From the FT.COM
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Kenya's steep decline and Ethiopia's surprising resurgence are the two main
features of the World Economic Forum's Africa Competitiveness Report
published on Wedneday.
The report, compiled by the Harvard Institute for International Development
in co-operation with the Geneva-based World Economic Forum, is the second of
the series to be published.
Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Harvard University, who masterminded the survey,
said the main determinant of whether countries moved up or down the league
table appeared to be politics.
Countries such as Nigeria, Malawi and Tanzania which had moved up reflected a
general sense of an improved political climate for business, while
businesspeople surveyed for the report had given such countries as Kenya and
Zimbabwe the thumbs-down.
The number of countries ranked has been increased to 24 from 23 in 1998, with
the inclusion of Senegal and Madagascar and the dropping of Angola, ranked
bottom two years ago.
There is a change at the top, where Tunisia takes over from Mauritius, but
the other top rankings are unchanged, dominated either by small southern
African economies, Botswana and Namibia, or by North African countries -
Morocco and Egypt.
South Africa remains in seventh place despite a small decline in its
"improvement index".
The biggest gainer by far is Ethiopia, up six places from 17 to 11.
Sub-Saharan Africa's second largest economy, Nigeria, is up two places at 20,
while Malawi also edges ahead.
Kenya tumbles nine places to 22 from 13, and Zimbabwe drops three places to
23, second from bottom and behind both Nigeria and Malawi.
Ivory Coast, also hit by political instability, is down four places at 15 and
Burkina Faso six at 21.
The report notes that Kenya and Zimbabwe are countries where the political
leadership has been in office for more than 20 years. Both countries are
"fraught with growing internal dissension and demands for further
democratisation".
In his assessment, Professor Sachs describes the "democratisation" of Nigeria
as the most important piece of good news in Africa since the 1998 report.
The deepening of democracy in both Senegal and South Africa is "also
noteworthy" he says, while the progress, "albeit inadequate", of debt relief
is another piece of good news.
However, elsewhere in the report, Mr Sachs is highly critical of the progress
of the highly indebted poor countries initiative (HIPC). "The process is
slow, too stingy and too arbitrary," he says.
But the Africa Competitiveness Report warns that news from much of Africa is
bleaker than two years ago. The "shocking extent" of the impact of HIV/Aids
is becoming clearer, with Africa now home for two-thirds of the world's
infected people, while the region continues to be ravaged by civil strife.
Mr Sachs warned that Africa would become even more marginalised unless it
"switched on" to e-commerce.
The report's improvement index - measuring the direction and extent of change
between 19996 and 1999 according to businesspeople - is led by Tanzania,
followed by Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria and Uganda.
The losers in this index include some surprises, especially Mauritius and
South Africa, but the biggest decline by far is in Zimbabwe.
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hkanteh
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