According to the BBC, this is the mess this man has and will create:
by BBC News Online's Emma Clark
Presidential elections this week in the Gambia will push the small West
African nation into the international limelight.
Already there are mutterings of electoral fraud and possible human right
abuses - charges that may discourage the IMF from providing the country
with a new loan facility.
President Jammeh: 'Lack of discipline'
The Gambian economy is still very much a work in progress, with much of the
government's efforts spent on reducing poverty.
President Yahya Jammeh is not known for his disciplined approach and has
exasperated international donors by issuing decrees without consulting his
administration.
"He has a habit of mandating the construction of hospitals without taking
into account the impact on the budget of the government," says one
economist, who preferred not to be named.
The government has also committed a series of policy mistakes which have
dented its economic progress.
Click here to view the Gambia's Gross Domestic Product
Peanuts
To date, the country has survived largely on its groundnut industry, which
provides a livelihood for 70% of the population.
Most of the groundnut crop is processed into peanuts and sold on the
international markets.
Last year the country had a bumper year because of good rains, and the Food
and Agriculture Organisation expects another good season this year.
Agriculture contributes a third of the country's gross domestic product,
generating much of its foreign exchange.
Government dispute
Until recently, however, the Gambia was plagued by problems with marketing
its groundnuts to buyers.
A dispute between the government and a Swiss-based company called Alimenta,
which controlled groundnut processing and marketing in the Gambia,
disrupted harvests between 1998 and 2000.
Good rains produced a bumper crop last year
A crisis arose in February 1999 after the government alleged that Alimenta
had been involved in money laundering and seized processing plants
belonging to the company.
Alimenta challenged the action in international courts, and Gambia has been
forced to pay Alimenta $11.4m for lost earnings and investment.
Despite grants from the European Union, the Alimenta payout was one reason
why the Gambian government missed IMF performance criteria earlier this
year.
Failed scheme
The country's services sector - mainly trade - makes up 54% of GDP.
Like the groundnuts, trade has also had its fair share of problems.
A new scheme in October 1999 to monitor imports into the country and boost
customs revenues failed spectacularly.
Port of Banjul hit by government scheme
"It made imports more expensive and changed trade routes," says John
Arthur, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Delays and prohibitive charges merely prompted traders to avoid the Gambian
Port of Banjul and ship goods direct to neighbouring Senegal.
As a result, port traffic dropped by 22.5% between December 1999 and
January 2000, adds Mr Arthur.
Transit trade, which once thrived before the introduction of the scheme, is
only just beginning to recover following the cancellation of the scheme in
July.
The Gambia's dependence on these two sectors has left the economy
vulnerable to one-off shocks like the Alimenta affair.
Tourism
Efforts to boost other areas such as tourism, horticulture and the export
of exotic fruits have been constrained by under-investment, corruption and
government red tape.
Tourism is expected to suffer
In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on New York last month, tourism
is expected to suffer, with the EIU predicting that "it could take time
before it returns to pre-2000 levels".
In 1999-2000, 77,488 air charter tourists visited the country - 60-70% of
which were British.
The numbers were down from 119,983 in 1998-99 and 90,810 in 1997-1998.
This has been attributed to yet another policy blunder when the Gambia
banned all-inclusive holidays over fears that foreign tour operators were
taking all the profits.
The ban has since been lifted.
"We have put this behind us now," says Saye Drameh, a senior tourism
officer at The Gambia National Tourist Office in London.
Ms Drameh also says that the government plans to give the Office more funds
to promote the industry.
She is, however, cautious about the impact of the attacks in the US.
"These events do have a knock-on effect, but we are still having enquiries
about holidays in the Gambia.
"Hopefully, things won't turn out drastically because the industry is quite
fragile."
Corruption
The uncertain political climate since President Jammeh took power in 1994
with a military coup has kept investors and entrepreneurs at bay.
"Corruption is rife and government is significant issue," says the unnamed
economist.
"Many economic activities are held by a clique close to the government."
This week's elections are not expected to bring any radical changes - most
observers believe the current president "already has it in his pocket".
The question will be whether the IMF holds back on its funding for 2002-
2005 if human rights abuses are manifest.
Currently, the government is planning to publish a poverty reduction
strategy paper at the end of the year, as part of the bid to win the money.
One of its goals is to improve tax collection and control government
expenditure - leaving more money in the budget to combat poverty.
Growth targets
The country's GDP growth rates have been over 5% a year since 1999,
according to estimates.
The government is forecasting growth nearer to 6% in 2002 and 2003, but
whether it achieves this will depend upon the success of its poverty
reduction plan.
A weak administration and the threat of more political instability do not
bode well.
Presidential elections
Background
Election challenge
Who's who
Economic struggles
Country profile
Timeline
George W's visit
See also:
17 Oct 01 | From Our Own Correspondent
Gambia's election challenge
11 Oct 01 | Country profiles
Country profile: Gambia
04 Oct 01 | Africa
Violence mars Gambia campaign
21 Aug 01 | Africa
Gambia hit by pre-poll fever
23 Jul 01 | Africa
Gambia lifts ban on political parties
01 Sep 00 | Africa
Gambia gets first green light
25 Jul 01 | Africa
Timeline: Gambia
Internet links:
The official Republic of Gambia site
The Gambia on the World Bank site
The Gambia and the IMF
Some facts and figure on the Gambia
The Gambia National Tourist Office
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites
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