----- Original Message -----
From: "Joe Sambou" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Friday, October 10, 2003 6:24 PM
Subject: Foroyaa newspaper


> Foroyaa Newspaper
> Issue No. 76/2003
>
> Editorial
> Operation No Compromise
> The Facts and The Myths
> President Jammeh claims that the basic reason for the rise in the prices
of
> commodities is the speculation on the dalasi and artificial price fixing
by
> people he referred to as vampires.
> The president threatened that by last Thursday (October 2nd) he would deal
> with the problem of foreign currency.
> On Friday, the Secretary of State for Trade, Industry and Employment
> indicated that the exchange rate of the dollar had gone down. He claimed
> that this had proven the president right that speculators artificially
> create the depreciation of the value of the dalasi.
> In our view, the APRC government has a very simplistic understanding of
the
> nature of the economic problems of The Gambia. The president seems to be
> surrounded with too many informers and very few technical experts on the
> economy.
> Anybody who follows the stock markets of the world would notice that any
> incident could lead to a rise or fall of the stocks. This is due to the
fact
> that investors are human beings. They invest and take part in trade when
> they have confidence. They withdraw or hold back when they lack
confidence.
> It is clear to those who are not even economists that the demand for
foreign
> exchange and the scramble to buy and sell it is what leads to the
> depreciation of the dalasi. Those who can afford to buy it at a higher
rate
> end up dictating the exchange rate. The only way to control the
depreciation
> of the dalasi is to increase the supply of foreign exchange above the
> demand.
> President Jammeh however wishes to defy the reality and control the market
> through "operation no compromise". Now they are announcing that he is
> successful. What he has succeeded in doing is to stifle demand through
force
> by suppressing the competition for the buying and selling of foreign
> currency in the non banking market for trading in foreign currency.
> In fact, NIA officials have been posted where foreign currency used to be
> traded.
> How then can government announce that the depreciation of the dalasi has
> been halted? What could be said is that the official bank rate is reduced.
> This however has to be followed over a period to determine trends. What is
> clear is that while people can go to the banks to sell currency few can
buy
> foreign currency from the banks. Some banks are buying the dollar at 33
> dalasi while others are buying it at 36 dalasi.
> There is absolutely no doubt that if the banks cannot provide the informal
> sector with foreign exchange an underground market will grow that will
> intensify the depreciation of the dalasi. All Gambians want a strengthened
> dalasi and lower prices so that people can buy food and cement to build
> houses. However, this cannot be achieved through economic adventurism.
> Take the butchers in Brikama, for example. On Thursday, they were forced
to
> sell meat and bone at D35 and steak at D40 per kilo. The butchers claimed
> that they bought the meat at D54 per kilo. On Friday, they suspended
selling
> meat. If the government fails to do what FOROYAA suggests by stopping the
> economic adventurism and proceed to scientific study and objective action
> there will be scarcity of both foreign exchange and goods. This can lead
to
> the flight of businesses. Pretentiousness paves the way to anarchy in
> economic management.
>
>
> Letter to the President & Others
> On Waa's Remand in Custody
> Below, we publish a letter written by Halifa Sallah to the President and
the
> Secretaries of State for Justice and the Interior.
> A government without principles cannot be trusted. A government with
> principles acts without fear or favour, affection or ill will, in
accordance
> with the constitution and laws of a country.
> Mr President, a few days ago your newly appointed Secretaries of State
swore
> to carry out their duties in accordance with the constitution and other
laws
> of the country.
> Section 19 of the constitution states categorically that a person should
not
> be detained for more than 72 hours without being taken before a court. The
> leader of NDAM was arrested in connection with a newspaper article
published
> by The Independent. He was in police custody from Tuesday, September 30,
> 2003 to Friday, October 3, 2003.
> It was expected that he would be released on bail pending court action.
> Instead, he was escorted to Mile Two Prisons in gross contravention of the
> dictates of the constitution.
