FOROYAA – BURNING ISSUES


ISSUE NUMBER 100/2003

December 29-31 2003

Editorial

A New Gambia is Needed!!

Ousman Sillah’s Murder Attempt

It is still difficult to believe that a Gambian, born and bred in this
country, would hide in the dark for hours to wait to put off the studio of a
radio station like Radio One FM or a press house like that of the
Independent, or try to shoot a lawyer in cold blood.

One would have thought that people would learn from history. How many hands
have been amputated in Sierra Leone to inspire fear? How many girls have
been raped and how many bellies butchered just to impose one’s will on
another.

Today Sierra Leone, Liberia and Cote d’Ivoire are back to square one. Many
of the warlords have died. Many heads of state have disappeared. Nations and
people remain to try to patch up their shattered lives and shattered dreams.
This is the price of a human being’s cruelty to another human being.

When the attack on the Independent Newspaper occurred, we emphasized that it
is not an act of bravery to hide in the dark to destroy the lives and
properties of defenceless citizens. We emphasized that, any person who is
forced to live in fear by violence will die a thousand times before his
death as books of wisdom taught us. A human being who wants to live in
freedom must never be afraid of his or her fellow human being. Those who
engage in violence to be feared will only earn the contempt of the people.
Once they are found they will bring shame to themselves and their children.
What is clear is that those who operate green picks up without number plates
have been identified with previous terrorism.

Now we are told that on Friday 26th December 2003, between the hours of
12.30am to 1.30am, Mr. Ousman Sillah, a Lawyer to Baba Jobe was shot at his
gate upon his return from a marriage ceremony. He was rushed to Ndemban
clinic where operation was performed. He was flown to Dakar the same day for
further operation. By Saturday morning it was conveyed that he went through
two successful operations and is recovering.

Who is responsible for the murder attempt? What could the person or his
patron gain? Is it designed to silence the Lawyer? This would be absurd
since Baba Jobe has more information than his lawyer. Is it to suppress the
case? This would also be silly since it is the state, which has started the
case and can stop it any time? Is it to destabilize the state? This would
also be absurd since the collapse of the APRC would mean a loss to both the
Baba and Jammeh camps? It is difficult for us to understand the motive of
this senseless violence.

We are anxiously waiting for the outcome of the investigations. We are
closely monitoring the attitudes of all propagandists in this case to locate
the source of this brutal and despicable act.

Notwithstanding this we would relocate the minds of the readers to what we
said since "Operation No Compromise" was declared and detention took place
for more than 72 hours. In our view, the government has lost the capacity to
govern without creating economic and political crisis. Consequently, the
Gambian people should salvage the situation by engaging in a nationwide
consultation with a view to convening a mass national conference involving
civil society organisations, political, religious and traditional
representatives and other opinion leaders.

This mass national conference witnessed by tens of thousands of concerned
Gambians can come up with a charter for Freedom and Democratic Governance.
It can further appoint a committee of wisemen and women whose duty would be
to sensitize the public, discuss with the government and others who wish to
be an alternative to ensure that senseless violence, intimidation, impunity
and devisive politics is put to rest and that an environment conducive to
the establishment of a government based on the undiluted choice of the
people is maintained. This is the way forward. The people must take their
destiny into their own hands. They must ensure that all political leaders
respect that desire to live in peace free from fear.

National leaders could set the ball rolling! Gambia belongs to all of us; we
must not allow a few to destroy it at our expense.



The State of the Gambian Economy

Analysis of 2004 Budget

Foroyaa will suspend its independent analysis of the state of the Gambia
Economy to focus on the speech delivered by the Secretary of State for
Finance and Economic Affairs, Mr. Bala Gaye on the 19th December 2003. Many
readers have requested for a comprehensive evaluation of the speech. Foroyaa
has maintained all along that the Gambian economy was heading towards crisis
despite the denial of the representatives of the government including the
President.

It is therefore important to focus on the assessment of the SoS regarding
the state of the economy.

First and foremost, we will give a brief summary to show the true state of
the economy and then look at all aspects in greater detail.

The Fundamentals of the Economy

Each economy has internal and external factors, which determine its state of
health. This has been summed up in the conditionalities established in order
for Gambia to become qualified to be a member of the West African Monetary
Zone.

