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----- Original Message -----
From: "Declan McCullagh" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Monday, November 06, 2000 9:32 AM
Subject: FC: Computer simulation predicts George W. Bush wins election
>
>
>
> http://www.cluebot.com/article.pl?sid=00/11/06/0520254&mode=nested
>
> Computer Simulation Predicts Bush Wins Election
> posted by cicero on Monday November 06, @07:15AM
> from the computers-never-lie dept.
>
> Congratulations, Dubya! If our electoral simulation is correct,
> you're the new prez. This is based on what statisticians call
> a Monte Carlo simulation, a standard technique in which virtual
> elections are repeated over and over based on the latest poll
> intelligence to get an average score. The result? According to our
> in-house mathematician and polling analyst (read the writeup below):
> "At the end of each list of trials the maximum, minimum, and average
> over the 100 trials are reported for each candidate. Though 270
> Electoral Votes are needed to claim the Presidency, in none of the 200
> simulations here did Gore win over 257. The average result is Bush 340
> and Gore 200." Alas, our author can't take the credit he deserves.
> Because of unrelated, non-political consulting work he does for the
> government, he wishes to remain anonymous.
>
>
> Monte Carlo Simulations of the Electoral College Based on Rasmussen
> Research's State Surveys.
>
> In each state, independent random choices are made for each of the
three
> candidates from probability distributions with means chosen as
indicated
> below and with an appropriate standard deviation about half of the
margin
> of error. This probability distribution is the same one from which
the
> margin of error is computed. The standard deviation for Nader was
> appropriately scaled to account for his smaller percentage. Finally,
the
> candidate's results are compared and that state's Electoral Votes
awarded
> to the one with larger percentage.
>
> There are two sets of simulations below in which the means are chosen
in
> two different ways. In the first case the mean of the distribution
for
> each candidate and state is the latest survey result, as of Sunday,
November 5.
>
> In the second case, the mean is the survey result predicted for
November 7
> obtained by adding a correction to the last survey result. The
correction
> is the change in the candidate's national trend line between the date
of
> the last survey for that state and a (slightly) extrapolated November
7
> value. The trend lines were constructed by eye, and arrive at
election day
> with Bush having 47.5% and Gore 42.5%. The effect is to increase the
mean
> of Bush's distribution relative to Gore's for states last surveyed
before
> the third debate.
>
>
> The results of 100 simulations of each kind are presented here. Two
totals
> are presented for each candidate in each simulation. The first is the
> national total, and the second is the total for the ten tossup states
where
> the difference between the candidates is currently 3 points or less.
>
> At the end of each list of trials the maximum, minimum, and average
over
> the 100 trials are reported for each candidate. Though 270 Electoral
Votes
> are needed to claim the Presidency, in none of the 200 simulations
here did
> Gore win over 257. The average result is Bush 340 and Gore 200.
>
> The largest variation is caused by the California result. Since
California
> has 54 electoral votes, and the rest total 94, if one candidate's
tossup
> total is greater than 94, that candidate has won California. This is
true
>
> for Bush five times in the first set of 100, and seven times in the
second
> set. Note that the maximum of the tossup totals for Gore is 132.
This
> means that Bush won some trials in which Gore got nearly all of the
148
> tossup votes. Half of those times, Bush's total was 400 Electoral
Votes or
> more.
>
>
> Tossup States
>
> California 54
> Delaware 3
> Minnesota 10
> Washington 11
> Michigan 18
> Tennessee 11
>
> Arkansas 6
> Florida 25
> New Mexico 5
> West Virginia 5
>
>
> Simulations Based on Most Recent Survey
>
> Trial# GoreEV BushEV GTossEV BTossEV
