Yus,

Whereas I will heed your counsel not to rejoice too soon, I just can't see
the opposition alliance, that you people so desperately want, finally
ccoming to fruition. I hate to tell you this but the diffrent parties in the
opposition all seem to be on parallel causes. I cannot just see them
converging despite all the efforts that some are genuinely trying to put
into it. And even when they do, the alliance may be based on such selfish
premises that the electorate will just be put off! The opposition may have a
few elected to the national assembly but the chances of them gathering a
combined total of more than 34% in the presidential elections seems
unlikely.

Have a good day, Gassa.

>From: Yusupha C Jow <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: Re: The NCP Needs To Be Reengaged
>Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 11:49:51 EDT
>
>Pa Modou Gassama:
>
>PDOIS and NRP were omitted from my summation for a few reasons:
>
>  Hamat Bah, the NRP's leader, was out of the country when the Alliance, as
>presently comprise, was sealed.  By virtue of his calling and
>congratulating
>the Alliance participants, it is almost safe to assume that his party will
>be
>part of the movement to oust the ruling party.  Let's adopt a wait and see
>attitude on that one!
>
>  I also took time to explain that, though PDOIS is not too critical in the
>grand scheme of things; i.e., their non-participation in this Alliance will
>not cause a major polarizing effect on UDP's core and will also not bring
>the
>large influx of supporters from the APRC ranks to those of the Alliance
>which
>the PPP's participation will create.
>
>Furthermore, the numbers that PDOIS will bring to the Alliance should they
>join, are negligible when compared to the supporter base the NCP and PPP
>have
>now.  Nevertheless, I did state that their participation, should it happen,
>should be welcome with open arms and that they could possibly make the
>difference should it come down to a tight race.
>
>PDOIS was not omitted from the big equation because they are entirely a
>non-factor as it concerns the Alliance.  I am more concerned about the
>NCP's
>non-participation in the Alliance because this could very possibly scuttle
>the chances of winning the next elections. PDOIS' absence, on the other
>hand,
>will most likely not have the same effect on the Opposition's chances come
>October. I hope you now understand why we must get NCP back to the
>negotiating table.
>
>Now, I most also counsel you not to rejoice too soon. Though my analysis
>might have been ominous for the Alliance, as presently comprised, the NCP's
>and NRP's participation will spell the APRC's doom.
>
>You must be shaking in your boots with recent developments.  The die is not
>cast yet.  Take a chill pilll and continue writing about Goats and
>Politics,
>or whatever you do there.  There is no need for premature celebrations now
>because, when all is said and done, you might be the one with mud on your
>face...
>
>
>Peace
>
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