties associated with my essay
which treats a yet-to-be-declared future and assemble the delineated
philosophical rationale for justificationist purposes.
When Jammeh foisted his own brand of Peter Pan economics on the Gambia since
he illegally usurped power from a democratically elected government in 1994,
few doubted the economic malaise and suffering his ill-thought out "policies"
would help unleash on the Gambian poor. By Peter Pan economics, i refer it to
mean the view that the political economy of a government in a polity is to
tax, borrow and spend irresponsibly. More like slash-and-burn agriculture;
only difference is that with Peter Pan economics, the slashing and burning
are not only literal and figurative but also consequential. Today, Gambians
are 9% poorer under the watch of the AFPRC/APRC than they were under the
previous PPP government. This is a fact even the APRC government doesn't
deny. What makes matters worst, is the fact that there are no clever policy
initiatives and or drives that can genuinely ameliorate the increasing legion
of Gambian poor. The regime's "policies" are devoid of direction, coherence
and worst, consequentially designed to reduce the Gambian poor to the
ever-increasing slum poverty that permeates both the Gambia's rural and urban
settings. Today, whereas in the past Gambians could afford or struggle to
afford three square meals a day, this is simply not the case any more. At any
rate, today the average Gambian struggles to have a decent two sqaure meals a
day. Without any fear of exaggeration, it is fair to say that today poverty
has spiralled out of control as both the urban and rural poor see their
economic fortunes take a disastrous nose-dive: self-employed farmers cannot
sell their yields on time and they are owed large sums of money by State
sanctioned corrupt trading monopolies whilst the urban areas are a tragic
wreckage of neglect, long-term unemployment, youth restlessness and all those
assorted typical themes of urban deprivation. Even those rich businesses or
commercial retailers and wholesalers that once upon a time make places like
Leman, Wellington, Anglesea and the Albert Market environs the hub of
regional entreport economic activities, has and continues to see its core
economic pursuits decimated by the Peter Pan "policies" of the APRC regime.
Tourism has not been spared: that sector is in dire straits as other
non-existent sectors like manufacturing and industry continue to register
negligible gains - if one may call them that given the unharnessed potentials
of these sectors.
That is not the end of the story. If we for a second believe that this is the
end of the story or things are beginning to make positive renewal, then we've
misunderstood the extent of the economic malaise Jammeh has helped wrought on
poor and rich Gambians alike.The economic situation in the Gambia has become
so dire that another Jammeh presidency can only signal inevitable economic
disaster for the Gambia and the Gambian peoples. Take for instance the
extended family network - which is/was Africa's variation of the Welfare
State or a social safety-net for the vulnerable. A recent visitor to the
Gambia put it to me that the extended family network as a source of social
safety-net and economic amelioration for the poor, vulnerable and
underprivileged, is now being rendered obsolete by Jammeh's summary dismissal
of seasoned civil servants - who happen to be the sole bread-winners of
extended families - and the telling effects of the Gambia's shrinking economy
continues to negatively bear upon the overall social fabric of the Gambian
society. It is fair to say that with Jammeh's Peter Pan economics, the
extended family network as a source of social safety-net and economic
amelioration for the Gambia's vulnerable is getting increasingly decimated
and on the wane. With the Gambia's current unsustainable and increasingly
worrying economic, political and social milieu, the question becomes
relevant: whither the poor, the destitute and vulnerable in today's Gambia?
Alas, the answers are not to be found with this APRC regime, with its
disastrous economic record; and which most certainly remains responsible for
the current economic mess.
The general economic mood of the Gambia as things stand, is one epitomised by
the basic ingredients of an economy wobbly hanging on the slopes of a
freefall. All the themes of a wobbly economy teetering on a profound crisis
have manifestly identified themselves from 1994 to date. From fiscal and
monetary imprudency to spiralling inflationary upsurges to an almost
non-existent macro-economic framework to withstand the economic freefall the
Gambian economy seemed damned to by the APRC regime. This bleak and damning
economic portraiture then is the economic legacy of the APRC regime - as
things stand. Or so we think. But already - as with everything with the
current state of the APRC - the panic buttons are being frantically punched.
When the Alliance in a recent rally warned of the prospects of another Jammeh
presidency and the repercussions it will have on the ailing Gambian economy,
the APRC felt the need to refute any such claims the Gambian economy is in a
very poor shape. Not renown for his eloquence and or insights in economics,
SOS Famara Jaata issued the usual pathetic denial to an ignorant "Daily
Observer" reporter with no inkling about the nonsense he was helping to
peddle to the general public. Let us revisit the most appropriate segment of
Jaata's interview with the "Daily Observer" where he dishonestly informed us
that all is well with the Gambian economy:
"I am sorry if they blame the government for that but I think one has to be
realistic - Our programme has been commended by the IMF and World Bank. I
think we are on target with all our programmes and if these international
institutions are saying that the government has done well in terms of
reducing inflation, having adequate reserve, having a good macro-economic
framework and also doing most of the structural benchmarks we've met, the
whole world will say you are running good."
