Tombong's analysis of the current political situation in Senegal seems
somewhat lopsided to me. I think he accorded Djibo Ka's party the URD (Union
du renouveau démocratique) more political clout that it really has. More
importantly he failed to mention that the URD's youth wings and most of its
grassroots supporters are against Djibo's decision to support the PS (Parti
socialiste) in the second round.
Personally, like most political pundits in Senegal, I'm not surprised by
Djibo's move. His heart had never left the PS cradle, anyway. Had Tanor
Dieng not succeeded him as Diouf's dauphin I strongly wonder whether Djibo
would have left the PS to form his own party. There is also the
long-standing distrust between him and Moustapha Niasse (who reportedly once
slapped him) in the presence of party members. He was already coveting the
post of prime minister from Wade in the event that the PDS (Parti
démocratique sénégalais) wins the next round; the very position that Wade
has publicly promised Niasse.
Niasse, it should be noted, has a strong following among Senegal's religious
brotherhoods, especially, the Niassen and the Mourides. For many years, by
a single stroke of "ndiguel"/ verbal order, the leader of the Mourides in
Touba would influence the victory of the PS. After last year's mishandling
of the water crisis during the "maggal" in Touba, the Mouride brotherhood
started speaking a different language. They stated that there'll be no more
"ndiguel" to decide on who the Mourides should vote for. That's not good
news for the PS.
Tombong tended to downplay most of the other problems that fetter economic
development in Senegal. The bureaucracy, to start with, is just too
cumbersome. A quick glance at the list of ministries and portfolios, and
you'll see that it is all duplication and redundancy. I've not even
mentioned the creation of a senate by the PS. It's just unbelievable for a
developing country like Senegal to have such a heavy bureaucracy and a
"caisse noire", where government functionaries can take funds directly for
more than three decades.
It's laughable that Abdou Diouf is beginning to wake up to the dire needs of
the youths. Senegal's system of education has been paralysed for many years
by lack of sufficient funds. Professors have been complaining incessantly
about the scarcity of research and teaching tools. University Cheikh Anta
Diop is an epitome of this crisis. Alternate strikes by students and
professors year in year out have almost eroded the quality of education that
was at one time the envy of other African universities. Unemployed young
men walk around the pavements of Dakar with Master's degrees. Most students
would rather stay on campus where they can at least have a room and a meal
than go out there and face congestion at home.
I don't want to belabour this issue any further. However, the Senegalese
people through their opposition parties are sending a message to all
fool-hardy African presidents with pseudo-democracies: no more nonsense and
empty promises, ça suffit!
The bells have tolled for demagogues and dictators. I sincerely look forward
to a "sopi" in Senegal this time.
Hamadi
>From: TOMBONG SAIDY <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: SENEGALESE ELECTIONS
>Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 04:35:02 PST
>
>The Senegalese landscape is undergoing some interesting geothermal
>transformation at a speed that excites political analysts. Few days ago it
>seems that President Joof was going to loose the upcoming elections,
>however
>there are developments that are now tilting things in favour of President
>Joof.
>
>Mr. Djibo Ka the leader of URD and a former supporter of PS (the Socialist
>Party led by President Joof) has announced that he will support President
>Joof in the second round of the Presidential Elections.
>
>During the first round of the elections the results were as follows:
>
>Joof - PS = 40%
>Wade - PDS =31%
>Niasse - AFP = 16%
>Ka - URD =7%
>
>Mathematically if the opposition unite, they would win provided that all
>their supporters vote for Wade in the second round. However, now that Djibo
>Ka is supporting Joof, things could take a different turn. Another
>dimension
>to elections is that there were 1 million voters who did not vote in the
>first round. Political analysts are having a field day in predicting who
>the
>winner will be in the second round.
>
>I am predicting that President Joof will win the second round. My reasons
>are:
>
>1. The majority of those who voted for Niasse and Djibo Ka (totalling 23%)
>are staunch supporters of PS, however they are not satisfy with the reform
>taking place within PS. They are also not happy with Tanor Dieng's role and
>prominence within PS. However they have been voting against Wade for the
>past 20 years and most of them would rather stick with President Joof than
>vote for Wade - "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't
>know". I am saying that at least half of the voters who voter for Djibo Ka
>and Niasse will vote for President Joof.
>
>2. The fact that Djibo Ka is supporting President Joof, I believe even
>validates my argument further that "the devil you know is better than the
>devil you don't know". If most of his supporters follow his advice,
>President Joof's chances will increase.
>
>3. The one million voters who did not vote in the first is a critical
>number
>and it is difficult to predict which way they will vote. However, if they
>are seen as a sample representing Senegalese voters the result could be
>they
>same as in the first round. This means 40% of these voters will vote for
>President Joof and some of those who would have voted for Niasse and Djibo
>Ka would also vote for President Joof for the same reasons I stated before.
>
>4. President Joof needs only 11% more and he will get it in the second
>round. The second round is scheduled for 19th March, two days after Tobaski
>and this is advantageous to President Joof because most voters, especially
>those in Dakar and environs, have gone to their respective villages for the
>Tobaski and some of them will not make back on time to vote. This is
>critical because the support of the opposition is very strong in the
>capital
>and urban areas.
>
>5. Serign Modu Kara Mbacke has announced that he will vote for President
>Joof because the late Seriegn Touba told him in a dream that President Joof
>will continue to rule Senegal. He urges all his supporters to vote for
>President Joof. This has caused a division within the Mourite Brotherhood
>and the impact of his announcement will be felt one way or the other.
>
>6. There will be further development from now against Sunday and all signs
>are President Joof will win, may be by a small majority of 1% to 3%, but he
>will win the second round.
>
>7. I just returned from Dakar on a three days (10 - 12 March) private visit
>and this visit gave me more opportunity to analyse the situation. President
>Joof was on SUD FM live in a forum where he answers questions from the
>public and he did very well.
>
>8. His only problem is the youth vote (the voting age is 18 years and
>above.
>This group has not seen any progress during there live time (i.e. the past
>18 to 25 years). This group has seen their peers, brothers, sisters etc
>graduate from college, universities and are unemployed. However, he has
>come
>with plans to address the unemployment and other youth related problems. He
>will convince a few of them to vote for him.
>
>I conclude by saying that lets pray for the whole process to be peaceful
>because if there is trouble in Senegal we will be affected one way or the
>other. Soldiers are deployed around Dakar, especially around strategy and
>important installations.
>
>
>
>PEACE
>
>TOMBONG SAIDY
>
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L
>Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L
Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L
Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