>
> 1 183 355 69 79
> 2 207 331 93 55
> 3 156 382 64 84
> 4 225 313 111 37
> 5 202 336 81 67
> 6 211 327 97 51
> 7 212 326 94 54
> 8 217 321 103 45
> 9 223 315 109 39
> 10 199 339 85 63
> 11 194 344 80 68
> 12 221 317 107 41
> 13 214 324 93 55
> 14 218 320 104 44
> 15 203 335 89 59
> 16 203 335 89 59
> 17 224 314 106 42
> 18 203 335 89 59
> 19 186 352 72 76
> 20 223 315 102 46
> 21 184 354 70 78
> 22 173 365 59 89
> 23 197 341 83 65
> 24 214 324 85 63
> 25 199 339 85 63
> 26 215 323 101 47
> 27 182 356 68 80
> 28 200 338 86 62
> 29 200 338 86 62
> 30 193 345 79 69
> 31 189 349 75 73
> 32 197 341 83 65
> 33 152 386 38 110
> 34 186 352 72 76
> 35 182 356 68 80
> 36 214 324 89 59
> 37 221 317 107 41
> 38 188 350 96 52
> 39 188 350 74 74
> 40 221 317 107 41
> 41 224 314 99 49
> 42 186 352 72 76
> 43 217 321 107 41
> 44 214 324 122 26
> 45 192 346 78 70
> 46 130 408 16 132
> 47 246 292 132 16
> 48 208 330 94 54
> 49 192 346 78 70
> 50 192 346 78 70
> 51 213 325 114 34
> 52 171 367 57 91
> 53 208 330 83 65
> 54 218 320 104 44
> 55 173 365 59 89
> 56 171 367 57 91
> 57 217 321 103 45
> 58 214 324 110 38
> 59 222 316 108 40
> 60 231 307 117 31
> 61 183 355 69 79
> 62 200 338 86 62
> 63 168 370 54 94
> 64 246 292 121 27
> 65 203 335 107 41
> 66 205 333 91 57
> 67 186 352 72 76
> 68 227 311 102 46
> 69 203 335 89 59
> 70 186 352 79 69
> 71 207 331 93 55
> 72 199 339 85 63
> 73 196 342 71 77
> 74 138 400 24 124
> 75 149 389 35 113
> 76 125 413 11 137
> 77 199 339 85 63
> 78 228 310 114 34
> 79 198 340 80 68
> 80 207 331 93 55
> 81 176 362 62 86
> 82 208 330 94 54
> 83 193 345 68 80
> 84 200 338 79 69
> 85 217 321 103 45
> 86 184 354 70 78
> 87 200 338 86 62
> 88 216 322 102 46
> 89 200 338 86 62
> 90 179 359 65 83
> 91 223 315 86 62
> 92 199 339 85 63
> 93 221 317 107 41
> 94 204 334 90 58
> 95 215 323 101 47
> 96 168 370 54 94
> 97 176 362 62 86
> 98 197 341 83 65
> 99 195 343 81 67
> 100 210 328 96 52
>
> max 246 413 132 137
> min 125 292 11 16
> avg 198.92 339.08 84.57 63.43
>
>
>
> Simulations Based On Date-Adjusted Data
>
> Trial# GoreEV BushEV GTossEV BTossEV
>
> 1 200 338 86 62
> 2 207 331 93 55
> 3 221 317 107 41
> 4 171 367 79 69
> 5 216 322 98 50
> 6 211 327 97 51
> 7 211 327 97 51
> 8 223 315 102 46
> 9 179 359 65 83
> 10 203 335 85 63
> 11 197 341 83 65
> 12 246 292 132 16
> 13 199 339 85 63
> 14 203 335 89 59
> 15 230 308 116 32
> 16 235 303 121 27
> 17 196 342 78 70
> 18 147 391 29 119
> 19 192 346 78 70
> 20 218 320 104 44
> 21 153 385 39 109
> 22 203 335 89 59
> 23 209 329 91 57
> 24 197 341 83 65
> 25 221 317 107 41
> 26 189 349 75 73
> 27 207 331 93 55
> 28 188 350 74 74
> 29 192 346 78 70
> 30 179 359 65 83
> 31 190 348 65 83
> 32 211 327 97 51
> 33 158 380 44 104
> 34 200 338 86 62
> 35 208 330 94 54
> 36 197 341 83 65
> 37 224 314 110 38
> 38 212 326 83 65
> 39 198 340 73 75
> 40 216 322 91 57
> 41 192 346 78 70
> 42 195 343 81 67
> 43 202 336 88 60
> 44 132 406 14 134
> 45 218 320 104 44
> 46 177 361 63 85
> 47 247 291 129 19
> 48 204 334 90 58
> 49 246 292 132 16
> 50 195 343 81 67
> 51 257 281 132 16
> 52 178 360 64 84
> 53 243 295 129 19
> 54 150 388 29 119
> 55 223 315 109 39
> 56 205 333 91 57
> 57 127 411 13 135
> 58 201 337 78 70
> 59 239 299 107 41
> 60 186 352 72 76
> 61 246 292 132 16
> 62 217 321 103 45
> 63 214 324 96 52
> 64 210 328 96 52
> 65 200 338 86 62
> 66 211 327 97 51
> 67 138 400 24 124
> 68 200 338 86 62
> 69 244 294 107 41
> 70 182 356 68 80
> 71 225 313 111 37
> 72 203 335 89 59
> 73 178 360 64 84
> 74 212 326 91 57
> 75 190 348 67 81
> 76 218 320 104 44
> 77 189 349 75 73
> 78 193 345 79 69
> 79 203 335 89 59
> 80 218 320 93 55
> 81 221 317 96 52
> 82 205 333 91 57
> 83 192 346 78 70
> 84 218 320 104 44
> 85 229 309 115 33
> 86 225 313 111 37
> 87 211 327 97 51
> 88 213 325 88 60
> 89 210 328 96 52
> 90 217 321 92 56
> 91 234 304 109 39
> 92 209 329 95 53
> 93 228 310 114 34
> 94 215 323 101 47
> 95 189 349 75 73
> 96 223 315 109 39
> 97 237 301 123 25
> 98 235 303 121 27
> 99 186 352 72 76
> 100 197 341 83 65
>
> max 257 411 132 135
> min 127 281 13 16
> avg 204.59 333.41 88.55 59.45
>
>
>
>
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