Hi!
    While this walkout by S.M. Dibba might look disastrous on the surface, I don't think we should panic. I believe that this is more of a tactical move than a desire to split the opposition. Mr. Dibba knows by all indications that his chances of winning the elections are rather slim. This is due to numerous facts. Among them are:
1. He has been out of politics for numerous years.
2. He has kept absolutely quiet during the years he was banned whilst people like O.J., Halifa Sallah, Ousainou Darboe, Hamat Bah etc. challenged Jammeh on numerous occasions thus gaining them the image of being fighters for the rights of Gambians. He will therefore have an uphill task of gaining the trust of Gambians.
3.Time is not on his side. He does not have sufficient time to put in place an effective machinery to enable him to outplay the APRC, UDP etc. I do not know if he has the resources, but it will take a lot to create a campaign machinery as effective as that of the APRC or UDP within such a short period.
4. Ousainou Darboe's presence on the political scene for the past years and his numerous battles against the government on human rights and other issues have gained him a lot of support. A lot of this support comes from former NCP supporters. Even though Dibba might be able to take some NCP supporters from Darboe, it would be an illusion to expect to get back all NCP supporters in light of the fact that he has been quiet and inactive for so long. I believe that O.J. would have a better chance of being elected than Dibba because he was widely known during the Jawara era. Add to this is the fact that he was the most vocal and challenging of all of the Decree 89 politicians. The realities on the ground however made the PPP declare its support for Darboe.

    The above and other factors make it an uphill task for Dibba to expect to win the elections. While the NCP might have been the major opposition party during the Jawara era, the UDP has taken its place during the Jammeh era. Dibba therefore knows fairly well that Ousainou Darboe as a presidential candidate has more chances of winning than he does. One has to however use all the chips in one's block during negotiations. If Dibba had accepted Darboe's nomination on the spot, a calculation may be that he might not have been able to gain major concessions in a future government of national unity for his party. By walking out and knowing that he might be able to split the opposition vote, Dibba is hoisting himself in a position from which he can negotiate more favourable conditions. Dibba knows that his party is important in a coalition and that his walkout will not be the end of attempts to get him to join a coalition. He is probably waiting with conditions on a piece of paper for the delegation or phone call encouring him to join. This is about politics, negotiation and the art of gaining concessions. We should therefore not be surprised if we hear very soon that Dibba has accepted Darboe's nomination. Have a good day.
                                                                                                                                Buharry.

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