http://dailymaverick.co.za/article/2011-11-24-five-days-three-elections-africa-shadow-boxes-with-democracy-again

Five days, three elections: Africa shadow-boxes with democracy again

In the next week, three African countries - Gambia, the Democratic
Republic of Congo and Egypt - are going to the polls in the busiest
electoral period of the year. In theory, they’ll vote for new leaders
- an exercise representing how far Africa has come, but how far it
still needs to go. By SIMON ALLISON.
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It’s been 16 years since Yahya Jammeh came to power in a bloodless
coup in the Gambia, seizing control of the tiny country which is
little more than an English-speaking splinter in Senegal’s side. He’s
looking for a fourth term as president, and he’ll get it. As he’s well
aware. “If re-elected for another five years, which I am 100% sure of,
I will make sure that my government unveils new projects for Gambians
every three months,” he told a well-staged rally on Tuesday, the final
day of campaigning. He has previously claimed that only God himself
can remove him from power.

A report in Africa Review described the final campaign stop nicely:
“Dressed in his typical garb of billowing white robes, clutching
prayer beads and a sceptre, Jammeh greeted the crowd of orderly and
adoring supporters, all perfectly decked out in party colours.
Prompted by military officials, the crowd would surge forward, cheer
wildly and then quickly retreat to seated positions in the blazing
heat, while free cool drinks were handed out. International
journalists were handed party T-shirts and instructed to put them on
by soldiers.”

Gambia’s elections are essentially for show. Opposition candidates
stand no real chance, especially given the amount of money behind
Jammeh’s campaign. As one analyst commented: “[Jammeh] has the money
to buy each vote a dozen times over.” Couple this wealth – the product
of an all-too-blurred line between state resources, ruling party
resources and Jammeh’s own wealth – with his willingness to resort to
brutal intimidation to keep opponents quiet, and it’s clear that
Jammeh’s confidence in victory is well-founded. The result is such a
foregone conclusion that the Economic Community of West African States
has refused to send observers, saying the preparations and political
environment in the country are not conducive to free and fair
elections.

Jammeh’s supporters deny this claim, and point to the country’s steady
if slow economic growth, infrastructure development and political
stability as evidence that his rule is benevolent. This justification
looks especially thin this year, after the protestations of
benevolence of at least three African dictators – Mubarak, Ben Ali and
Gaddafi – were unceremoniously rejected by their people.

After Gambia’s elections, focus shifts immediately to the Democratic
Republic of Congo, where incumbent Joseph Kabila looks like he’ll edge
it over his opponents, who have struggled and ultimately failed to
unite against the ruling party. Kabila is the son of Laurent Kabila,
one of the leading figures in the fight against former dictator Mobutu
Sese Seko and the country’s first president after Mobutu’s downfall.
Kabila senior was assassinated while in office and immediately
succeeded by his son.

Chaos, the most common descriptor of the country itself, is perhaps
the best word to describe the run-up to Sunday’s presidential
elections; if they go ahead. There are some fears the election won’t
go ahead as planned if the logistical challenges around getting
polling material to polling stations can’t be overcome in time. In
addition to this, there have been pre-election violence, some
shadiness in the operations of the electoral commission and the
bizarre proclamations of main opponent Etienne Tshisekedi, who told
listeners on a radio station that he had already been chosen as
president by popular acclaim. Tshisekedi will certainly give Kabila a
run for his money, as he commands plenty of support in regions that
aren’t big fans of Kabila. For a detailed analysis, read DRC expert
Jason Stearn’s blog post. Ultimately, the momentum that comes with
being a sitting president should see Kabila re-elected. But don’t
expect anything to go smoothly – there will be plenty of accusations
of vote-rigging and there could well be post-election violence.

This would be a disaster for the DRC, which is making its very first
steps on the road to recovery after the wasted Mobuto years and the
ensuing pan-African war over resources which at one stage involved
armies from at least 10 African countries. The best-case scenario is
that the election is not perfect, but passable, and provides enough
legitimacy for whoever wins to start building a nation.

Finally, Egyptians are meant to choose their elected representatives
for the first time since their independence from Britain. They’ve
voted before, of course, but in the days of Hosni Mubarak the entire
electoral process was tilted so far in favour of Mubarak’s party that
there wasn’t much in the way of choice, as evidenced by the 90%-plus
majorities he regularly obtained. But there’s been a revolution, and
Mubarak’s gone, and the parliamentary elections on Monday were going
to be a symbol of how far Egypt has come in the intervening months.

Except they haven’t come very far at all it appears. The interim
military government started flexing its muscles, trying to protect its
power, and Egypt’s revolutionaries realised their job wasn’t finished.
So they returned to the streets and the military responded in exactly
the same way Mubarak did: using force to stop the crowds, killing
dozens and then offering a few half-baked compromises thinking the
problem would then go away. It hasn’t.

What this means for Monday’s parliamentary elections is unclear. The
military government insists they’ll go ahead, but several parties have
suspended their campaigns, including the Muslim Brotherhood, thought
to be Egypt’s most popular party. They have not yet withdrawn from the
elections, but that’s certainly an option and, if they do, the
elections won’t have any credibility. Even if they do go ahead, unless
the military government makes some comprehensive reforms – which
protesters in Tahrir Square say must include handing over power to a
civilian transitional authority – then it won’t be the cathartic,
coming-of-age moment Egypt’s revolution is so desperate for.

This coming week is a big one in Africa’s democratic progress. Three
countries, three elections, and three chances to get thing right. But
also three chances for things to go wrong – again - and at present
that’s the most likely scenario. DM

-- 
-Laye
==============================
"With fair speech thou might have thy will,
With it thou might thy self spoil."
--The R.M

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