The SoS Finance indicated in his opening remarks that "the Gambian economy
has witnessed a series of economic shocks both internal and external that
have threatened to destabilize the economy and indeed, threatened to disrupt
the social fabric of our society."

One may now ask: What are these internal and external shocks?

These are factors that are of concern to the members of the West African
Monetary Zone. They can be summed up as follows:

A government should be able to raise enough revenue to meet its expenditure
requirements to provide public services. If a government fails to earn
enough money to meet its requirements it must either receive aid known as
grants or borrow money to meet its shortfalls or deficits. The West African
Monetary Zone has established a standard to limit the shortfall or budget
deficit. It calls for each government to ensure "sustainable fiscal position
by reducing the ratio of budget deficit (excluding grants) to 4% of GDP or
less throughout the period 2004 – 2005. In his budget speech the SoS
indicated that the budget deficit for 2004 is 11.6% of GDP. The deficit for
2003 is estimated to be D540 Million. The deficit is to rise to D895 Million
in 2004.

Suffice it to say that the deficit falls far short of what is required by
the members of the West African Monetary Zone. This is the first point. Let
us move to the second point of financing deficits through borrowing.

Government Borrowing to Finance Deficits

We have mentioned that a government, which runs into budget deficit, must
either receive grants or borrow to meet its revenue shortfalls. The West
African Monetary Zone has established limits on the financing of deficits
through borrowings. A healthy economy should enable a government to reduce
its dependence on loans or debts to finance the budget. The West African
Monetary Zone has established the limit of financing the deficit to be 10%
of the previous year’s tax revenue. For example, in 2003 the tax revenue
amounted to 1.5 Billion daslasis. The deficit to be financed by borrowing by
the Central Bank should not be more than D150 Million. However, government
borrowing to finance the deficit is increasing.

The SoS indicated that the bulk of domestic debt is in treasury bills, which
constitutes 82% of the domestic debt. The 895 Million dalasis deficit for
2004 is expected to be financed through borrowing. In fact interest payment
on domestic debts will be 994 Million in 2004. Gambia is therefore falling
short of the second requirement for qualification as a member of the West
African Monetary Zone.

On Inflation

The third factor, which emphasises the state of an economy is the
accessibility and affordability of goods. The West African Monetary Zone
imposed a conditionality for inflation not to be above single digit in 2003
and to climb down to 5% in 2004.

The SoS indicated that the annual inflation rate as at September 2003 is
15%. The prices of goods have been skyrocketing without any equivalent rise
in income. This has been acknowledged by the SoS in the following words:

"Moreover, the tight foreign exchange situation caused by shortfalls in
domestic output and export earnings, the rising cost of fuel imports as well
as slowing down of donor assistance, has continued to put pressure on the
exchange rate and therefore on the price level." The SoS added that "the
Gambian people were thus squeezed in two ways, purchasing power had fallen,
and prices had risen."

On Foreign Reserves

The fourth factor in determining the strength of the economy is the level of
the foreign reserves of the country. The West African Monetary Zone expects
an average level of foreign reserves that is equivalent to more than 3
months of import cover. IMF expects 5 months of import cover. The SoS
indicated that the gross foreign reserves of the country fell by 42.2% from
D1530 Million to D883 Million, which provides barely three months of import
cover. This drop from 5.2 months of import cover to 3 months of income cover
indicates a worsening of the state of the economy.

Lastly, the West African Monetary Zone calls for all states to maintain real
exchange rate stability. The SoS however indicated that between December
2002 and September 2003 the Dalasi depreciated in normal terms by about 43%,
50% and 58% against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro respectively.

All these facts indicate that the Gambian economy is indeed in a state of
crisis with a debt burden of 20 Billion Dalasis and debt service charges
amounting to 1.5 Billion for 2004. This constitutes 46% of the National
Budget. This is more than the total expenditure on Education, Health,
Agriculture, Finance, Foreign Affairs, Interior, Tourism, Works,
Information, Fisheries combined. There is no doubt that the debt burden is
Unsustainable.

We will continue to make a comprehensive analysis of the budget speech in
the Next Issue.

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