Hi,

Buharry, i think this is more than a strategy. Am just
from interviewing Dibba for the BBC and he confirmed
to the BBC that he was infact in the process of
registering his party to contest the October polls. He
even said there is very little chances to strike a
compromise here. According to Dibba the coalition is
more of a PPP/UDP thing than for the whole of the
opposition parties. However what is even more
darmmatic about this case is that already Dibba's
former allies like Hon Dembo Bojang of Bakau, and the
rest of the NCP MPs then are still saying that their
loyality to the UDP is unchangeable. This is a rather
interesting political development. My interview with
Dibba was also very revealing...too much info than
expected about the split and the dengerous underhand
political tactics. Not too good a situation for the
opposition.
NB...I think it will be important to send this Dibba
interview to the gambiansonline. Is it possible to
send you the interview electronically? Am using cool
editpro/ftp for my BBC jobs and i think one can send
the interview through ftp to your site. Am not sure
but if anybody knows please send me a mail.

E Sillah.










 --- Momodou Buharry Gassama <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Hi!
>     While this walkout by S.M. Dibba might look
> disastrous on the surface, I don't think we should
> panic. I believe that this is more of a tactical
> move than a desire to split the opposition. Mr.
> Dibba knows by all indications that his chances of
> winning the elections are rather slim. This is due
> to numerous facts. Among them are:
> 1. He has been out of politics for numerous years.
> 2. He has kept absolutely quiet during the years he
> was banned whilst people like O.J., Halifa Sallah,
> Ousainou Darboe, Hamat Bah etc. challenged Jammeh on
> numerous occasions thus gaining them the image of
> being fighters for the rights of Gambians. He will
> therefore have an uphill task of gaining the trust
> of Gambians.
> 3.Time is not on his side. He does not have
> sufficient time to put in place an effective
> machinery to enable him to outplay the APRC, UDP
> etc. I do not know if he has the resources, but it
> will take a lot to create a campaign machinery as
> effective as that of the APRC or UDP within such a
> short period.
> 4. Ousainou Darboe's presence on the political scene
> for the past years and his numerous battles against
> the government on human rights and other issues have
> gained him a lot of support. A lot of this support
> comes from former NCP supporters. Even though Dibba
> might be able to take some NCP supporters from
> Darboe, it would be an illusion to expect to get
> back all NCP supporters in light of the fact that he
> has been quiet and inactive for so long. I believe
> that O.J. would have a better chance of being
> elected than Dibba because he was widely known
> during the Jawara era. Add to this is the fact that
> he was the most vocal and challenging of all of the
> Decree 89 politicians. The realities on the ground
> however made the PPP declare its support for Darboe.
>
>     The above and other factors make it an uphill
> task for Dibba to expect to win the elections. While
> the NCP might have been the major opposition party
> during the Jawara era, the UDP has taken its place
> during the Jammeh era. Dibba therefore knows fairly
> well that Ousainou Darboe as a presidential
> candidate has more chances of winning than he does.
> One has to however use all the chips in one's block
> during negotiations. If Dibba had accepted Darboe's
> nomination on the spot, a calculation may be that he
> might not have been able to gain major concessions
> in a future government of national unity for his
> party. By walking out and knowing that he might be
> able to split the opposition vote, Dibba is hoisting
> himself in a position from which he can negotiate
> more favourable conditions. Dibba knows that his
> party is important in a coalition and that his
> walkout will not be the end of attempts to get him
> to join a coalition. He is probably waiting with
> conditions on a piece of paper for the delegation or
> phone call encouring him to join. This is about
> politics, negotiation and the art of gaining
> concessions. We should therefore not be surprised if
> we hear very soon that Dibba has accepted Darboe's
> nomination. Have a good day.
>
>
>                       Buharry.
>
>
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