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Date: Wed, 24 Jan 2001 20:17:23 -0500
From: APIC <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Africa: Policy Outlook 2001

Africa: Policy Outlook 2001
Date distributed (ymd): 010124
APIC Document

+++++++++++++++++++++Document Profile+++++++++++++++++++++

Region: Continent-Wide
Issue Areas: +economy/development+ +security/peace+
 +political/rights+
Summary Contents:
This posting contains APIC's annual Africa policy outlook for this
year, preceded by a short note from APIC Director Salih Booker.

+++++++++++++++++end profile++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Dear Friends

The enclosed policy outlook lays out some of the immense challenges
faced by all of us concerned about Africa's future. This year APIC
will be completing a merger with The Africa Fund and the American
Committee on Africa for greater impact on these issues. We are very
grateful to the almost 400 of you who made financial contributions
to us last year to help us continue and expand our work. We need
your continued support in the year ahead. Many of the rest of you
who receive this service tell us you value our work greatly, but
have not yet contributed.  We hope that you will do so this year.
For more information, to contribute on-line or to print out a
contribution form, go to: http://www.africapolicy.org/join.htm

Salih Booker

P.S. I would also like to call your attention to the availability
on-line of the full text of the paper by Joe Collins and Bill Rau
on HIV/AIDS and Failed Development. A summary version was
distributed by APIC last year
(http://www.africapolicy.org/docs00/rau0010.htm).  The full text
has now been posted on the UNRISD web site in Adobe Acrobat format
(see http://www.unrisd.org/engindex/publ/cat/publdna.htm).

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Africa Policy Outlook 2001

By the end of the year 2000, a peace treaty between Ethiopia and
Eritrea, peaceful transfers of power after elections in Senegal and
Ghana, and continued growth of public debate about the future in
almost every African country were among signs of advance in a year
that was more than usually short of good news. Economic growth in
sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to climb to 2.7 percent for the
year, up from 2.1 percent in 1999.  Per capita income in the region
south of the Sahara rose by an estimated two tenths of one percent.
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced
debt reduction packages of $34 billion for 22 countries, including
18 in Africa.

But the debt relief packages, slow in coming and even slower in
implementation, provided no sustainable exit from the continent's
overwhelming debt burden.  The aggregate economic growth increase,
primarily due to rising income for oil-producing countries and to
a limited economic recovery in South Africa, was not widely shared.
The conflict zone that extended from Angola in the southwest
through the Congo to Sudan in the northeast was still a
humanitarian disaster area of enormous proportions.  In December,
the Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that 28 million
Africans were at risk of severe food shortages, due both to war and
to renewed drought in eastern Africa.

HIV/AIDS

Over every other issue loomed the exponentially growing HIV/AIDS
pandemic, which cost an estimated 2.4 million African lives during
the year. The continent registered 3.8 million new infections in
2000, a slight decrease from the 4 million in 1999. But virtually
every international agency, including the IMF and the World Bank,
acknowledged during the year that the unprecedented humanitarian
disaster - the most deadly epidemic in human history - would also
have escalating pervasive negative effects on economies and
governments.

The World AIDS conference in Durban, South Africa in July and the
African Development Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in December were
the highlights of much increased public attention to the pandemic
during the year, both globally and within Africa.   News reports
stressed not only the overwhelmingly disproportionate effect of
AIDS on Africa, but also the failure of the international community
to respond with more than token action. Drug companies were
targeted by activists and exposed by the media for blocking efforts
to provide affordable treatment drugs to combat the effects of
AIDS. The 'Statement of Concern on Women and HIV/AIDS' issued at
the conference drew particular attention to the significance of
gender inequalities defined by class, generation, race, ethnicity
and political power.

