I sincerely hope that there is time, though not much, for the NCP to
reconsider her current position and perhaps allow for a renegotiation with
the Alliance as it is currently composed.

The Alliance, instead of drawing lines in the sand and sharpening their
swords in preparation for a war of words with the NCP, should make an all out
effort to re-invite S.M. Dibba and his party back to the negotiating table in
the hopes of forging a compromise which would ensure the NCP's direct
involvement in the Alliance.

The same goes for the NCP. However, from the aforementioned press release, it
appears the NCP is trying to avoid the kind of strife which will create more
schisms between themselves and the Alliance.  This is a very encouraging
development which should be used as a foundation for future negotiations
towards a more widely encompassing Alliance.

The NCP and the Alliance should both realize that this arrangement, as
presently comprised, will simply not suffice when it comes to defeating the
APRC soundly come October.  At first, I, like many, was of the opinion that
the NCP's absence would not really hinder the Opposition's chances of winning
in October.  But, the closer I peeked, the more it became evident that is not
the case.

Before the advent of the barbarians and butchers in power, the NCP was the
main opposition party in The Gambia.  During the last general elections
before the advent of the APRC, the NCP garnered about 36% of the total vote.
Coincidentally, this is approximately the same percentage of votes which the
UDP garnered during the last post-APRC general elections.

Similarities aside, these statistics show that, before the advent of the
APRC, the NCP was a force to be reckoned with in the Gambian political
landscape, and this leads to the million dollar question: Where did all the
NCP supporters go after Decree 89 was passed?

Some of them joined the ranks of the APRC, while the majority of their
supporters joined the then newly formed UDP party.  To buttress my point, I
shall point to the fact that in both parliamentary and general elections held
in formerly strong NCP strongholds, such as Bakau and Baddibou, the results
still favored the Opposition in the UDP.

Former PPP supporters, on the other hand, mostly joined the ranks of the APRC
after Decree 89.  Save for a few constituencies, previous PPP strongholds,
i.e., most of the country, have now become APRC controlled regions.  It is
also to be assumed that some former PPP supporters did vote for the UDP, but
those were probably few and far between, for, to their credit, the APRC did a
good job of attracting supporters who were previously loyal to the former
ruling party.

The phenomenon which occurred after Decree 89 was the biggest realignment of
political affiliations in post-independence Gambian history, and this was
solely caused by advent of the APRC, which led to the infamous Decree.  So,
we know that Yahya was the cause of this occurrence, but what about its
implications as it relates to the events of August 13 ?

Well, as I see it, another realignment of political affiliations is taking
place as we speak and depending on the outcome of future Alliance
negotiations, these changes in party affiliations shall continue to morph.

As a result of the NCP''s current position of refusing to join the Alliance,
the Opposition's core, formerly that of the NCP, will fragment because a
considerable portion will repledge their alliances to the NCP and S.M. Dibba.
 This said, it will be more difficult to ascertain the portion of UDP
supporters that will be lost because of this shift of alliances.  But going
by the strong support the NCP once enjoyed in previous presidential
elections, that loss might be sizable enough to effectively scuttle the
Alliance's hopes for a victory in October.  Possibly, the small portion of
former NCP voters who cast their ballots for the APRC during the last
election might similarly jump ship, but most likely this particular migration
of supporters will only amount to a few percent of the APRC vote, hardly
enough to make a sizable dent in their fortunes.

The PPP, by virtue of their participation in the Alliance, will probably not
be a direct cause for the polarization of UDP's supporter base.  Their
reemergence in the political arena will mean some of its former supporters
will shift their allegiances from the APRC to the Alliance.  But, again,
getting a determination an approximate number is tough.  Regardless, at this
rate, this shift will probably go towards offsetting the loss of voters
created by the polarizing effect caused by the NCP's refusal to go with the
Alliance.

Please note that PDOIS and the GPP are conspicuously absent from my
summation.  I must say that I greatly admire PDOIS whose strategies and
principles, being the best ones out there, can surely move our country
forward.  Nevertheless, there impact in terms of numbers is negligible when
compared to, say, a PPP, NCP, or UDP.  The same applies to the GPP even
though Hassan Musa Camara has been designated elder statesman of the
Alliance.  This is not to say that PDOIS' or GPP's involvement in this
Alliance is not welcome, a few percentage points might make all the
difference this time around and thus they might make the difference, but in
the grand scheme of things the NCP is currently the bigger fish to fry.

So we have it folks: Nothing but a wider Alliance which includes the NCP will
suffice.  This is not the time for divisive politics.  Personal egos, finger
pointing and a war of words will only further turn off voters who might have
otherwise voted for the Alliance, NCP or PDOIS.  Dibba needs to be reengaged
and this way good will surely triumph over evil.

-Jah Lives,
Yus

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