Hi theif theif bare in mind Dr Saine NEVER STOLE A SINGLE DIME FROM THE POOR GAMBIAN FARMERS, YOU DID THEIF.

Mbye Sey

Ebou Jallow <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
I would suggest a thought experiment for the uncritical ditto-heads: Blindfold yourself and spin a globe and pick any sub-saharan country at random and I shall convince you with vital statistics demonstrating "massive poverty, mismanagement, and abuse". Dr. Spin lived outside Gambia for the most part of his life, and I doubt whether he has ever casted a single vote in any elections in the Gambia. His so called 'research on Gambian politics' is nothing but low grade political journalism concocted to survive the "publish or perish" rule in US academia. Prior to his new found passion for demonizing the "military boys" in academic journals, Dr. Spinning Doom has been occupied for years serenading Dawda Jawara in anticipation of the latter's patronage.

Now what is Doctor Doom's metrics for the gravamen of 'authoritarianism', 'national-security state', 'leadership paranoia' and 'Gambia's crisis of unprecedented proportions"...? Nothing. Nothing but empty formalism, a passionate envy with an attitude that is constantly groping for reasons within the dark alleys of the malcontent, desparate and dysfunctional. Even the "authoritative research" he cited to support his preposterous claims has been disgracefully embellished- The Gambia is far from being a "failed state" at an ordinal rank of 60 short of the 76th state with the least probability of turning into a rogue state. The Fund for Peace's report is NOT exhaustive but simply attempts to illustrate patterns which are inherent in almost all countries on this planet. It really does not do justice to a relatively stable Gambia which is surrounded by a country rife with political violence and a simmering secession.

Finally, the Gambia is not at a cross-road but on a journey of success towards a 2020 vision which is perhaps Dr. Doom's worst nightmare and his marginal group of desparate and dysfunctional ditto-heads.

Areos,

Ebou Jallow

_______________________________________________________________________

"Dr. Abdoulaye Saine" wrote:


[ This e-mail is posted to Gambia|Post e-Gathering by Dr. Abdoulaye Saine ]



The National-Security Crisis in The Gambia and the Impending 2006
Presidential Elections

By Dr. Abdoulaye Saine

Ladies and Gentlemen:

The forthcoming 2006 presidential elections in The Gambia is a defining
event in our nation’s history. Clearly, it is one of the single most
significant political events since independence in 1965, and certainly the
most important election since the coup d’etat of 1994. The reasons are
several: First, the 2006 presidential election is occurring at a time
when the choice before Gambians is between continued insecurity and
further decline into the abyss of deepening poverty and gross human rights
abuses or a more peaceful and democratic future under a NADD leadership.
Second, the 2006 presidential elections, on one hand, provide Gambians a
clear choice between a regime that has by most empirical measures failed,
and the promise of a new democratic political culture under a NADD
leadership, on the other.

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that our homeland is today teetering
on collapse and has all the ingredients in place for internal political
strife, violence and anarchy. In sum, the importance of The Gambia’s 2006
presidential balloting lies in its potential to circumvent the looming but
real prospect of national disintegration and turn the country in a more
peaceful direction. In other words, The Gambia’s growing national-security
deficit has plunged it into a precarious direction that could result in
bloodshed.

Eleven years after the July 1994 coup, The Gambia under Jammeh is trapped
in a vicious cycle of growing authoritarianism and harrowing poverty. The
state has, for all intents and purposes “failed” and unable to deliver
basic social services, justice and/ or security protections for citizens.
In fact, the first annual report on the list of potential “failed states”
research conducted by the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy listed The
Gambia as a potential candidate among 60 nations on the brink of collapse.
Ivory Cost made the top of the list and The Gambia the last spot at 60.
Several African countries including DRC, Guinea, Sudan, Sierra Leone,
Liberia, Somalia, and Chad also made the top ten.

A “national-security state,” leadership paranoia and intransigence have
intensified the current security-deficit of growing militarization and
gun-culture in our homeland. The continuing presence of military decrees
and bans to limit civilian participation in government has compromised
what little democratic pretensions and human rights promises Jammeh and
his government(s) made to Gambians following the coup. Without doubt,
under Jammeh’s tenure security at all levels has been compromised.

Little wonder extra-judicial killings of civilians are on the rise with no
one brought to justice for such horrific crimes. Ironically, Jammeh’s
control of the state-security apparatus has not made him nor the country
and its civilian population any more secure. Jammeh perceives threats and
dangers everywhere, which leaves him paranoid and erratic. He has been
known to invent conspiracies, counter-coups and hoax military attacks,
which he then uses to eliminate political enemies. Accordingly, The
Gambia’s security and human rights deficit together with a poor governance
framework have plunged the economy into a crisis of unprecedented
proportions.

Under pressure from the IMF, and World Bank, Jammeh has now promised to
root out corruption through his highly publicized-“Operation No
Compromise.” At its best, “Operation No Compromise” is a lack-luster
effort to salvage an already decaying economy and a tainted image of
Jammeh himself. At worse, it is a cruel hoax that, in the end, does not
deliver but scapegoats the most vulnerable- the poor, retail traders and
his political enemies. Poor economic performance coupled with a
combination of related factors that include: low agricultural
productivity, mismanagement, over-borrowing and spending, a weak currency,
rampant inflation, a rising external debt, and endemic corruption, are
largely to responsible for the current economic crisis.