> A regime based on impunity would be insensitive to the dictates of the
law.
> It would seek to punish before the law takes its due course. It would pass
> judgment on individuals on the basis of perceived threats.
> A truly secure and democratic regime cannot be pushed to honour the law
with
> total disregard because of ill will. It would recognise that in the
exercise
> of authority of government one must come into contact with those who are
> opposed to one's mandate. They would try to say and do what would remove
one
> from office.
> Such people may exercise their rights to the point of being suspected of
> violating the law. If that happens, the courts should be left to determine
> whether one's actions have exceeded the bounds of what is considered
> reasonable and justifiable in a democratic society.
> The executive is too politically bias to assume the responsibility to
> determine the innocence or guilt of its opponents. If one has a fascist
> executive it could even torture and kill its opponents. This is why the
> courts are given the responsibility to determine innocence or guilt.
> When justice is allowed to take its natural course no allegation of
impunity
> will be levied on a government. I must emphasize again that no sovereign
> Gambian possesses the personal or divine power to rule the country with
> impunity. Power that is entrusted should be exercised in a just and fair
> manner in order to earn respect.
> It is hoped that this letter will alert your mind and that of the
Secretary
> of State for the Interior to exercise direction and control on how cases
are
> handled according to the dictates of law, conscience and justice.
> While anticipating a swift and just response
> I remain
> Yours in the Service of the Nation
> Halifa Sallah
> October 4th 2003
>
>
>
> Edward's Meeting With Business Community Absolves Foroyaa
>
> In an interview with Halifa Sallah on President Jammeh's remarks during
the
> swearing in of SoS Ceesay and SoS Bala Gaye, he said that there is need to
> address the economic problems of the country but that President Jammeh's
> type of economic adventurism will only make matters worse. He called for
> action to be preceded by research.
> When SoS Singhateh asked the business community to diagnose the situation,
> Hatib Janneh the proprietor of Jimpex said that the issue was too complex
to
> diagnose without setting up a committee to do a comprehensive review. SoS
> Singhateh initially said that the matter needed to be settled there and
> then. However, after a diagnosis he also concluded that a committee was
> needed to study the problem as quickly as possible.
> Even though President Jammeh claims that some of us have no credentials as
> economists, we now proceed to advance a series of articles that all his
> economic advisors will corroborate. The ultimate objective is to prove
that
> President Jammeh is on a mistaken path and the security forces have been
> misdirected to engage in an economic wreckage programme passing off as
> "Operation no Compromise." We will offer better options to economic
> adventurism.  We agree with the Inspector General of the Police that the
> matter is beyond party political consideration.
> The Key to Understanding the Gambian Economy
> First and foremost, it should be clear that the more an economy is self
> reliant, the more it produces the goods and services required by the
> population, the more it creates a balance between imports and exports, the
> more it can stabilise prices, currencies and incomes through regulations
and
> control mechanism.
> On the other hand, the more dependant an economy, the more it depends on
> others for the supply of goods and services, the greater the intolerance
> between imports and exports, revenue and expenditure, the less capable it
is
> to control, regulate and stabilise prices, currencies and income. This is
> the tragedy of the Gambian economy which became evident since 1979 when
> scarcity of foreign exchange in the formal banking system eventually led
to
> the low importation of essential commodities, scarcity of these
commodities
> and price hikes.
> As the growing trading sector competes for foreign exchange they expanded
> their sub-regional trading outlets relying on the CFA as a sub-regional
> currency, which was then pegged and supported by the French Franc on the
> basis of equal value. Instead of depending on the banking system to get
> foreign exchange the traders in the Gambia expanded their trading links in
> the sub-region and received payments in CFA.
> The lower tariffs enabled the businesses in the Gambia to provide lower
> prices to consumers in the sub-region. Smugglers under the guise of
> religious sects and other developing routes through porous borders
expanded
> the trade outlets of the country. Gambia also benefited from the economies
> of scale when groundnut prices were higher in the Gambia. Many Senegalese
> farmers in the border area would cross the frontiers and sell their nuts.