An African summit meeting on the issue is scheduled for Nigeria in
April, and a special UN Assembly on HIV/AIDS for June. But whether
there is real progress during the year will depend on the answers
to practical questions such as the following:

(1) to what extent other African countries emulate Senegal and
Uganda in putting into effect comprehensive AIDS prevention
programs,

(2) whether wealthy countries and multilateral agencies come
anywhere near increasing finance on HIV/AIDS to the $3 billion a
year estimated to be needed for prevention and $4.5 billion a year
more for treatment (current funding levels are probably less than
10% of this for prevention, and almost none for treatment), and

(3) whether drug companies and the international community can be
pressured to respond to the demand to 'reduce the prices of [AIDS-
related] drugs to a level commensurate with their production costs'
(African Development Forum, AIDS Consensus and Plan, December
2000). [Initial indications are that the Bush administration will
instead be reversing concessions on this issue made by the Clinton
administration - see (1) below.]

Debt

At year's end the debt burden also remains a pervasive obstacle to
Africa's capacity to deal with other issues, despite additional
relief won from creditors. The $34 billion package announced under
the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative included $25
billion for 18 African countries, almost half the outstanding debt
owed by those countries.  Nigeria, one of the African countries not
eligible under HIPC, also gained a rescheduling package from
creditors saving it $1 billion in payments this year - on its debt
of some $30 billion.  Even the HIPC relief, however, will only be
implemented over a period of years, still leaves out 15 African
countries formally included in the program, and goes with long
lists of new conditions countries must implement to get the relief.
The creditors' announcements of progress have satisfied neither
debtor countries nor activists engaged on the issue, because their
programs do not provide sustainable solutions.

While a few countries, notably Mozambique and Uganda, have received
substantial enough reductions to have a significant effect, the
issue will continue to loom large on the African agenda in 2001. A
continent-wide meeting of debt cancellation activists in Dakar in
December called not only for cancellation of illegitimate debts,
but also for reparations from rich countries for damage to Africa.
Worldwide the demand is rising for a new mechanism to deal with the
debt.  Thus in September UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan called for
'immediate suspension' of all debt payments by HIPC countries and
others that should be added to the list, and for an independent
body - not controlled by creditor countries - to consider new
mechanisms to address the debt.  Among other venues, the annual G-7
meeting of rich countries in Genoa, Italy in July will be the
target of debt cancellation activists.

Economy

For 2001, international agencies rate Africa's economic prospects
as modestly better than last year.  However, their forecasts
stressed that almost all African countries remained highly
vulnerable to changes in primary commodity prices. As a result,
growth will be largely concentrated in oil-producing countries,
which are expected to benefit from high prices through 2002.  But
export prices of most primary commodities, such as coffee and other
agricultural products, are expected to remain depressed.

The debate over economic policies will continue in the coming year,
as the World Bank and its allies continue to preach the virtues of
market openness and critics denounce the lack of structural change
that could lead to sustainable human development on the continent.
The creditors' 'Washington Consensus' on economic policy is now
generally accompanied by an expressed commitment to poverty
reduction as well as growth.  Some measures - such as demanding
greater efficiency and anti-corruption measures from African
governments - win support across the political spectrum.  But
African civil society is strongly critical of the standard packages
imposed by creditors, even when the label is changed from
'structural adjustment' to 'poverty reduction.'  Other observers
note that even when particular measures are justified, imposing
them from outside without democratic consent runs a high risk of
counterproductive micro-management.

The World Bank, as well as developing countries, now regularly
stresses that high trade barriers by rich countries hurt developing
countries. So far, however, measures to reduce these barriers,
whether the U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act passed last
year, or the current 'Everything but Arms' initiative now being
debated by the European Union, seem to offer more than they
deliver. 2001 will be a critical year to see whether such
initiatives deliver more than token benefits to a few African
countries.

