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 -->For Iraq, talk is the only way
Can things get worse in Iraq? Let us first remind ourselves how bad things are. Violence on a level that few in Europe can imagine is the norm. Two hundred members of the new Iraqi police service and army are killed each month, and roughly 60 US soldiers. Civilian casualties are higher, and the website iraqbodycount.net puts the death toll since the invasion at between 23,589 and 26,705. Much of the centre of the country is, in effect, lawless, and reconstruction proceeds at a feeble fraction of the pace envisaged when Saddam Hussein fell. Perhaps most worrying in the long term, Iraq has become a hothouse for precisely the kind of violent extremism that the "war on terror" was supposed to extinguish. Can it get worse? Yes, and it may be about to, because the political process that offers the only alternative to violence is entering a dangerous and possibly terminal phase.

The business of creating a constitution for the new Iraq has not made good television, nor has it been the stuff of double-page spreads in the Sunday papers. Moreover, among those who, along with the New Statesman, opposed the invasion in 2003, it has sometimes been wilfully ignored, its difficulties dismissed with an unworthy "I told you so". But however unglamorous and imperfect it may be, however much we may feel that if we wanted to get there we wouldn't be starting from here, and however gloomy the outlook, we have a compelling interest in its ultimate success.

If it has achieved nothing else, the drafting committee in Baghdad has at least defined with great clarity the coun- try's problem. Three communities - Sunni, Kurd and Shia - make up Iraq, and their interests and aspirations conflict. If Iraq as a unit is to survive, they need to find consensus on how they might coexist, giving priority to what they have in common and finding compromises on the matters that divide them. This challenge is not new: it was identified and discussed before the troops went in. Indeed, it has been the Iraqi dilemma since Britain lumped the three parts together in the 1920s.

To British eyes, all this is familiar, and - at least from the perspective of summer 2005 - our experience might give grounds for hope. Much has been and will be written about the lessons of the Northern Ireland peace process, but one or two points relevant to Iraq seem beyond dispute. The first is that these things take time, patience and understanding. Tony Blair deserves great credit for making Northern Ireland a long-term priority and always being ready to open a new round of talks. Mo Mowlam, as Peter Hain points out in this magazine (page 12), helped advance things by giving new dimensions to old dialogues. The second point is that high-level external involvement, from the Prime Minister and John Major before him, from the Irish government and, to a degree, from Washington, was essential.

In Iraq patience has not been an option. The deadlines given to the constitution-writers have been criticised, but the truth is that time is in short supply. A functioning, legitimate government in Baghdad is not just vital for the reputation of the Bush administration (though it is too often discussed only in those terms), it is vital to the creation of confidence, trust and consensus among Iraqis. The longer the country lacks such a government, the more likely it is to fragment. Meanwhile the external assistance which can help is absent. The Americans, naturally, are in the thick of things, but their position is compromised. Britain is strangely quiet - we have not seen Blair rolling up his sleeves - though, given our pillion-passenger status in this enterprise, that may be prudent.

In these conditions, without time and without helpful external catalysts, Iraq's politicians have been unable to make significant progress on the issues of federal structure, control of oil wealth and status of religion which will together define the relations between the three communities. Last-minute fudging can make no substantial difference now and we must wait to see how the Sunni community, in particular, reacts to the impasse. Sunni delegates to the talks have spoken of their people taking to the streets and of civil war, and the prospect is frightening. Terrible as conditions are today, and despite the efforts of the extremists, open sectarian conflict has been avoided. All reasonable people must hope it does not happen.

Talk is the only way, and the talking must not be allowed to stop. Some in this country view the process as hopeless, and simply blame that hopelessness on George Bush and Tony Blair, whose actions brought us to this point. That will not do. We may not like how we got here, but unless we want Iraq to sink to a deeper level of hell we must support the talkers.



A dose of common sense

We are, as Ariel Dorfman reminds us beautifully on page 22, in the midst of Einstein year. A century ago, ideas poured forth from that extraordinary brain which redefined scientific understanding of the universe. We are not (ahem) going to discuss those ideas in this leader column, but there is one observation of Einstein's, from later in his life, to which it seems useful to draw attention in 2005. "Common sense," he remarked, "is the collection of prejudices acquired by age 18." We hear a great deal these days, from many quarters, about the dictates of common sense. It tells us we must lock these people up, throw those people out, ban this practice and force people to do that. It is, in short, a stern mistress. Einstein the scientist knew, however, that it was also a foolish one. After all, if you step outside on a fine day and gaze upwards, common sense will tell you that the sun is moving around the earth.

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