the cdc was very worried about this even when i was
still there and i have been gone now between 4-5
years. 
--- "Cleveland, Kyle E."
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> Yeah...the documentation supports two-generation
> infections in SE Asia
> for Human-Human infection right now.  Seven of eight
> family members in
> one dwelling became infected.
> 
> Of the 200+ human infections, here are the things
> that scare me about
> this (see www.pandemicflu.gov for an overview)
> 
> 1) Primarily young, healthy people are
> affected--with a 60% mortality
> rate.
> 2) Of the four antivirals that we currently have
> available, two were
> totally ineffective in the clinical settings in
> which they were used,
> one was suspect.  IVIG (Intra-venous
> Immunogammablobulin) therapy has
> not been shown to be effective.
> 3) There are only four known A subtypes of influenza
> viruses (H1N1,
> H1N2, H3N2, and H7N2) currently circulating among
> humans.  H5N1 is a
> whole new game--no one has a natural immunity. 
> (It's pretty much common
> knowledge that a vaccine will take at least 6 months
> to produce once the
> specific genetic subtype has been isolated.)
> 4) In the US, "Just-In-Time" logistical systems will
> be overwhelmed by
> surge--particularly those of hospitals and
> pharmaceutical producers.
> 5) The only effective means to break the cycle of
> infection will be
> quarantine/isolation.  This will be almost
> impossible to control on a
> volunteer basis.
> 6) All public works, government, law enforcement,
> medical facilities,
> grocery outlets (you name it) will experience up to
> 80% absenteeism
> through actual infection, caregiving, "worried
> well".
> 
> This will be the great equalizer--affecting rich and
> poor to almost the
> same degree.  The "free world's" enemies and friends
> will both be
> equally affected, superposing even the most strident
> socio-political
> issues.
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Cerebral Palsy List
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
> Of ken barber
> Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 12:21 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
> 
> are we talking bird flu as the start of the
> pandemic?
> this is a scare that history supports. 
> 
> --- "Cleveland, Kyle E."
> <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> 
> > Peter,
> > 
> > Depends on who's doing the modeling: Who's writing
> > the code?  Who's
> > creating the scenarios?  Who's interpreting the
> > extrapolated data?
> > Who's deciding which data is input into the model?
> 
> > Modeling for
> > long-term climactic study is still in its infancy.
> 
> > We don't really know
> > if "it works".  How can we?  Modeling is based on
> > input of data that has
> > produced predictable, reliable results over time.
> > 
> > Personally, I would look at the NIH/CDC models for
> > pandemic flu if you
> > want a good scare.  Using the data from the 1918,
> > 1956 and 1968
> > pandemics, these models are terrifying in that
> they
> > predict death rates
> > up to 20% in some cases.  This, in a three-surge
> > event over a period of
> > two years.  I think this trumps concerns about
> > climactic change, in my
> > book, and I believe this is a clear and present
> > danger that we need to
> > be marshalling forces for NOW.
> > 
> > Public Health officials are absolutely terrified
> of
> > an influenza
> > pandemic because they have absolutely no means of
> > realistic prophylaxis
> > in the general population.  All we have for
> > direction at the moment is
> > to be vigilant about hand washing and wear an N95
> > mask (dubious
> > protection for something as small as a virus).
> > 
> > I would that our Internet pioneer, Mr. Gore, had
> put
> > his eggs into this
> > basket if he needed a "cause celebre".  Talk about
> > your Inconvenient
> > Truths...
> > 
> > Respectfully,
> > 
> > Kyle C.
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Cerebral Palsy List
> > [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
> > Of Peter Hunsberger
> > Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 10:01 AM
> > To: [log in to unmask]
> > Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
> > 
> > Ken two words:
> > 
> > "Computer modeling"
> > 
> > It didn't exist in very usable form until as
> > recently as 15 years ago.
> > 
> > It does now. It works, it's accurate.
> > 
> > Stop pretending that 100 year old events, or even
> 30
> > year old events,
> > have
> > anything to do with the current concern over the
> > climate.
> > 
> > 
> > -- 
> > Peter Hunsberger
> > 
> > -----------------------
> > 
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> 
> 
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