> Unable to utilise the dalasi in Senegal they often buy goods is the Gambia
> to take it to Senegal. This strengthened the Gambian currency. On the
other
> hand when the prices of the crops are better in Senegal Gambian
>            Farmers sold their crops in Senegal and brought the CFA to the
> Gambia, which they could utilise to purchase goods in the Gambia and this
> enabled the Gambian businesspersons to get foreign exchange. Hence Gambia
> was gaining from both sides. It was the Senegalese economy, which was
losing
> from both sides since purchasing was being done in the Gambia to the
> detriment of the Senegalese industries. The volume of CFA hoarded by
Gambian
> businesspersons became so much that the Senegalese regime wanted an
economic
> and monetary union to address the problem. When this could not be realised
> the Senegalese government utilised the devaluation of the CFA and border
> restrictions to contain the businesspersons in the Gambia.  These
> restrictions were short lived as Gambia started to benefit from another
> economics of scale when trouble in our sub-region and economic migration
> sent Nigerians, Ghanaians, Sierra Leoneans, Liberians, Bissau Guineans,
> Conakry Guineans and other nationalities to the Gambia. They sent CFA home
> as the dalasi also became a sub-regional currency as people accepted it in
> Nigeria, SierraLeone, etc. since they could send it to relatives in the
> Gambia. Those who migrated to the Gambia brought their skills or wealth.
> They became consumers and therefore expanded the volume of business
> transactions. The fact that Prsident Jammeh knows very little about
> economics and his economic advisers have failed to do a thorough study of
> the economic realities of the country made them to make very
unintellectual
> like remarks regarding the CFA and the presence of foreigners in the
> country. The problem of the Gambian economy is neither the CFA nor the
> foreigners. The problem is the lack of building of the economy towards
self
> reliance. We need short term measures to minimize the disequilibrium in
the
> economy and the hardship of the people. We also need long term measures to
> stabilize prices, the currency and income. Let us now proceed to examine
the
> true state of our current economic problems and then recommend the
measures
> that are necessary for any patriotic government to adopt.
>
> The True State of The Gambian Economy
>
>               The Gambian economy has ceased to depend largely on
> agriculture to enhance national income because of the failure to diversify
> and increase farmers' income to ensure greater investment. Consequently,
> agriculture contributes between 22 and 25 percent of gross domestic
product
> (GDP). Tourism contributes between 10 and 16 percent of GDP depending on
the
> reports relied on. The service sector comprises 70.6 percent of GDP. While
> the trading sector which is a component of the service sector contributes
39
> percent of GDP, industry contributes only 11 percent of GDP. The Gambian
> traders are not relying on Gambian goods to trade. They import from other
> countries and re-export what is imported to neighbouring countries. In
this
> way, they earn CFA and other foreign currencies. There is nothing wrong in
> selling and earning foreign exchange form other countries. What needs to
be
> done is to encourage a part of such earnings to be invested in the
> production of local goods and services for export and for local
consumption
> in order to reduce dependency on foreign products and generate employment.
> It is now necessary to find out what has gone wrong with our economy to
> cause the depreciation of the dalasi, price rises and reduction of income.
> See next issue for Part II.
>
> Foroyaa Newspaper
> Issue Number 77/ 2003
> 9th. October, 2003
>
> EDITORIAL
> "Operation No Compromise" breeds chaos and national discord.
> Those who govern are sitting idly by while the nation sinks into economic
> chaos.  Every poor person wants lower prices.  It is the duty of the
> government to find out why prices are high and find a solution that will
not
> lead to the scarcity of goods or conflict between consumers and market
> women.
> The President's claim that the price increases are deliberate actions to
> create economic difficulties has led to the intervention of the security
> forces and vigilante groups to force butchers, bakers and market women to
> reduce prices.  For example in Tallinding Sicap Market, a vigilante group
> appeared to tell the women that they must sell Palm Oil at D3 per cup.
