"The devil you know is better than the angel you don't know"
"The devil you know is better than the angel you don't know"
"The devil you know is better than the angel you don't know"
You got it?
Just like 123, ABC.

"The Gambia deserves better"

Fina.

>From: TOMBONG SAIDY <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: SENEGALESE ELECTIONS
>Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 04:35:02 PST
>
>The Senegalese landscape is undergoing some interesting geothermal
>transformation at a speed that excites political analysts. Few days ago it
>seems that President Joof was going to loose the upcoming elections,
>however
>there are developments that are now tilting things in favour of President
>Joof.
>
>Mr. Djibo Ka the leader of URD and a former supporter of PS (the Socialist
>Party led by President Joof) has announced that he will support President
>Joof in the second round of the Presidential Elections.
>
>During the first round of the elections the results were as follows:
>
>Joof - PS               = 40%
>Wade - PDS      =31%
>Niasse - AFP    = 16%
>Ka -        URD =7%
>
>Mathematically if the opposition unite, they would win provided that all
>their supporters vote for Wade in the second round. However, now that Djibo
>Ka is supporting Joof, things could take a different turn. Another
>dimension
>to elections is that there were 1 million voters who did not vote in the
>first round. Political analysts are having a field day in predicting who
>the
>winner will be in the second round.
>
>I am predicting that President Joof will win the second round. My reasons
>are:
>
>1. The majority of those who voted for Niasse and Djibo Ka (totalling 23%)
>are staunch supporters of PS, however they are not satisfy with the reform
>taking place within PS. They are also not happy with Tanor Dieng's role and
>prominence within PS. However they have been voting against Wade for the
>past 20 years and most of them would rather stick with President Joof than
>vote for Wade - "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't
>know". I am saying that at least half of the voters who voter for Djibo Ka
>and Niasse will vote for President Joof.
>
>2. The fact that Djibo Ka is supporting President Joof, I believe even
>validates my argument further that "the devil you know is better than the
>devil you don't know". If most of his supporters follow his advice,
>President Joof's chances will increase.
>
>3. The one million voters who did not vote in the first is a critical
>number
>and it is difficult to predict which way they will vote. However, if they
>are seen as a sample representing Senegalese voters the result could be
>they
>same as in the first round. This means 40% of these voters will vote for
>President Joof and some of those who would have voted for Niasse and Djibo
>Ka would also vote for President Joof for the same reasons I stated before.
>
>4. President Joof needs only 11% more and he will get it in the second
>round. The second round is scheduled for 19th March, two days after Tobaski
>and this is advantageous to President Joof because most voters, especially
>those in Dakar and environs, have gone to their respective villages for the
>Tobaski and some of them will not make back on time to vote. This is
>critical because the support of the opposition is very strong in the
>capital
>and urban areas.
>
>5. Serign Modu Kara Mbacke has announced that he will vote for President
>Joof because the late Seriegn Touba told him in a dream that President Joof
>will continue to rule Senegal. He urges all his supporters to vote for
>President Joof. This has caused a division within the Mourite Brotherhood
>and the impact of his announcement will be felt one way or the other.
>
>6. There will be further development from now against Sunday and all signs
>are President Joof will win, may be by a small majority of 1% to 3%, but he
>will win the second round.
>
>7. I just returned from Dakar on a three days (10 - 12 March) private visit
>and this visit gave me more opportunity to analyse the situation. President
>Joof was on SUD FM live in a forum where he answers questions from the
>public and he did very well.
>
>8. His only problem is the youth vote (the voting age is 18 years and
>above.
>This group has not seen any progress during there live time (i.e. the past
>18 to 25 years). This group has seen their peers, brothers, sisters etc
>graduate from college, universities and are unemployed. However, he has
>come
>with plans to address the unemployment and other youth related problems. He
>will convince  a few of them to vote for him.
>
>I conclude by saying that lets pray for the whole process to be peaceful
>because if there is trouble in Senegal we will be affected one way or the
>other. Soldiers are deployed around Dakar, especially around strategy and
>important installations.
>
>
>
>PEACE
>
>TOMBONG SAIDY
>
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