Jammeh, therefore, presides over an economy that has failed. It was
apparent in 2001 and perhaps as early as 1997 that the Gambian economy was
in shambles. Unpredictable policy decisions and weak state capacity
negatively impacted economic performance and in the end, precipitated an
economic crisis never seen before in The Gambia. Increasingly, some
critics express, with growing boldness, deep remorse over the country’s
economy and decay in physical infrastructure. They lament the decline in
moral standards seen in rising greed, criminality and corruption that the
regime seems to have exacerbated.

In the end, Jammeh’s policies have succeeded in undermining the very
principles upon which his neo-liberal economic strategy- “Vision 2020”
rested, and in doing so, jeopardized the short-term economic recovery and
future economic prospects of the Gambian economy. Today, over 65 per cent
of the population lives at the cusp of hunger and starvation. The lack of
access to basic water and electricity supplies are now more the norm and
some communities go for months without both. This has meant suffering and
deepening poverty for the bulk of the rural and urban poor. Despite
construction of several new high and middle schools, large rural hospitals
and the construction of a new television station and university, which are
clearly welcome developments, Gambians are worse of economically today
than they were in 1993.

Today, a combination of both active and “retired” military officers, some
unscrupulous civil-servants and business-persons and torn-coat
“intellectuals” now constitute a new social “class” that has bankrupted
the country while the poor go hungry daily. Therefore, Gambians are today
witnessing and victims of unprecedented human rights violations and a
country teetering on economic collapse and national disintegration similar
to what occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone.


Another continuing challenge to The Gambia’s national-security is the
“culture of impunity” and the “culture of silence” in which
government-security agents and quasi-government groups take the law into
their hands with official sanction or silence. The cultures of impunity
and of silence are pervasive, in part because the citizenry accept
government atrocities as a matter of life. A conservative political
culture mixed with fatalistic tendencies deriving partly from conservative
Sunni Islam, have conspired to ensure citizen compliance. Thus, a façade
of peace prevails, which the population appears to cherish rather than
challenge. In doing so, maintaining “peace” is used as ideological
ammunition by a repressive regime to quell dissent even though both
state-sponsored abuse and citizen insecurity are on the increase.

Ultimately though, the greatest threat to The Gambia’s national-security
lies within the army itself. Internal factionalism, poor discipline and
training, and growing discontent within it could result in overt and
deadly conflicts. These conflicts are then likely to spill-over into
society and could lead to national disintegration. Add to this the
brewing tensions between a growing refuge and immigrant population, on one
hand, and an underclass urban Gambian youth population, on the other.
These growing tensions could erupt in political violence. And precisely
because of the absence of government and societal governance institutions
and mechanism to curb these tensions, a failed state syndrome now exists
in The Gambia which could push it over the precipice.

In sum, under Jammeh’s leadership there is what I term a “triple crisis”
of governance. The first is the lack of accountability and the rule of
law as evidenced in pervasive corruption, criminal violence, and
personalization of power and human rights abuses. The second crisis is
economic. It stems in part from a failure to implement prudent economic
policies. The third crisis can be seen in the deteriorating living
conditions and well-being for the bulk of Gambians. These crises
constitute a serious national-security deficit. They are the net effect
of eleven years of military and quasi-military misrule and all directly
impact national and personal security immensely. It is these
characteristics that precisely define a failed state syndrome. Together,
they constitute the greatest challenge to The Gambia’s continued existence
as a country.

Therefore, good leadership in conjunction with a sound governance policy
framework are essential ingredients to maintaining national-security and
building a democracy. This is more the reason why we should do all we can
to ensure NADD’s victory in 2006. Because in the end, the nature and
quality of governance under a NADD leadership and the types of policies it
chooses, will be important in shaping the security apparatus and the
economy.


The formation of NADD in January 2005 as well as growing international and
domestic pressures on Jammeh bode well for the future of democracy and
security in The Gambia. Yet, a lot remains to be done before the 2006
presidential elections. In addition to the issue of a standard-bearer, a
level playing field must be put in place as well as new registration of
voters. Additionally, a non-partisan and reconfigured IEC to allow for
NADD representation, media access for NADD, franchise for Gambians living
abroad, the presence of international observers and most importantly,
financial support from the Diaspora could make all the difference in 2006.

Furthermore, the AU must be dissuaded from holding its summit in The
Gambia in 2006, shortly before the elections. Otherwise, this would be
sending the wrong signals and constitutes tacit approval of Jammeh’s
abysmal human rights record. Accordingly, intense international pressure
from the Commonwealth, Britain, the EU, Japan and the US must be focused
on the AU to cancel its planned summit. These development partners,
together with NADD, Senegal and Nigeria must also insist on free and fair
elections in 2006 without violence and intimidation. The continuing
presence of extremely punitive Media laws, removal from the national
assembly of four national assembly members and what many believe to be the
politically motivated assassination of Deyda Hydara may signal a more
repressive and violent future heading into the 2006 presidential
elections.

While all hope is not lost in returning The Gambia to the functioning
democracy which it once was, there are indeed troubling dark clouds on the
horizon with potential negative effects. The 2006 Presidential elections
and a NADD victory are crucial in averting the looming but real threat to
The Gambia. Free and fair elections, ladies and gentlemen, offer us the
best hope for peaceful change in The Gambia, the alternative could spell
disaster. As the saying goes, “if you make peaceful change impossible,
you make violent change inevitable.”

In conclusion, I wish to commend STGDP-Minnesota for this wonderful
contribution and their productive collaboration with STGDP-Atlanta. I
encourage all NADD and other Gambian Organizations in the US and Europe
to strengthen contacts with each other, work together more to harmonize
fundraising and other activities. Because in STGDP we have what may, in
fact, be the makings of an international Gambian Organization that would
give Diaspora Gambians considerable political and economic leverage.

Thank you!













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