The
> women claimed that they bought the barrel at 7000 Dalasis; that if they
sell
> the palm oil at D3 per cup they would end up with 3,000 dalasis plus.
This
> would make them incur a deficit of 3000 dalasis plus.  They were also
asked
> to sell oil at D2 per cup.  It is also claimed that a basket of bonga is
> bought at the price of 300 dalasis while they are now being asked to sell
> bonga at a price of one dalasi each.  The market women argued that if the
> government really wants to control prices it would have to force the
> suppliers to reduce prices and then go down to regulate it at the retail
> level.
> Butchers are being arrested throughout the country for selling meat and
bone
> above 40 Dalasis and steak at 45 Dalasis per kilo.  Many butchers complain
> that they get bulls from people and sell them to repay their loan.  It is
> now becoming clear that many butchers are middlemen who take bulls from
> people only to sell them and repay their loans.  It is very clear that
many
> small-scale enterprises are now going underground, causing poverty and
> tension to increase.
> The words of the wise say: - "If one does not know where one is going one
> should go back to where one comes from".  The Jammeh regime has lost
> direction.  It is now covering up its failures by showing the seed of
> national discord.  Foroyaa calls on the people to replace national discord
> with national dialogue.  Political Parties need to hold rallies and civil
> society organizations symposia and community meetings to explain what is
> going on in the country and map a way forward.  Gambia is too important to
> be left in the hands of those who have proven their incapacity to ensure
> liberty and prosperity to the people.  How can one promote security by
> making non-Gambians in particular and Gambians in general feel
economically
> insecure?
>
>
>
> JAMMEH TEACHING THE WRONG LESSON
> Lamin Juwara's Unlawful Detention
>
> "When a government is insecure it can be frightened by the citing of a
> 'Wolf! Wolf!' even if no wolf is forthcoming.  This is the state of the
> regime," says Halifa Sallah.  Asked about the state of Lamin Juwara,
Halifa
> said that the enforcer of the law is now proving to be a breaker of the
law.
>   He added that he has contacted the authorities to tell them that no
person
> should be detained in The Gambia for more than 72 Hours without being
taken
> before a court or granted bail.  He said that he has put it to them that,
> one cannot teach others to respect the law if the teacher is a lawbreaker.
> Halifa indicated that the order to detain Juwara is from above; that he is
> classified as a security detainee.  This means that he is not only charged
> with an offence, but has been transformed into a political prisoner.
Halifa
> argued that pressure is being intensified for the regime to respect the
law
> and release him or take him before a court.  He said that the issue is not
> about Juwara; that it is a national issue; that it is a question of
whether
> a nation would allow a head of state to behave like a monarch who can
order
> the detention of persons with impunity.
> Pointing out that the President may think that he is teaching a lesson but
> it is the wrong type of lesson, said Halifa.
> He emphasized that he has said over and over again that the President has
no
> personal divine power.  What he is teaching is that he is capable of
abusing
> the power of the people and utilizes it to make the security forces to
> behave with impunity.  The lesson he should learn is that leaders come and
> go.  They should treat others how they wish to be treated.  Juwara is a
> party leader.  He should be treated with respect, he should not be sent to
> prison by executive order.  This is tyranny, pure and simple, said Halifa.
> He called for a public outcry against the detention.
> Asked what would be done if the government fails to listen, Halifa
indicated
> that he has engaged in consultation with all the other political parties
and
> is continuing to meet religious leaders, trade unions, women
organizations,
> youth leaders and all those who are opinion leaders. In his consultations
he
> discusses the state of the country and what is necessary from both the
side
> of the parties for an alternative government and the existing regime to
> ensure peaceful coexistence of people with different political opinions
and
> affiliation and how to ensure the peaceful transfer of state authority
> should the masses wish to bring about change.  What to do would be certain
> after such consultations.
