---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Fri, 26 Jan 2001 17:43:48 -0800
From: Charlotte Utting <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [wa-afr] FW: UPDATE: Africa: Policy Outlook 2001
----------
From: [log in to unmask]
Organization: Africa Policy Information Center
Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
Date: Fri, 26 Jan 2001 16:37:23 -0500
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: UPDATE: Africa: Policy Outlook 2001
ADNA Update: 012601
Message from: Africa Policy Information Center
For contact information see also:
http://www.africapolicy.org
Dear ADNA members,
Following find the Africa Policy Outlook for 2001 from the Africa
Policy Information Center. Feel free to share this with your
contacts, and with your key policymaking officials.
Regards,
Vicki Ferguson
ADNA Communications Facilitator
From: "APIC" <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Date sent: Wed, 24 Jan 2001 20:17:23 -0500
Subject: Africa: Policy Outlook 2001
Africa: Policy Outlook 2001
Date distributed (ymd): 010124
APIC Document
+++++++++++++++++++++Document
Profile+++++++++++++++++++++
Region: Continent-Wide Issue Areas: +economy/development+
+security/peace+ +political/rights+ Summary Contents: This posting
contains APIC's annual Africa policy outlook for this year, preceded
by a short note from APIC Director Salih Booker.
+++++end profile++++++++
Dear Friends
The enclosed policy outlook lays out some of the immense
challenges faced by all of us concerned about Africa's future. This
year APIC will be completing a merger with The Africa Fund and the
American Committee on Africa for greater impact on these issues.
We are very grateful to the almost 400 of you who made financial
contributions to us last year to help us continue and expand our
work. We need your continued support in the year ahead. Many of
the rest of you who receive this service tell us you value our work
greatly, but have not yet contributed. We hope that you will do so
this year. For more information, to contribute on-line or to print out a
contribution form, go to: http://www.africapolicy.org/join.htm
Salih Booker
P.S. I would also like to call your attention to the availability on-line
of the full text of the paper by Joe Collins and Bill Rau on HIV/AIDS
and Failed Development. A summary version was distributed by
APIC last year (http://www.africapolicy.org/docs00/rau0010.htm).
The full text has now been posted on the UNRISD web site in Adobe
Acrobat format
(see http://www.unrisd.org/engindex/publ/cat/publdna.htm).
--------------------------------------------------------------
Africa Policy Outlook 2001
By the end of the year 2000, a peace treaty between Ethiopia and
Eritrea, peaceful transfers of power after elections in Senegal and
Ghana, and continued growth of public debate about the future in
almost every African country were among signs of advance in a
year that was more than usually short of good news. Economic
growth in sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to climb to 2.7 percent
for the year, up from 2.1 percent in 1999. Per capita income in the
region south of the Sahara rose by an estimated two tenths of one
percent. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
announced debt reduction packages of $34 billion for 22 countries,
including 18 in Africa.
But the debt relief packages, slow in coming and even slower in
implementation, provided no sustainable exit from the continent's
overwhelming debt burden. The aggregate economic growth
increase, primarily due to rising income for oil-producing countries
and to a limited economic recovery in South Africa, was not widely
shared. The conflict zone that extended from Angola in the
southwest through the Congo to Sudan in the northeast was still a
humanitarian disaster area of enormous proportions. In December,
the Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that 28 million
Africans were at risk of severe food shortages, due both to war and
to renewed drought in eastern Africa.
HIV/AIDS
Over every other issue loomed the exponentially growing HIV/AIDS
pandemic, which cost an estimated 2.4 million African lives during
the year. The continent registered 3.8 million new infections in 2000,
a slight decrease from the 4 million in 1999. But virtually every
international agency, including the IMF and the World Bank,
acknowledged during the year that the unprecedented humanitarian
disaster - the most deadly epidemic in human history - would also
have escalating pervasive negative effects on economies and
governments.
The World AIDS conference in Durban, South Africa in July and
the African Development Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in
December were the highlights of much increased public attention to
the pandemic during the year, both globally and within Africa.
News reports stressed not only the overwhelmingly disproportionate
effect of AIDS on Africa, but also the failure of the international
community to respond with more than token action. Drug companies
were targeted by activists and exposed by the media for blocking
efforts to provide affordable treatment drugs to combat the effects of
AIDS. The 'Statement of Concern on Women and HIV/AIDS' issued
at the conference drew particular attention to the significance of
gender inequalities defined by class, generation, race, ethnicity and
political power.
