Hamjatta, you may be right by saying there is an impending economic
disaster, but you lack understanding as to what is happening, even if it
were the case that Darbo was in power I honestly doubt if the presentation
and the conclusions would have been any  different as Fams. After all the
issues dealt with by Mr Famara Jatta are inherent in the capitalist mode of
operation. Cyclical recession are part of the reality of any Capitalist mode
of operation, you may wonder whty?

To arrest such an impending economic reality is impossible under this
system. It can only be dealt with under a socialist revolutionary approach.
For socialists economic development, a revolutionary planning approach is
imperative, free from the unprincipled pursuit of commercial or mercantilist
goals. The revolutionary approach places humanbeings at the centre of
planning objectives, and not cold economic abstractions such as th annual
national produce, national income, per capita income, etc, figures which are
really pointers to assessing results rather than the ultimate objective of
planning.

The prerequisite for successful economic planning is to understand in the
first place that planning is a political action first of all, and not
economic.  A socialist planner plans for freedom; he makes a conscious
effort to liberate the economy from the realm of necessity to the realm of
freedom.  Political leaders must have no illusions about the political
nature of these objective; and they must articulate them to the masses.  But
to bourgeois economists, to assert this is to introduce into planning 'value
judgements' which do not form part of their economic terms of  reference.
An economist, in their view, is apolitical.  He is strictly a technical tool
for whoever rules the country.  Tweedledee of Tweedledum.  For these
economists there is a dividing line between politics and economics, and the
two should never  be mixed up, otherwise there will be chaos.  Accourding to
this view an economy has its own dynamism, and, given certain conditions, it
will be have in a preditable manner.  If anything  goes wrong,it is because
certain rules havae not been observed correctly or strictly enough.

For a socialist economist this approach is 'economism', and it is not only
theoretically faulty but in the long run dangerous.  A socialist economist
is not only a techniciaan; he is also politically motivated, not to serve
one party or another, a civilian or a military regime,but to serve socialism
and to serve the oppressed in the transition to socialism.  He is unsuited
to serve any other kind of regime.  This is because he begins from a premise
which is fundamentally political-freedom.  The objective of a plnned economy
is freedom: to facilitate and hasten the move from the realm of necessity to
the realm of freedon.  Ever since we parted company with our cousins in the
animal kingdom, ever since we made our first fire, we have been freeing
ourselves step by step from the realm of necessity.  The journey has been
haphazard, with the class struggle as its main feature.  Only now, in the
epoch of socialism, is a conscious journey made possible through planning.

What is planning for freedom?  Freedom has three aspects: (a) freedom from
natural fetters; (b) freedom from the constraints imposed by man; and (c)
freedom to exercise one's essential powers.  All those aspects are
interrelated.  As man continues to develop the productive forces, he
getsfurther away from the bondage of nature; but as long as property
relations are governed by the private appropriation of socially produced
wealth man remains in man-made bondage.  Under this condition man is obliged
to sell his labour as a commodidty in order to subsist; and to that extent
he cannot exrcise his third freedom, the freedom to exercise his essential
power in productive labour.  The journey to freedom, then, must begin by
changing the relations of production, so that the wealth that is being
socially produced is socially controlled, a precondition to real human
freedom in all its three aspects.

Socialist planning must ensure that(a)the productive forces are rapidly
developed to hasten man's liberation from natural mecessity; (b)the social
relations of production are radicall altered, to realize social control of
socially produced wealth; and (c)a steady increase in the well-being of the
working people through an increased supply of consumer goods takes place,
followed by a steadty lowering of their prices and a steady increase of
wages and agricultural income so that each year the masses see for
themselves that they are better off than they were the preceding year.

In the neo-colonies, however, the problem is rather more complex.  The
question which always confronts neo-colonies which want to extricate
themselves from the clutches of the imperialists is:  where do we get the
capital and expertise essential for a genuinely independent and self-reliant
economy?  This is a valid and serious question and it will be worth our
while to discuss it in greater detail.



