Pa Modou Gassama:

PDOIS and NRP were omitted from my summation for a few reasons:

 Hamat Bah, the NRP's leader, was out of the country when the Alliance, as
presently comprise, was sealed.  By virtue of his calling and congratulating
the Alliance participants, it is almost safe to assume that his party will be
part of the movement to oust the ruling party.  Let's adopt a wait and see
attitude on that one!

 I also took time to explain that, though PDOIS is not too critical in the
grand scheme of things; i.e., their non-participation in this Alliance will
not cause a major polarizing effect on UDP's core and will also not bring the
large influx of supporters from the APRC ranks to those of the Alliance which
the PPP's participation will create.

Furthermore, the numbers that PDOIS will bring to the Alliance should they
join, are negligible when compared to the supporter base the NCP and PPP have
now.  Nevertheless, I did state that their participation, should it happen,
should be welcome with open arms and that they could possibly make the
difference should it come down to a tight race.

PDOIS was not omitted from the big equation because they are entirely a
non-factor as it concerns the Alliance.  I am more concerned about the NCP's
non-participation in the Alliance because this could very possibly scuttle
the chances of winning the next elections. PDOIS' absence, on the other hand,
will most likely not have the same effect on the Opposition's chances come
October. I hope you now understand why we must get NCP back to the
negotiating table.

Now, I most also counsel you not to rejoice too soon. Though my analysis
might have been ominous for the Alliance, as presently comprised, the NCP's
and NRP's participation will spell the APRC's doom.

You must be shaking in your boots with recent developments.  The die is not
cast yet.  Take a chill pilll and continue writing about Goats and Politics,
or whatever you do there.  There is no need for premature celebrations now
because, when all is said and done, you might be the one with mud on your
face...


Peace

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L
Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html
You may also send subscription requests to [log in to unmask]
if you have problems accessing the web interface and remember to write your full name and e-mail address.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------