Silvia Winowski writes:
> Martin William Smith wrote:
>
> > I think the real reason NATO got involved is because the situation
> > threatened "the system".  Chomsky calls it the world order, but by now
> > I think it should be called the system.  With the disappearance of the
> > USSR, the world has become a single economic system, and anything that
> > threatens to disrupt that system will be stopped.  The situation in
> > Yugoslavia threatens the system by threatening to spread refugees all
> > over Europe, putting stress on the EU economy during a time when there
> > are already stresses on the system in Asia and South America.
>
> Martin, I have certainly enjoyed reading your comments.
> Could you please give me your opinion on what will be
> the outcome of this intervention?

Despite all evidence to the contrary, I am an eternal optimist.  In my
most cynical moments, I think the US intent is to allow something to
grow in the former Yugoslavia as long as it grows into "the system".
If and when it deviates, the IMF offers to help it get back on course.
If it rejects the offer, the US destroys it and waits for something
else to start growing again.

Fortunately, I am not that cynical most of the time, so I continue to
think that, although the Russians really do disagree with the bombing,
they will come up with a negotiated deal that will have Milosevic
agree to pull his forces out of Kosovo and let UN forces in.  Many of
the actual troops will be NATO troops, but they will be wearing blue
berets and be under UN command.  The big stick that keeps the Serb
army in line will still be the threat of NATO.

NATO will not back down, and I think Milosevic has made a bad error in
not seeing that.  He can make NATO look very bad, which he has done by
having his people send as many Albanians as possible across the border.

I can't believe NATO thought Milosevic would roll over when the
bombing started.  Their plan must have extended past the bombing.  I
think NATO really didn't anticipate the Serb tactics of sending out a
flood of refugees, or they would have had supplies ready to be shipped
in for them.  Still, I think a flood of refugees is better than the mass
graves found after the last war.

So I continue to believe that the US and Russia are talking behind the
scenes, and that we are seeing a variation of the good cop bad cop
interrogation technique.  NATO is the bad cop, and Russia is the good
cop.  Russia will make the deal that will end the bombing.  Note that
Russia hasn't done anything to hinder NATO.  I think Russia will
provide arms to the Serbs, but only as part of the deal with Milosevic
to pull his army and police out of Kosovo.  Russia comes out of it as
the good guy (with badly needed money coming in from arms deals with
the Serbs, and probably more loan guarantees from the US); NATO comes
out of it as a real enforcer (instead of an enforcer in theory),
Milosevic remains in power (for the time being), the IMF gets another
chance to get it right, and Kosovo might become an independent state.

> Yugoslavia is a country torn by many ethnic groups and
> interests....The entire area is not a very politically stable one.
> Apparently the NATO retaliation has only increased the frequency and
> severity of the attacks against the Albanians.  Air attacks might
> destroy certain targets but not the small military groups that are
> actually driving the Albaninas out of their villages. These groups
> are constantly moving and can only be confronted by ground troops,
> which many knowledgeable people in this area, have said must be done
> if Nato wants this action to stop.

This is all correct, I think, except I still say it is not accurate to
say the NATO action is the cause of increased the frequency and
severity of the attacks against the Albanians.  In any case, I agree
that none of it is justified.

> Obviously NATO is not too keen on this, will they ultimately
> have to enter with ground troops anyway? Also, Yugoslavia has
> historical ties with the Ex-Soviet block...How will they ultimately
> react to this? In other words, I'm afraid that beyond the unethical
> considerations of this intervention, there might be unforseen
> ramifications. What is your opinion?

I addressed most of this above.  Although there are certainly
extremists in Russia and elsewhere in the Ex-Soviet block, I'm not
really worried about them.  I think the Russians really do want to do
the right thing, and they really want to get on with the business of
dealing with their own problems.  Everything they are saying about the
NATO action is right on, but notice they aren't actually getting in
the way.  They are setting themselves up as the voice of reason, from
the point of view of Europe and the US, and as the enemy of my enemy
from the point of view of Milosevic.  I hope they make the deal soon.

martin

Martin Smith                    Email: [log in to unmask]
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