>From: Hamjatta Kanteh <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: The Inevitable Economic Disaster Of Another Jammeh Presidency
>Date: Thu, 6 Sep 2001 13:57:10 EDT
>
>Impending or be it inevitable economic disasters like all human-associated
>calamities, have a subtle way of announcing their imminent arrival - be it
>to
>the liking or disliking of those it will affect. Nay, oft times, the
>imminence of such calamities are not subtle; but they are a
>matter-of-factness as facts can be. In effect, and in lieu of the aforesaid
>truism, with some impending disasters, we've always seen the writings on
>the
>wall but for some reason or the other, we refuse to circumvent such
>impending
>calamities either because we figured the problem that seemed to be the bane
>of the difficulties will correct itself in the long term or simply the
>problem is a problem because doom-sayers, cynics and alarmists say so;
>i.e.,
>the problem is nothing but a figment of their over-worked imaginations.
>
>A feisty conservative believer in historical inevitability - or a
>historical
>inevitabilist, as Karl Popper would call them - once told me that every
>impending life event comes with a harbinger: from environmental disasters
>like El Nino to economic ones like the Great Depression, the signs were
>there
>- albeit in encrypted codes - for the wise and profound to read. In an act
>of
>whimsical flippancy, she added that even if a bath is impending for an
>individual, we can tell; for one such sign is that that individual is dirty
>and so it follows from the logical progression of this case, the individual
>must have a bath. Never mind the simplistic logical progressions inherent
>in
>her overall argument. Of course, there are inevitable things in life -
>death
>being the most obvious of them. Save in instances where one is diagnosed as
>terminally ill with, say, cancer, i.e., one's imminent death is
>scientifically pronounced as a soon-to-be eventuality, can we generally
>read
>the sign boards that lead to one's death-bed?  The point being that to what
>extent can we read signs of things to come? Is this a credible and
>reputable
>thing to do? Needless to say that there is now a vast array of
>pseudo-sciences that employ such historical inevitability language to sell
>the idea of reading into the-yet-to-become future. This professed desire to
>read the supposed road maps that signally identify the-yet-to-be future,
>admittedly, is not all pseudo-science; the economics profession tend to
>cautiously use data - treading very carefully - to offer or suggest
>insights
>into the-yet-to-be future; and, of course, adding a very familiar caveat:
>all
>such predictions are conditional that otherthings remain equal or ceteris
>paribus.
>
>My own convictions have little or no truck with such philosophical
>alignments
>of historical inevitability and lurches moderately closer to cautiousness
>of
>the economics profession's tendency to proffer conditional insights into
>the
>future. I happen to believe, like Shakespeare seemed to me to suggest, that
>men are sometimes masters of their own destiny and things sometimes only
>become historically inevitable if men choose not act upon them to
>circumvent
>impending disasters. Sometimes our inability or inaction to circumvent
>situations or problems that present themselves as harbingers of impending
>disasters is what make them historically inevitable. I wax philosophical to
>properly introduce the philosophical difficulties associated with my essay
>which treats a yet-to-be-declared future and assemble the delineated
>philosophical rationale for justificationist purposes.
>
>When Jammeh foisted his own brand of Peter Pan economics on the Gambia
>since
>he illegally usurped power from a democratically elected government in
>1994,
>few doubted the economic malaise and suffering his ill-thought out
>"policies"
>would help unleash on the Gambian poor. By Peter Pan economics, i refer it
>to
>mean the view that the political economy of a government in a polity is to
>tax, borrow and spend irresponsibly. More like slash-and-burn agriculture;
>only difference is that with Peter Pan economics, the slashing and burning
>are not only literal and figurative but also consequential. Today, Gambians
>are 9% poorer under the watch of the AFPRC/APRC than they were under the
>previous PPP government. This is a fact even the APRC government doesn't
>deny. What makes matters worst, is the fact that there are no clever policy
>initiatives and or drives that can genuinely ameliorate the increasing
>legion
>of Gambian poor. The regime's "policies" are devoid of direction, coherence
>and worst, consequentially designed to reduce the Gambian poor to the
>ever-increasing slum poverty that permeates both the Gambia's rural and
>urban
>settings. Today, whereas in the past Gambians could afford or struggle to
>afford three square meals a day, this is simply not the case any more. At
>any
>rate, today the average Gambian struggles to have a decent two sqaure meals
>a
>day. Without any fear of exaggeration, it is fair to say that today poverty
>has spiralled out of control as both the urban and rural poor see their
