Hope all is well?
Since I cannot find any polls, predictions or forecasts on Sept 22 
Presidential election, I thought I should come up with my own. First, 
some disclaimers: 1. This is not the real thing. The real results will 
not be available until IEC announcement sometime after Sept 22 polls close.
2. The voter list isjust an estimate, based on 2001 voter list, 
estimated number of persons of voting age (2003). The proportions of 
votes allocated to each is based on how each group faired in the past 
ARC based on UDP, APRC on APRC 2001,  NADD (PDOIS 2001). Also taken into 
account is the current composition of political alliances and 
demographics, ethnicity and level of urbanization in each district.

My assumption is the fewer urbanites tend to vote less/ those that vote 
are either organized groups or those who benefit directly from 
government spending. Rural folks tend to vote with strictly along 
historical and ethnic alliances. The development of roads in the north 
bank will mean a APRC will gain the upperhand in those areas. The south 
Bank will be divided based on ethnic lines. Western Division will go 
APRC-  Foni,  Brikama, Kombo North and South for infrastructural 
development /promises.

I bet:
10 bututs APRC will have 58+/- 3%
D1  bututs ARC will have greater than 40%
D5  NADD will have greater than 10%

See you Sep 23.


Malanding Jaiteh




District 	2006_est_voters 	ARC 	APRC 	NADD
Banjul Central  	5,673 	1702 	3404 	567
Banjul North  	10,980 	4392 	6039 	549
Banjul South  	5,512 	1378 	3307 	827
Central Baddibu  	7,326 	3663 	3516 	147
Foni Bintang Karanai 	8,045 	644 	7241 	161
Foni Bondali  	2,973 	238 	2676 	59
Foni Brefet  	5,439 	816 	4351 	272
Foni Jarrol  	2,842 	227 	2558 	57
Foni Kansala  	6,197 	248 	5887 	62
Fulladu East  	45,896 	22030 	22948 	918
Fulladu West  	34,081 	18745 	13633 	1704
Janjanburay   	1,826 	712 	1096 	18
Jarra Central  	3,244 	1687 	1460 	97
Jarra East  	5,611 	3367 	2132 	112
Jarra West  	12,368 	6184 	5566 	618
Jokadu   	8,182 	2127 	5727 	327
K.U.D.C.   	120,500 	34945 	67480 	18075
Kantora   	13,341 	4269 	8672 	400
Kiang Central  	3,693 	2400 	1219 	74
Kiang East  	3,140 	2355 	628 	157
Kiang West  	6,276 	5021 	941 	314
Kombo Central  	44,829 	13449 	29139 	2241
Kombo East  	13,886 	3471 	9720 	694
Kombo North  	90,973 	23653 	59132 	8188
Kombo South  	32,415 	8428 	21070 	2917
Lower Baddibu  	7,493 	5395 	1649 	225
Lower Nuimi  	22,152 	3323 	16836 	1994
Lower Saloum  	6,591 	1977 	4284 	330
Niamina Dankunku  	2,698 	1484 	1187 	27
Niamina East  	9,022 	3880 	4962 	180
Niamina West  	3,171 	1427 	1680 	63
Niani   	9,986 	4694 	5093 	200
Nianija   	3,644 	1458 	2004 	182
Sami   	9,202 	4785 	4141 	276
Sandu   	8,531 	3583 	4436 	427
Upper Baddibu  	26,756 	13378 	12843 	535
Upper Nuimi  	11,700 	3510 	7605 	585
Upper Saloum  	6,821 	2933 	3751 	136
Wuli   	16,547 	4964 	10094 	1489
Total Ballot 	639,563 	222940 	370106 	46206
Percent Vote 	
	35 	58 	7


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