Anyone conversant with the current state of the Gambian economy will look
askance at Jaata's disingenuous and manifestly disreputable statement that
the APRC gov't is on target with all its programmes. SOS Jaata's statement
that the Gambian economy is on course to make gains vis-a-vis the stated
economic programmes of his gov't is nothing but a total fabrication and a
very misleading statement on the current state of the Gambian economy. Before
i debunk his lies with the true figues, i would like to state - judiciously,
if you like - what has always been whispered in certain quarters of
international financial institutions about economic figures from the Central
Bank of the Gambia [CBG] from 1994 to date. Not known for their honesty, the
AFPRC/APRC has always been suspected of fraudulently manipulating economic
data and key international institutions have since 1994 raised eye brows at
figues supplied by the CBG. Perhaps Jaata's current mendacity vis-a-vis his
statement that all is well with the Gambian economy should be a pointer to
the truism inherent in questioning any data emanating from an APRC controlled
and manipulated CBG. Let the APRC gov't be warned that questions are really
being raised in certain international financial quarters as to the veracity
of their economic figures.
Now back to the veracity of Jaata's contention that the APRC gov't is on
target with all its programmes. Where to begin? Let me simply begin by
bayonetting to death Jaata's contention that the Fund and the World Bank are
happy with the performance of the Gambian economy with the incontrovertible
facts and nothing but the facts. Current data from key lending and donor
institutions make a complete sham of Jaata's spurrious and wild horse claim
that they are on target with all their programmes. For instance, fiscal
deficit is on its way to surging to 4.4% of GDP from the original target of
2.5%; which in essence represents a 1.2% increase on top of the targeted
2.5%. Revenue performance, unsurprisingly, continues to dwindle year in year
out as the volume of international trade continues to shrink. From a targeted
D654.4 million revenue performance in the first half of 2001 actualised only
D500.7 million; representing a 23.7% below target performance. Most worrying,
is the deplorable state of the Gambia's volume of international and how it
undermined significantly the gov't's revenue targets. From a target of
D374.9, revenues collected on international trade only actualised D252.6:
representing the gov't's worst revenue performance; a sharp fall of 32% below
target. Heretofore, the gov't's greatest worry used to be how servicing its
external debts was petering out foreign reserve and cash and undermining
investment. Today, the story has but changed slightly with the twinning of
domestic and external debt servicing vying for the attention of the meagre
resources of the country. Now the biggest obstacle to fiscal discipline seems
to be coming from a spiralling domestic debt servicing and its concomitant
interest payments which makes the current overall debt portfolio
unsustainable. From D102.7 million in 2000, interest payments on domestic
debts soared by 8% to D112.3 million. Some economy in some good shape, huh?
When an economically irresponsible gov't loses the plot completely, it
resorts to pointing fingers at those at the receiving end of their
irresponsibility. Suddenly, the price hikes and the economically disastrous
Consumer Price Index of the Gambia is the fault of poor taxi drivers and the
poor peoples of the Gambia who continue to bankroll the profligate
life-styles of the APRC elites. Without a shred of decency and callousness
galore, SOS Jaata in his interview with the "Daily Observer" intimated to the
naive "Daily Observer" reporter that:
"... government hoped to engage these commercial drivers in dialogue
whenever the world market pronounces a decline in fuel price. In the event
the commercial vehicle drivers insist on maintaining fares at the current
level, government would come up with tax strategies but expressed the hope
that such a situation would not arise. He said when he assumed office as
finance secretary a year later, government reduced the prices of gas oil and
petrol yet drivers did not bring down fares consequently."
Maybe if Jaata were an honest bloke he would have informed the "Daily
Observer" reporter how much tax he has slapped on gas oil and petrol since he
became SOS for Finance to date. Since he didn't have the decency to inform
Gambians, let me do the decent thing and inform everyone that current tax for
both gas and super oil was 53% and 58% respectively in 1999-2000 fiscal year.
It stands to reason that Jaata may have increased the said tax again for the
2000-2001 fiscal year. Now, would Jaata do the decent thing and tell poor
Gambians that his absurd and graft-designed tax hikes are partly responsible
for the current price hikes in every basic commodity? I'm not holding my
breath.
As i philosophically delineated in my introduction, human disasters - be it
economic or environment ones - have their own lines of communications and it
is left to us decode the codes they come encrypted in. With Jammeh and
another five years of his maladministration, the codes foretell an inevitable
economic disaster. The current malignant economic tumour in the brain of the
Gambian economy - i choreographed at lenght in this essay - can only foretell
an inevitable economic disaster for Gambians - should they allow Jammeh's
Peter Pan economics to reign for another 5 years. I dare say the economic
disaster may have already started.
Hamjatta Kanteh
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