>economic fortunes take a disastrous nose-dive: self-employed farmers cannot
>sell their yields on time and they are owed large sums of money by State
>sanctioned corrupt trading monopolies whilst the urban areas are a tragic
>wreckage of neglect, long-term unemployment, youth restlessness and all
>those
>assorted typical themes of urban deprivation. Even those rich businesses or
>commercial retailers and wholesalers that once upon a time make places like
>Leman, Wellington, Anglesea and the Albert Market environs the hub of
>regional entreport economic activities, has and continues to see its core
>economic pursuits decimated by the Peter Pan "policies" of the APRC regime.
>Tourism has not been spared: that sector is in dire straits as other
>non-existent sectors like manufacturing and industry continue to register
>negligible gains - if one may call them that given the unharnessed
>potentials
>of these sectors.
>
>That is not the end of the story. If we for a second believe that this is
>the
>end of the story or things are beginning to make positive renewal, then
>we've
>misunderstood the extent of the economic malaise Jammeh has helped wrought
>on
>poor and rich Gambians alike.The economic situation in the Gambia has
>become
>so dire that another Jammeh presidency can only signal inevitable economic
>disaster for the Gambia and the Gambian peoples. Take for instance the
>extended family network - which is/was Africa's variation of the Welfare
>State or a social safety-net for the vulnerable. A recent visitor to the
>Gambia put it to me that the extended family network as a source of social
>safety-net and economic amelioration for the poor, vulnerable and
>underprivileged, is now being rendered obsolete by Jammeh's summary
>dismissal
>of seasoned civil servants - who happen to be the sole bread-winners of
>extended families - and the telling effects of the Gambia's shrinking
>economy
>continues to negatively bear upon the overall social fabric of the Gambian
>society. It is fair to say that with Jammeh's Peter Pan economics, the
>extended family network as a  source of social safety-net and economic
>amelioration for the Gambia's vulnerable is getting increasingly decimated
>and on the wane. With the Gambia's current unsustainable and increasingly
>worrying economic, political and social milieu, the question becomes
>relevant: whither the poor, the destitute and vulnerable in today's Gambia?
>Alas, the answers are not to be found with this APRC regime, with its
>disastrous economic record; and which most certainly remains responsible
>for
>the current economic mess.
>
>The general economic mood of the Gambia as things stand, is one epitomised
>by
>the basic ingredients of an economy wobbly hanging on the slopes of a
>freefall. All the themes of a wobbly economy teetering on a profound crisis
>have manifestly identified themselves from 1994 to date. From fiscal and
>monetary imprudency to spiralling inflationary upsurges to an almost
>non-existent macro-economic framework to withstand the economic freefall
>the
>Gambian economy seemed damned to by the APRC regime. This bleak and damning
>economic portraiture then is the economic legacy of the APRC regime - as
>things stand. Or so we think. But already - as with everything with the
>current state of the APRC - the panic buttons are being frantically
>punched.
>When the Alliance in a recent rally warned of the prospects of another
>Jammeh
>presidency and the repercussions it will have on the ailing Gambian
>economy,
>the APRC felt the need to refute any such claims the Gambian economy is in
>a
>very poor shape. Not renown for his eloquence and or insights in economics,
>SOS Famara Jaata issued the usual pathetic denial to an ignorant "Daily
>Observer" reporter with no inkling about the nonsense he was helping to
>peddle to the general public. Let us revisit the most appropriate segment
>of
>Jaata's interview with the "Daily Observer" where he dishonestly informed
>us
>that all is well with the Gambian economy:
>
>"I am sorry if they blame the government for that but I think one has to be
>realistic - Our programme has been commended by the IMF and World Bank. I
>think we are on target with all our programmes and if these international
>institutions are saying that the government has done well in terms of
>reducing inflation, having adequate reserve, having a good macro-economic
>framework and also doing most of the structural benchmarks we've met, the
>whole world will say you are running good."
>
>Anyone conversant with the current state of the Gambian economy will look
>askance at Jaata's disingenuous and manifestly disreputable statement that
>the APRC gov't is on target with all its programmes. SOS Jaata's statement
>that the Gambian economy is on course to make gains vis-a-vis the stated
>economic programmes of his gov't is nothing but a total fabrication and a
>very misleading statement on the current state of the Gambian economy.
>Before
>i debunk his lies with the true figues, i would like to state -
>judiciously,
>if you like - what has always been whispered in certain quarters of
