Ah well, it's what I do for a living--both for the gov't and the Guard.
This has been simmering and simmering in South East Asia since before
the SARS scare. One case in Vietnam was caused by the patient's
drinking raw duck blood, so the fact that most of us in the West don't
have such intimate contact with poultry is a mitigating factor.
There have been several documented cases where H5N1 has made the
avian-to-mammal jump. It's been to cats and dogs, so this has raised a
few eyebrows because there's so much interaction between the three in
just about all cultures.
Ken, do you remember the 1976-77 "Swine Flu" scare? It started with a
couple of soldiers at Ft. Dix coming down with flu symptoms and then
blood tests showed that 200+ soldiers had been exposed to H1N1. Nobody
less than 50 years old had any immunity. I was in college at Ohio State
the time and you would have thought the world was ending. Kids were
lined up around the block at St. John Arena (the old basketball gym) to
get shots. Instead of hypodermic needles they used the air guns that
shot the vaccine right through your skin. The air guns had been
supplied by the military, but the nurses had little to no training on
their use. If you didn't hold the gun at a right angle, tight against
the arm, the thing would rip a nasty crescent shaped hole in your skin.
I still have my scar. What a trip that was. LOL!
-----Original Message-----
From: Cerebral Palsy List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
Of ken barber
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 2:43 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
you got a pretty good handle on this, much more than a
normal layman. we'd lose millions of people.
--- "Cleveland, Kyle E."
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Yeah...the documentation supports two-generation
> infections in SE Asia
> for Human-Human infection right now. Seven of eight
> family members in
> one dwelling became infected.
>
> Of the 200+ human infections, here are the things
> that scare me about
> this (see www.pandemicflu.gov for an overview)
>
> 1) Primarily young, healthy people are
> affected--with a 60% mortality
> rate.
> 2) Of the four antivirals that we currently have
> available, two were
> totally ineffective in the clinical settings in
> which they were used,
> one was suspect. IVIG (Intra-venous
> Immunogammablobulin) therapy has
> not been shown to be effective.
> 3) There are only four known A subtypes of influenza
> viruses (H1N1,
> H1N2, H3N2, and H7N2) currently circulating among
> humans. H5N1 is a
> whole new game--no one has a natural immunity.
> (It's pretty much common
> knowledge that a vaccine will take at least 6 months
> to produce once the
> specific genetic subtype has been isolated.)
> 4) In the US, "Just-In-Time" logistical systems will
> be overwhelmed by
> surge--particularly those of hospitals and
> pharmaceutical producers.
> 5) The only effective means to break the cycle of
> infection will be
> quarantine/isolation. This will be almost
> impossible to control on a
> volunteer basis.
> 6) All public works, government, law enforcement,
> medical facilities,
> grocery outlets (you name it) will experience up to
> 80% absenteeism
> through actual infection, caregiving, "worried
> well".
>
> This will be the great equalizer--affecting rich and
> poor to almost the
> same degree. The "free world's" enemies and friends
> will both be
> equally affected, superposing even the most strident
> socio-political
> issues.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Cerebral Palsy List
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
> Of ken barber
> Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 12:21 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
>
> are we talking bird flu as the start of the
> pandemic?
> this is a scare that history supports.
>
> --- "Cleveland, Kyle E."
> <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> > Peter,
> >
> > Depends on who's doing the modeling: Who's writing
> > the code? Who's
> > creating the scenarios? Who's interpreting the
> > extrapolated data?
> > Who's deciding which data is input into the model?
>
> > Modeling for
> > long-term climactic study is still in its infancy.
>
> > We don't really know
> > if "it works". How can we? Modeling is based on
> > input of data that has
> > produced predictable, reliable results over time.
> >
> > Personally, I would look at the NIH/CDC models for
> > pandemic flu if you
> > want a good scare. Using the data from the 1918,
> > 1956 and 1968
> > pandemics, these models are terrifying in that
> they
> > predict death rates
> > up to 20% in some cases. This, in a three-surge
> > event over a period of
> > two years. I think this trumps concerns about
> > climactic change, in my
> > book, and I believe this is a clear and present
> > danger that we need to
> > be marshalling forces for NOW.
> >
> > Public Health officials are absolutely terrified
> of
> > an influenza
> > pandemic because they have absolutely no means of
> > realistic prophylaxis
> > in the general population. All we have for
> > direction at the moment is
> > to be vigilant about hand washing and wear an N95
> > mask (dubious
> > protection for something as small as a virus).
> >
> > I would that our Internet pioneer, Mr. Gore, had
> put
> > his eggs into this
> > basket if he needed a "cause celebre". Talk about
> > your Inconvenient
> > Truths...
> >
> > Respectfully,
> >
> > Kyle C.
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Cerebral Palsy List
> > [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
> > Of Peter Hunsberger
> > Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 10:01 AM
> > To: [log in to unmask]
> > Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
> >
> > Ken two words:
> >
> > "Computer modeling"
> >
> > It didn't exist in very usable form until as
> > recently as 15 years ago.
> >
> > It does now. It works, it's accurate.
> >
> > Stop pretending that 100 year old events, or even
> 30
> > year old events,
> > have
> > anything to do with the current concern over the
> > climate.
> >
> >
> > --
> > Peter Hunsberger
> >
> > -----------------------
> >
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> >
>
>
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