An African summit meeting on the issue is scheduled for Nigeria in
April, and a special UN Assembly on HIV/AIDS for June. But
whether there is real progress during the year will depend on the
answers to practical questions such as the following:
(1) to what extent other African countries emulate Senegal and
Uganda in putting into effect comprehensive AIDS prevention
programs,
(2) whether wealthy countries and multilateral agencies come
anywhere near increasing finance on HIV/AIDS to the $3 billion a
year estimated to be needed for prevention and $4.5 billion a year
more for treatment (current funding levels are probably less than
10% of this for prevention, and almost none for treatment), and
(3) whether drug companies and the international community can be
pressured to respond to the demand to 'reduce the prices of [AIDS-
related] drugs to a level commensurate with their production costs'
(African Development Forum, AIDS Consensus and Plan,
December 2000). [Initial indications are that the Bush administration
will instead be reversing concessions on this issue made by the
Clinton administration - see (1) below.]
Debt
At year's end the debt burden also remains a pervasive obstacle to
Africa's capacity to deal with other issues, despite additional relief
won from creditors. The $34 billion package announced under the
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative included $25
billion for 18 African countries, almost half the outstanding debt
owed by those countries. Nigeria, one of the African countries not
eligible under HIPC, also gained a rescheduling package from
creditors saving it $1 billion in payments this year - on its debt of
some $30 billion. Even the HIPC relief, however, will only be
implemented over a period of years, still leaves out 15 African
countries formally included in the program, and goes with long lists
of new conditions countries must implement to get the relief. The
creditors' announcements of progress have satisfied neither debtor
countries nor activists engaged on the issue, because their
programs do not provide sustainable solutions.
While a few countries, notably Mozambique and Uganda, have
received substantial enough reductions to have a significant effect,
the issue will continue to loom large on the African agenda in 2001.
A continent-wide meeting of debt cancellation activists in Dakar in
December called not only for cancellation of illegitimate debts, but
also for reparations from rich countries for damage to Africa.
Worldwide the demand is rising for a new mechanism to deal with
the debt. Thus in September UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
called for 'immediate suspension' of all debt payments by HIPC
countries and others that should be added to the list, and for an
independent body - not controlled by creditor countries - to consider
new mechanisms to address the debt. Among other venues, the
annual G-7 meeting of rich countries in Genoa, Italy in July will be
the target of debt cancellation activists.
Economy
For 2001, international agencies rate Africa's economic prospects
as modestly better than last year. However, their forecasts stressed
that almost all African countries remained highly vulnerable to
changes in primary commodity prices. As a result, growth will be
largely concentrated in oil-producing countries, which are expected
to benefit from high prices through 2002. But export prices of most
primary commodities, such as coffee and other agricultural
products, are expected to remain depressed.
The debate over economic policies will continue in the coming year,
as the World Bank and its allies continue to preach the virtues of
market openness and critics denounce the lack of structural change
that could lead to sustainable human development on the continent.
The creditors' 'Washington Consensus' on economic policy is now
generally accompanied by an expressed commitment to poverty
reduction as well as growth. Some measures - such as demanding
greater efficiency and anti-corruption measures from African
governments - win support across the political spectrum. But
African civil society is strongly critical of the standard packages
imposed by creditors, even when the label is changed from
'structural adjustment' to 'poverty reduction.' Other observers note
that even when particular measures are justified, imposing them
from outside without democratic consent runs a high risk of
counterproductive micro-management.
The World Bank, as well as developing countries, now regularly
stresses that high trade barriers by rich countries hurt developing
countries. So far, however, measures to reduce these barriers,
whether the U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act passed last
year, or the current 'Everything but Arms' initiative now being
debated by the European Union, seem to offer more than they
deliver. 2001 will be a critical year to see whether such initiatives
deliver more than token benefits to a few African countries.
Conflict Zones
Ongoing open warfare in Africa showed pronounced differences
between regions in 2000, as in the previous year, although the
effects impacted the entire continent. Fragile cease-fires punctuated
by episodes of violence, rather than open war, prevailed in earlier
conflict zones in West Africa. A peace treaty between Ethiopia and
Eritrea was finally signed at the end of the year, and deployment of
UN observers began. As in 1999, the largest interlinked set of
unresolved conflicts included Angola in west central Africa; the
Democratic Republic of the Congo in the heart of the continent,
Burundi and Rwanda in the Great Lakes region, tieing in not only to
eastern Congo but also to Uganda and to Sudan; and the perennial
war in Sudan itself.