>international financial institutions about economic figures from the
>Central
>Bank of the Gambia [CBG] from 1994 to date. Not known for their honesty,
>the
>AFPRC/APRC has always been suspected of fraudulently manipulating economic
>data and key international institutions have since 1994 raised eye brows at
>figues supplied by the CBG. Perhaps Jaata's current mendacity vis-a-vis his
>statement that all is well with the Gambian economy should be a pointer to
>the truism inherent in questioning any data emanating from an APRC
>controlled
>and manipulated CBG. Let the APRC gov't be warned that questions are really
>being raised in certain international financial quarters as to the veracity
>of their economic figures.
>
>Now back to the veracity of Jaata's contention that the APRC gov't is on
>target with all its programmes. Where to begin? Let me simply begin by
>bayonetting to death Jaata's contention that the Fund and the World Bank
>are
>happy with the performance of the Gambian economy with the incontrovertible
>facts and nothing but the facts. Current data from key lending and donor
>institutions make a complete sham of Jaata's spurrious and wild horse claim
>that they are on target with all their programmes. For instance, fiscal
>deficit is on its way to surging to 4.4% of GDP from the original target of
>2.5%; which in essence represents a 1.2% increase on top of the targeted
>2.5%. Revenue performance, unsurprisingly, continues to dwindle year in
>year
>out as the volume of international trade continues to shrink. From a
>targeted
>D654.4 million revenue performance in the first half of 2001 actualised
>only
>D500.7 million; representing a 23.7% below target performance. Most
>worrying,
>is the deplorable state of the Gambia's volume of international and how it
>undermined significantly the gov't's revenue targets. From a target of
>D374.9, revenues collected on international trade only actualised D252.6:
>representing the gov't's worst revenue performance; a sharp fall of 32%
>below
>target. Heretofore, the gov't's greatest worry used to be how servicing its
>external debts was petering out foreign reserve and cash and undermining
>investment. Today, the story has but changed slightly with the twinning of
>domestic and external debt servicing vying for the attention of the meagre
>resources of the country. Now the biggest obstacle to fiscal discipline
>seems
>to be coming from a spiralling domestic debt servicing and its concomitant
>interest payments which makes the current overall debt portfolio
>unsustainable. From D102.7 million in 2000, interest payments on domestic
>debts soared by 8% to D112.3 million. Some economy in some good shape, huh?
>
>When an economically irresponsible gov't loses the plot completely, it
>resorts to pointing fingers at those at the receiving end of their
>irresponsibility. Suddenly, the price hikes and the economically disastrous
>Consumer Price Index of the Gambia is the fault of poor taxi drivers and
>the
>poor peoples of the Gambia who continue to bankroll the profligate
>life-styles of the APRC elites. Without a shred of decency and callousness
>galore, SOS Jaata in his interview with the "Daily Observer" intimated to
>the
>naive "Daily Observer" reporter that:
>
>"... government hoped to engage these commercial drivers in dialogue
>whenever the world market pronounces a decline in fuel price. In the event
>the commercial vehicle drivers insist on maintaining fares at the current
>level, government would come up with tax strategies but expressed the hope
>that such a situation would not arise. He said when he assumed office as
>finance secretary a year later, government reduced the prices of gas oil
>and
>petrol yet drivers did not bring down fares consequently."
>
>Maybe if Jaata were an honest bloke he would have informed the "Daily
>Observer" reporter how much tax he has slapped on gas oil and petrol since
>he
>became SOS for Finance to date. Since he didn't have the decency to inform
>Gambians, let me do the decent thing and inform everyone that current tax
>for
>both gas and super oil was 53% and 58% respectively in 1999-2000 fiscal
>year.
>It stands to reason that Jaata may have increased the said tax again for
>the
>2000-2001 fiscal year. Now, would Jaata do the decent thing and tell poor
>Gambians that his absurd and graft-designed tax hikes are partly
>responsible
>for the current price hikes in every basic commodity? I'm not holding my
>breath.
>
>As i philosophically delineated in my introduction, human disasters - be it
>economic or environment ones - have their own lines of communications and
>it
>is left to us decode the codes they come encrypted in. With Jammeh and
>another five years of his maladministration, the codes foretell an
>inevitable
>economic disaster. The current malignant economic tumour in the brain of
>the
>Gambian economy - i choreographed at lenght in this essay - can only
>foretell
>an inevitable economic disaster for Gambians - should they allow Jammeh's
>Peter Pan economics to reign for another 5 years. I dare say the economic
>disaster may have already started.
>
>Hamjatta Kanteh
>
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