> He concluded that it is time for political parties for an alternative
> government to show that we can manage crises to earn the respect of the
> people.  "We will show that the liberty of the people is safer under our
> humble stewardship than under a regime which does not hesitate to display
> arrogance in running the affairs of the country.  We will utilize every
> wrong step of the regime to prove to the Gambian people that it is unfit
to
> govern a civilized, dignified and sovereign people.  We shall continue to
> share with the people the view that they should never despair or mystify
the
> regime. But they should never lose sight of their ownership of power.
> Instead of being frightened by the abuse of the power they put under the
> care of leaders, they should simply consider the perpetuation of the abuse
> as unfit to govern, take back their power and entrust it under the care of
> those who can be trusted to exercise it to enlarge their liberty and
> prosperity."
> Asked what he thinks of Juwara's statement, Halifa said that the interview
> is a reported one and the matter is under investigation.  He added that
> Juwara simply expressed an opinion, that he even said that other
opposition
> parties could be consulted.  He argued that this is enough to show that
the
> opinion should not be taken as a threat to state security.  Halifa said
that
> as far as he is concerned, the parties for an alternative government are
out
> to organize the people to replace the regime and would not allow
themselves
> to play a cat and mouse game with the regime through street protests.  The
> aim is to build a force, which the regime can respect and take seriously
and
> which the people can have trust and confidence in.  Halifa argued that he
> frankly does not think anybody who is bent on undermining state security
can
> be as adventurist as to declare one's intention without preparing a force
to
> act should one find himself/herself in a state of confrontation with a
> regime.  Halifa said that those who wish to subvert a regime would prepare
> themselves in secret.  He said that the count would finally decide on the
> matter.
> Halifa further observed that for a state to disregard the law and try to
> teach lessons by using might is best described as tyranny.  The alternate
> price of tyranny is the alienation of a regime and its demise.  Halifa
> cautioned the APRC regime to pay heed to what he referred to as the
> irrevocable verdict of history.
>
>
>
>
>
> PART II
> THE TRUE STATE OF THE GAMBIAN ECONOMY
> The attempt to control the depreciation of the dalasi and prices by
security
> might continues as Jammeh's "Operation No Compromise", go into full force.
> The regime has concluded that speculators cause the depreciation of the
> dalasi and it has ordered the security forces to stop the operation of the
> parallel market.  It has also concluded that prices are artificially
> inflated and it has instrumented for retailers to be forced to sell at
> prices determined by government instruction.
> Banks are selling foreign exchange to their customers and are willing to
buy
> foreign exchange from anyone.  The dollar is being sold at D32, the CFA at
> D205, and the Euro at D36.  A bag of rice is still being sold by the Youth
> Development Enterprise at D395.  The price of petrol is still nineteen 19
> dalasis per litre; gas oil is fifteen 15 dalasis and kerosene 9 dalasis,
oil
> is being sold at 6 dalasis per cup.  A bottle of soft drinks is still
seven
> 7 dalasis.  A bag of flour is still at D510, a bag of sugar is still at
> D465.  However the security forces are bent on forcing the retailers to
sell
> oil, meat, vegetables at fixed prices without controlling the wholesale
> prices.  The end result of the exercise is to make the small retailer
> bankrupt, make the big retailer to hoard goods or withhold the purchasing
of
> new goods and create artificial scarcity.  This can lead to the creation
of
> underground markets where people buy and sell foreign currencies and goods
> at higher rates.
> Foroyaa has made is clear that every Gambian is concerned with the rising
of
> prices and the depreciation of the dalasi.  The APRC government is always
> quick to accuse people of lack of patriotism for not approving its
measures.
>   Foroyaa wants to make it abundantly clear that it strongly sees the need
> to address the crisis in the commodity and money markets but has long told
> the government that such crises in the markets are a reflection of a
larger
> economic crisis, which the government has always denied.  The government's
> practices are the cause but the government is blaming those who are simply
> finding ways and means of keeping their heads above water while the others
> drown to be the cause of the drowning of the masses in a sea of  poverty.
