The sooner people stop talking about the "Vision 2020" and concentrate  on
the primordial challenge of reducing the incidence of poverty in The Gambia,
the better it is for the country. To make The Gambia a middle income country
by 2020, means that we should achieve a minimum per capita income of $800.
The current level of per capita income is around $350. With an average
growth rate of 4 percent per annum, it will take a minimum of 18 years for
our nation's income to double to $700. (this comes from the rule of 70 in
economics).  18 years from now will take us close to 2020. So even the lower
end of a middle income country will not be achieved. There is only one
middle income country in the whole of West Africa and surprisingly it is
Cape Verde, not Senegal or Cote d'Ivoire and these countries have a higher
per capita income that Gambia. Vision 2020 was articulated without any
empirical work done as to the sustainability of economic policies
and the attainability of making The Gambia a middle income country.

There is no doubt that the incidence of poverty is on the increase. What we
should be concentrating on is how to achieve the development goal of
reducing poverty in the Gambia by 50 percent by 2015, achieving universal
primary education, reducing infant mortality rates. To do so need at least a
growth rate of 7 percent. These are the challenges. For there to be
sustainable development in Gambia, accelerated investment is needed in
health and education and rural infrastructure. It is only fair to say that
the government has made some progress in these sectors. The payoffs, however
from such investments are long term. It takes up to the time a student
finishes school to contribute productively to the society. There are lessons
of experience we could learn from the most financially stable, democratic
and pluralistic countries in Africa (Botswana and Mauritius, the two
countries that have registered the most impressive growth and development
record in Africa). Economic development does not only depend on economic
policy. Improving the welfare of Gambians is predicated by improved
accountability for public resource management, developing democratic
institutions and an unblemished and good governance record and implementing
codes of good practice in fiscal transparency

The government has intervened in health and education, but still the level
of poverty is on the increase. We need to take stock and reappraise the
policy interventions. COllective action is need.

The challenge is not vision 2020 or to make The Gambia the Singapore of
Africa but integrating pro poor macroeconomic policies with social and
sectoral objectives to spur growth and reduce poverty.

Dr. Basil Jones
26/04/01
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