Yeah...the documentation supports two-generation infections in SE Asia
for Human-Human infection right now. Seven of eight family members in
one dwelling became infected.
Of the 200+ human infections, here are the things that scare me about
this (see www.pandemicflu.gov for an overview)
1) Primarily young, healthy people are affected--with a 60% mortality
rate.
2) Of the four antivirals that we currently have available, two were
totally ineffective in the clinical settings in which they were used,
one was suspect. IVIG (Intra-venous Immunogammablobulin) therapy has
not been shown to be effective.
3) There are only four known A subtypes of influenza viruses (H1N1,
H1N2, H3N2, and H7N2) currently circulating among humans. H5N1 is a
whole new game--no one has a natural immunity. (It's pretty much common
knowledge that a vaccine will take at least 6 months to produce once the
specific genetic subtype has been isolated.)
4) In the US, "Just-In-Time" logistical systems will be overwhelmed by
surge--particularly those of hospitals and pharmaceutical producers.
5) The only effective means to break the cycle of infection will be
quarantine/isolation. This will be almost impossible to control on a
volunteer basis.
6) All public works, government, law enforcement, medical facilities,
grocery outlets (you name it) will experience up to 80% absenteeism
through actual infection, caregiving, "worried well".
This will be the great equalizer--affecting rich and poor to almost the
same degree. The "free world's" enemies and friends will both be
equally affected, superposing even the most strident socio-political
issues.
-----Original Message-----
From: Cerebral Palsy List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
Of ken barber
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 12:21 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
are we talking bird flu as the start of the pandemic?
this is a scare that history supports.
--- "Cleveland, Kyle E."
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Peter,
>
> Depends on who's doing the modeling: Who's writing
> the code? Who's
> creating the scenarios? Who's interpreting the
> extrapolated data?
> Who's deciding which data is input into the model?
> Modeling for
> long-term climactic study is still in its infancy.
> We don't really know
> if "it works". How can we? Modeling is based on
> input of data that has
> produced predictable, reliable results over time.
>
> Personally, I would look at the NIH/CDC models for
> pandemic flu if you
> want a good scare. Using the data from the 1918,
> 1956 and 1968
> pandemics, these models are terrifying in that they
> predict death rates
> up to 20% in some cases. This, in a three-surge
> event over a period of
> two years. I think this trumps concerns about
> climactic change, in my
> book, and I believe this is a clear and present
> danger that we need to
> be marshalling forces for NOW.
>
> Public Health officials are absolutely terrified of
> an influenza
> pandemic because they have absolutely no means of
> realistic prophylaxis
> in the general population. All we have for
> direction at the moment is
> to be vigilant about hand washing and wear an N95
> mask (dubious
> protection for something as small as a virus).
>
> I would that our Internet pioneer, Mr. Gore, had put
> his eggs into this
> basket if he needed a "cause celebre". Talk about
> your Inconvenient
> Truths...
>
> Respectfully,
>
> Kyle C.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Cerebral Palsy List
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
> Of Peter Hunsberger
> Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 10:01 AM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
>
> Ken two words:
>
> "Computer modeling"
>
> It didn't exist in very usable form until as
> recently as 15 years ago.
>
> It does now. It works, it's accurate.
>
> Stop pretending that 100 year old events, or even 30
> year old events,
> have
> anything to do with the current concern over the
> climate.
>
>
> --
> Peter Hunsberger
>
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