The Senegalese landscape is undergoing some interesting geothermal
transformation at a speed that excites political analysts. Few days ago it
seems that President Joof was going to loose the upcoming elections, however
there are developments that are now tilting things in favour of President
Joof.
Mr. Djibo Ka the leader of URD and a former supporter of PS (the Socialist
Party led by President Joof) has announced that he will support President
Joof in the second round of the Presidential Elections.
During the first round of the elections the results were as follows:
Joof - PS = 40%
Wade - PDS =31%
Niasse - AFP = 16%
Ka - URD =7%
Mathematically if the opposition unite, they would win provided that all
their supporters vote for Wade in the second round. However, now that Djibo
Ka is supporting Joof, things could take a different turn. Another dimension
to elections is that there were 1 million voters who did not vote in the
first round. Political analysts are having a field day in predicting who the
winner will be in the second round.
I am predicting that President Joof will win the second round. My reasons
are:
1. The majority of those who voted for Niasse and Djibo Ka (totalling 23%)
are staunch supporters of PS, however they are not satisfy with the reform
taking place within PS. They are also not happy with Tanor Dieng's role and
prominence within PS. However they have been voting against Wade for the
past 20 years and most of them would rather stick with President Joof than
vote for Wade - "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't
know". I am saying that at least half of the voters who voter for Djibo Ka
and Niasse will vote for President Joof.
2. The fact that Djibo Ka is supporting President Joof, I believe even
validates my argument further that "the devil you know is better than the
devil you don't know". If most of his supporters follow his advice,
President Joof's chances will increase.
3. The one million voters who did not vote in the first is a critical number
and it is difficult to predict which way they will vote. However, if they
are seen as a sample representing Senegalese voters the result could be they
same as in the first round. This means 40% of these voters will vote for
President Joof and some of those who would have voted for Niasse and Djibo
Ka would also vote for President Joof for the same reasons I stated before.
4. President Joof needs only 11% more and he will get it in the second
round. The second round is scheduled for 19th March, two days after Tobaski
and this is advantageous to President Joof because most voters, especially
those in Dakar and environs, have gone to their respective villages for the
Tobaski and some of them will not make back on time to vote. This is
critical because the support of the opposition is very strong in the capital
and urban areas.
5. Serign Modu Kara Mbacke has announced that he will vote for President
Joof because the late Seriegn Touba told him in a dream that President Joof
will continue to rule Senegal. He urges all his supporters to vote for
President Joof. This has caused a division within the Mourite Brotherhood
and the impact of his announcement will be felt one way or the other.
6. There will be further development from now against Sunday and all signs
are President Joof will win, may be by a small majority of 1% to 3%, but he
will win the second round.
7. I just returned from Dakar on a three days (10 - 12 March) private visit
and this visit gave me more opportunity to analyse the situation. President
Joof was on SUD FM live in a forum where he answers questions from the
public and he did very well.
8. His only problem is the youth vote (the voting age is 18 years and above.
This group has not seen any progress during there live time (i.e. the past
18 to 25 years). This group has seen their peers, brothers, sisters etc
graduate from college, universities and are unemployed. However, he has come
with plans to address the unemployment and other youth related problems. He
will convince a few of them to vote for him.
I conclude by saying that lets pray for the whole process to be peaceful
because if there is trouble in Senegal we will be affected one way or the
other. Soldiers are deployed around Dakar, especially around strategy and
important installations.
PEACE
TOMBONG SAIDY
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