Conflict Zones

Ongoing open warfare in Africa showed pronounced differences
between regions in 2000, as in the previous year, although the
effects impacted the entire continent. Fragile cease-fires
punctuated by episodes of violence, rather than open war, prevailed
in earlier conflict zones in West Africa. A peace treaty between
Ethiopia and Eritrea was finally signed at the end of the year, and
deployment of UN observers began.  As in 1999, the largest
interlinked set of unresolved conflicts included Angola in west
central Africa; the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the heart
of the continent, Burundi and Rwanda in the Great Lakes region,
tieing in not only to eastern Congo but also to Uganda and to
Sudan; and the perennial war in Sudan itself.

The death of Congolese President Laurent Kabila in January removed
one of the most stubborn blocks to implementation of a peace
settlement in that country.  However, the odds against significant
advance towards peace remained high, unless both Congo's neighbors
involved in the war and the international community more broadly
engage actively in much more serious efforts to reconcile their own
interests as well as to engage Congolese civil society and provide
support for Congolese efforts to establish a government
representative of their interests.

In other conflicts, the use of natural resources to buy weapons
will continue on the agenda in 2001. Year-end reports on conflict
in Angola and Sierra Leone pinpointed the role of the exchange of
diamonds for weapons.  It was unclear, however, how far talk about
'conflict diamonds' would go towards more effective measures for
implementing sanctions to reduce the flow of arms in Angola, Sierra
Leone and neighboring countries.  Moreover, the peace plans in both
these countries remain unimplemented. In Sudan, increased oil
revenues to the Sudanese regime - now providing 20 percent of the
government budget - have further reduced the chances for steps
towards peace.  International condemnation of the regime and of the
Canadian oil company Talisman, the lead producer, will likely
continue to grow during the year.

Democracy and Human Rights

For the coming year, as in other recent years, the prospects for
further democratization of African countries present a very mixed
picture. While the majority of African countries claim legitimacy
as a result of competitive elections, and independent press and
civil society organizations in most countries continue to advance,
the opportunities for participation and free expression continue to
be widely limited by entrenched hierarchical and repressive
structures.  In several countries, notably Cote d'Ivoire and
Zimbabwe, the failure to advance further with democratic change may
prove the catalyst for further civil strife.

Elections in Senegal in March, Mauritius in September, and Ghana in
December each resulted in peaceful transfers of power. In Cote
d'Ivoire, a popular revolt ousted army leader General Guei, but
neither the Presidential elections which precipitated the ouster
nor subsequent parliamentary elections, boycotted by a major
opposition party because of the exclusion of their leading
candidates, seemed likely to lead to stability in the coming
year. In Zimbabwe the opposition Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) won 57 of 120 contested seats (30 are appointed by
government) against President Robert Mugabe's incumbent ZANU
(PF), bringing a strong opposition voice to Parliament.  The
multi-faceted conflict over economic decline, involvement in the
war in the Congo, unresolved land reform issues, and human rights
abuses by the Mugabe government will continue in 2001 to be a
threat to southern African stability.

Elsewhere, two key African countries seen as hopeful by many
faced significant challenges in the coming year. In  Mozambique,
a widely cited model for post-conflict democratic reconciliation,
the assassination of investigative journalist Carlos Cardoso and
the death of 80 prisoners by suffocation in northern Mozambique
raised questions about the will of the government to maintain
accountability and preserve peace. And giant Nigeria managed
another year of civilian rule but fundamental issues still
remained unaddressed, including regional and ethnic inequalities,
and in particular the fair distribution of oil wealth. And in
Africa's other 'giant,' South Africa, the lines are being sharply
drawn over government economic policy and its response to the
AIDS pandemic.

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(1) Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report http://report.kff.org/hivaids

1/23/2001 Bush Reviewing Executive Order Allowing International
Importation of Generic HIV/AIDS Drugs President Bush may reverse
former President Clinton's executive order that allows sub-Saharan
African governments to import generic versions of HIV/AIDS
medications from other countries where the drugs are manufactured
while still under U.S. patent, Bloomberg News/Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette reports.

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Africa Policy Information Center (APIC).APIC provides
accessible information and analysis in order to promote U.S.
and international policies toward Africa that advance economic,
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