The death of Congolese President Laurent Kabila in January
removed one of the most stubborn blocks to implementation of a
peace settlement in that country. However, the odds against
significant advance towards peace remained high, unless both
Congo's neighbors involved in the war and the international
community more broadly engage actively in much more serious
efforts to reconcile their own interests as well as to engage
Congolese civil society and provide support for Congolese efforts to
establish a government representative of their interests.
In other conflicts, the use of natural resources to buy weapons will
continue on the agenda in 2001. Year-end reports on conflict in
Angola and Sierra Leone pinpointed the role of the exchange of
diamonds for weapons. It was unclear, however, how far talk about
'conflict diamonds' would go towards more effective measures for
implementing sanctions to reduce the flow of arms in Angola, Sierra
Leone and neighboring countries. Moreover, the peace plans in
both these countries remain unimplemented. In Sudan, increased oil
revenues to the Sudanese regime - now providing 20 percent of the
government budget - have further reduced the chances for steps
towards peace. International condemnation of the regime and of the
Canadian oil company Talisman, the lead producer, will likely
continue to grow during the year.
Democracy and Human Rights
For the coming year, as in other recent years, the prospects for
further democratization of African countries present a very mixed
picture. While the majority of African countries claim legitimacy as a
result of competitive elections, and independent press and civil
society organizations in most countries continue to advance, the
opportunities for participation and free expression continue to be
widely limited by entrenched hierarchical and repressive structures.
In several countries, notably Cote d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe, the failure
to advance further with democratic change may prove the catalyst
for further civil strife.
Elections in Senegal in March, Mauritius in September, and Ghana
in December each resulted in peaceful transfers of power. In Cote
d'Ivoire, a popular revolt ousted army leader General Guei, but
neither the Presidential elections which precipitated the ouster nor
subsequent parliamentary elections, boycotted by a major
opposition party because of the exclusion of their leading
candidates, seemed likely to lead to stability in the coming year. In
Zimbabwe the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
won 57 of 120 contested seats (30 are appointed by government)
against President Robert Mugabe's incumbent ZANU (PF), bringing
a strong opposition voice to Parliament. The multi-faceted conflict
over economic decline, involvement in the war in the Congo,
unresolved land reform issues, and human rights abuses by the
Mugabe government will continue in 2001 to be a threat to southern
African stability.
Elsewhere, two key African countries seen as hopeful by many
faced significant challenges in the coming year. In Mozambique, a
widely cited model for post-conflict democratic reconciliation, the
assassination of investigative journalist Carlos Cardoso and the
death of 80 prisoners by suffocation in northern Mozambique raised
questions about the will of the government to maintain accountability
and preserve peace. And giant Nigeria managed another year of
civilian rule but fundamental issues still remained unaddressed,
including regional and ethnic inequalities, and in particular the fair
distribution of oil wealth. And in Africa's other 'giant,' South Africa,
the lines are being sharply drawn over government economic policy
and its response to the AIDS pandemic.
-----
(1) Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report http://report.kff.org/hivaids
1/23/2001 Bush Reviewing Executive Order Allowing International
Importation of Generic HIV/AIDS Drugs President Bush may reverse
former President Clinton's executive order that allows sub-Saharan
African governments to import generic versions of HIV/AIDS
medications from other countries where the drugs are manufactured
while still under U.S. patent, Bloomberg News/Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette reports.
************************************************************
This material is produced and distributed by the
Africa Policy Information Center (APIC).APIC provides
accessible information and analysis in order to promote U.S.
and international policies toward Africa that advance economic,
political and social justice and the full spectrum of human
rights.
Documents previously distributed, as well as a wide range of
additional information, are also available on the Web at:
http://www.africapolicy.org
To be added to or dropped from the APIC distribution list write to
[log in to unmask]
Africa Policy Information Center,
110 Maryland Ave. NE, #509, Washington, DC 20002.
Phone: 202-546-7961. Fax: 202-546-1545.
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
************************************************************
This message from the Africa Policy Information Center is
distribuuted through the Advocacy Network for Africa (ADNA).
Our next meeting is Wednesday, Jan 31, Garfield Comm Ctr, E Cherry and 23rd, Seattle
7:00 PM WSAN business meeting
8:00 PM Program: Pan-African and International Conference for the Cancellation of the African
and Third World Debt/Jubilee South
We usually meet the last Wednesday of the month. To post a message: [log in to unmask] To subscribe sending a blank message to [log in to unmask] To unsubscribe send a blank message to [log in to unmask] For complete information on the Washington State Africa Network visit: www.ibike.org/africamatters
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L
Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html
You may also send subscription requests to [log in to unmask]
if you have problems accessing the web interface and remember to write your full name and e-mail address.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