> This is a self-righteous government, which never accepts its faults.  This
> is why it is now engaged in economic adventurism, which is going to create
> artificial scarcity of goods, economic insecurity and the deepening of the
> economic crisis.
> One may now ask: What do we need to know about the crisis of the Gambian
> economy, how is the government the main culprit and what is the way
forward?
> In part one, we have shown that the Gambian Economy is a service based
> economy with services contributing approximately 65-70% of GDP, trade is
> contributing as a component of the service sector about 40% of GDP,
> agriculture is contributing 22-25% and Industry approximately 11%.
>
> The Cause of the Depreciation of the Dalasi
> Our agricultural and industrial sectors are very low in productivity.  The
> country is exporting very little.  This is why the export earnings for
2002
> stood at 417 Million.  The country is importing most of what it is
> consuming.  In 2002, the country imported 2.9 Billion or 2900 Million
> dalasis worth of goods.  In simple economic terms our earnings from
exports
> could not pay for imports.  How then does the country earn foreign
exchange
> to pay for imports as well as to meet International Obligations?
>
> The Sources of Foreign Currencies
> Gambia earns foreign exchange from imports. Tourism also contributes its
> quota.  Of course the bulk of the foreign exchange from tourism stays with
> the tour operators who share their earnings with the airlines, etc.  The
> country benefits from the out of pocket allowances of tourists.  They have
> been relying on hotels, foreign exchange bureaus and the parallel market
to
> exchange their foreign currencies. Furthermore Gambians and non-Gambians
who
> have relatives abroad often receive foreign currencies from them.  Infact,
> with the depreciation of the dalasi many Gambians and non-Gambians have
been
> investing in real estate.  Land speculation has intensified, which is also
> accompanied by new construction schemes.  Foreign currencies are derived
> from such investments. Needless to say, Gambians are going to Angola and
> other countries in search of diamonds.  Those who succeed also make
> investments in the Gambia.  It is also clear that foreign currencies are
> derived through the free and secret movement of goods across the boarder.
> Many smugglers and businessmen do not depend on banks to get foreign
> exchange.  They simply sell goods in neighbouring countries and earn
foreign
> exchange currencies.
> Now one may ask: What gave rise to the depreciation of the Dalasi?
>
> The Depreciation of the Dalasi
> The demand for foreign currency had exceeded supply in 2002 and the
Central
> Bank had to intervene by selling foreign exchange in the inter bank market
> to enhance the availability of foreign currency.  There is increase in
> demand for foreign currency by government. In order to maintain a foreign
> reserve of 1.6 billion dalasis in 2001 and 1.7 billion in 2002  government
> has to have foreign exchange to repay its debts and meet its external
> obligations.  This is one reason why the demand for foreign exchange
exceeds
> supply.  Furthermore, the business community has been creating their own
> foreign exchange reserves to continue their trade without relying on the
> commercial banks entirely.  This has led many of them to establish foreign
> exchange bureaus or have their mobile foreign exchange dealers.  The
> scramble for foreign exchange went in the favour of the big business
persons
> who could purchase foreign exchange at higher price and sell their good at
> high prices.  It should therefore be clear that the competition for scarce
> foreign exchange is what gave rise to the purchasing of the foreign
exchange
> at a higher rate to drive competitors into bankruptcy.
> The depreciation of the dalasi also led to rise in the prices of imported
> goods such as the prices of petrol, rice, sugar, flour and other essential
> commodities.  As the prices of locally produced goods were pegged to them,
> this led to general rises in the prices of all commodities.
> How can this problem be handled?
>
> The Way Forward
> First and foremost, the government must accept its own mistakes in the
> development of the present crisis.  It should pursue means to regulate the
> economy that do not pit the people against each other.  How is this to be
> done?
> See next issue for the Conclusion.
>
> _________________________________________________________________
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