KB,

Many thanks for your excellent contributions on the current debate. Clearly
the AFPRC/APRC has failed the Gambian peoples economically. The extent of the
economic malaise they have helped wrought on poor and rich Gambians alike is
yet to be known in full as they sit on the true figues of Gambia's economic
decline. Before i proceed to comment on the array of profound insights you
proffered, i would like to rectify what was a typo vis-a-vis the figures i
tendered for the taxation of gas and super oil by the APRC gov't. In my
original piece, this was what i tendered:

"Since he didn't have the decency to inform Gambians, let me do the decent
thing and inform everyone that current tax for both gas and super oil was 53%
and 58% respectively in 1999-2000 fiscal year. It stands to reason that Jaata
may have increased the said tax again for the 2000-2001 fiscal year. "

In fact, taxation for both super and gas oil vis-a-vis 2000-2001 fiscal year
looks like this:

 - The price of super oil currently stands at D9.80 of which D4.10 or 42% of
the price represents tax levied;

 - Whereas the price of gas oil currently stands at D7.75 of which D2.75 or
30% of the price represents tax levied.

Still none should doubt the effects these taxes have on the overall price
hike of both gas and super oil. These taxes are nothing but a cynical way of
grafting extra revenue from the empty pockets of the poor. The gov't figured
that since the volumes of both international and tourist trade continues to
shrivel drastically, they can design methods of graft that in essence will
make up for the loss of revenue from international and tourist trades. Whilst
it is true that relative fluctuation of world oil prices play their part in
the hikes; ultimately, the amoral or economically constrictive factor remains
the tax burden. This is the incontrovertible fact that SOS Jaata cannot spin.

Still on the regime's irresponsible economic policy - Peter Pan economics -
we have not taken seriously what could in effect be a crisis-in-quietitude;
that is a creeping fiscal crisis in the form of the gov't's domestic debt
portfolio and the fiscally unsustainable interests incurred on them. Since
this is election year, it stands to reason that donors are watching how
things progressing vis-a-vis the unresolved governance issues still pending
before committing themselves to further grants, aids and loans. Which means
that in order for Jammeh to bankroll his "re-election" campaign, he will
resort to domestic borrowing with the State as a default guarantor of the
loans. Or in the extreme, print more and more money with the help of Baaba
Jobe's criminal outfits. What is most likely is the first scenario. If this
happens to be the case - as i expect it to be - then here is another cause
for economic alarm.

As it is, the Gambia's current domestic debt portfolio and the concomitant
interests it continues to yield is not only unsustainable, but also
economically intolerable. Let us put things in perspective by judiciously
visiting a passage in the August 2001 IMF Country Report on the Gambia you
made mention of in your contributions. This how they spelt their concern over
the Gambia's unsustainable domestic debt portfolio:

"A shortfall in customs receipts and a slight overrun in expenditure (mostly
wages and other recurrent expenditures) were largely offset by shortfalls in
capital expenditure because of lower external project financing. The
resulting larger-than-programmed deficit (in dalasi terms) in addition to the
overpayment of the first instalment to Alimenta, contributed to an increase
in net government domestic borrowing in excess of the program level.
Government domestic burden increased to about 31% of GDP at end- 2000, up
from 27% at end- 1999."

Let me begin by speculating that the said "overpayment" to Alimenta is in
fact fictitious and a scam operated to line the pockets of the criminals
pretending to run our country. On a more serious note, this merely reflects
what i had said briefly in my original piece yesterday: it is certainly the
case that domestic interest payments are now competing with external debt
servicing to gobble up and deplete the meagre resources of the Gambia gov't -
especially, the much needed and scarce foreign exchange the scarcity of which
continues to enormously undermine the overall economic pursuits of economic
operators and consumers alike. All thanks to the fiscal indiscipline of this
irresponsible government. With the impending general elections, this
deplorable trend of mounting domestic debt servicing will in effect be on the
lurch as the regime goes out of its way to borrow more and more funds from
the private banks and other institutions to bankroll itself into power again.
This makes it more crucial for the Alliance to trumpet the message that with
another Jammeh maladminstration, the Gambia is heading for an inevitable
economic freefall.

As per your comment on the way out of this crisis, in a seperate cover i'll
offer some policy recommendations to tackle the immediate economic crisis of
the Gambia.

All the best,

Hamjatta Kanteh

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