After Elections will just BE like before election.
Malanding Jaiteh <[log in to unmask]> wrote: Hope all is well?
Since I cannot find any polls, predictions or forecasts on Sept 22
Presidential election, I thought I should come up with my own. First,
some disclaimers: 1. This is not the real thing. The real results will
not be available until IEC announcement sometime after Sept 22 polls close.
2. The voter list isjust an estimate, based on 2001 voter list,
estimated number of persons of voting age (2003). The proportions of
votes allocated to each is based on how each group faired in the past
ARC based on UDP, APRC on APRC 2001, NADD (PDOIS 2001). Also taken into
account is the current composition of political alliances and
demographics, ethnicity and level of urbanization in each district.
My assumption is the fewer urbanites tend to vote less/ those that vote
are either organized groups or those who benefit directly from
government spending. Rural folks tend to vote with strictly along
historical and ethnic alliances. The development of roads in the north
bank will mean a APRC will gain the upperhand in those areas. The south
Bank will be divided based on ethnic lines. Western Division will go
APRC- Foni, Brikama, Kombo North and South for infrastructural
development /promises.
I bet:
10 bututs APRC will have 58+/- 3%
D1 bututs ARC will have greater than 40%
D5 NADD will have greater than 10%
See you Sep 23.
Malanding Jaiteh
District 2006_est_voters ARC APRC NADD
Banjul Central 5,673 1702 3404 567
Banjul North 10,980 4392 6039 549
Banjul South 5,512 1378 3307 827
Central Baddibu 7,326 3663 3516 147
Foni Bintang Karanai 8,045 644 7241 161
Foni Bondali 2,973 238 2676 59
Foni Brefet 5,439 816 4351 272
Foni Jarrol 2,842 227 2558 57
Foni Kansala 6,197 248 5887 62
Fulladu East 45,896 22030 22948 918
Fulladu West 34,081 18745 13633 1704
Janjanburay 1,826 712 1096 18
Jarra Central 3,244 1687 1460 97
Jarra East 5,611 3367 2132 112
Jarra West 12,368 6184 5566 618
Jokadu 8,182 2127 5727 327
K.U.D.C. 120,500 34945 67480 18075
Kantora 13,341 4269 8672 400
Kiang Central 3,693 2400 1219 74
Kiang East 3,140 2355 628 157
Kiang West 6,276 5021 941 314
Kombo Central 44,829 13449 29139 2241
Kombo East 13,886 3471 9720 694
Kombo North 90,973 23653 59132 8188
Kombo South 32,415 8428 21070 2917
Lower Baddibu 7,493 5395 1649 225
Lower Nuimi 22,152 3323 16836 1994
Lower Saloum 6,591 1977 4284 330
Niamina Dankunku 2,698 1484 1187 27
Niamina East 9,022 3880 4962 180
Niamina West 3,171 1427 1680 63
Niani 9,986 4694 5093 200
Nianija 3,644 1458 2004 182
Sami 9,202 4785 4141 276
Sandu 8,531 3583 4436 427
Upper Baddibu 26,756 13378 12843 535
Upper Nuimi 11,700 3510 7605 585
Upper Saloum 6,821 2933 3751 136
Wuli 16,547 4964 10094 1489
Total Ballot 639,563 222940 370106 46206
Percent Vote
35 58 7
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